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Flying Dutchman

  • #841
  • Feb 17, 2022 2:35am Feb 17, 2022 2:35am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Kevin, Pete and I will have a chat and perhaps get you on Skype......

Quoting ohitsyou
I should have gone fishing...


Yep, I'm up for a chat OIY, for sure, I would have definately enjoyed a beer you suggested earlier


(bringing George into your post from left field like that was just sorta like ringin' a bell to an old boxer lol that's all)

Peace
  • #842
  • Feb 17, 2022 2:39am Feb 17, 2022 2:39am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} {quote} Yep, I'm up for a chat OIY, for sure, I would have definately enjoyed a beer you suggested earlier (bringing George into your post from left field like that was just sorta like ringin' a bell to an old boxer lol that's all) Peace

Gotta be careful bringing Kevin in, he does like a Babycham...
  • #843
  • Feb 17, 2022 3:02am Feb 17, 2022 3:02am
GBPJPY

Yep, they just ran that same Inflection line, with its (new, now) George Target, again. Five hours later.

Pair has been well worked.


All to do with future risk on/off, maybe
where are the fundamentalists or the war correspondents when you need them


This positional market behaviour has to move its' current structure at some point folks.
Don't be thinking they will "stay around" this same fire pit for ever (but they will remember it imho).
Above is 157.420 and below is 154.910, while they've pretty much done their ADR already today.

I'm flat on all my trades now & only watching. Trade safe.

.
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  • #844
  • Edited 4:37am Feb 17, 2022 4:24am | Edited 4:37am
Fascinating chat overnight, haven't even had a chance to get myself a cuppa yet. There is much talk of systems etc, but I think the most insightful comments are TT regarding perspective. BWilliam had his perspective on the GJ move, and just to add a third (I am not trading this BTW) I decided to see if any other perspectives could be added to reasons as to why price went to that level. It didn't take much work, weekly VWAP as an example ? So there is another 'why'. We all know if you ask 50 different traders, you will get 50 different answers.

Which actually leads me to believe this, nobody claims to have the 'answer' as to why Forex behaves as it does. Maybe because quite simply there isn't one. I don't believe in 'manipulation' per se as I have already said, nor do I believe there is a system. I believe the market is an ever-changing entity that facilitates the needs of its various participants. Algo's are switched on an off to manage risk, risk is created by large institutional order flow that we can't even see, risk changes by the day for large institutions, valuations are moved with current affairs, the possibilities are endless and what different participants need from the market at any given time will vary hugely. I cannot see how you can make a 'system' of that, although if I was that clever I wouldn't have wasted time doing that, I would have invented the bottomless pint of lager that doesn't kill you.

I cannot believe that in 2022 that if there was a 'secret' operation to the market that it wouldn't have been exposed, but I do believe retailers (myself included) spend too much time over-thinking it, and I have spent years doing just that. I know a guy who gave up laying tarmac roads 9 months ago to trade crypto (yes I know, but bear with me). He got interested in it 18 months ago and found something that worked for him, enough to give up his job. Now the bubble may burst for him, but I can tell you it pi**ed me off causing me to look at my whole approach to trading and it reminded me of the old barrow boys in the East End of London who frequently made great traders. You can simply over-think it.

And I still am, but I am trying not to. Having said that, it is important not to stop learning, just keep that learning in perspective that is relevant to you.
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  • #845
  • Feb 17, 2022 4:39pm Feb 17, 2022 4:39pm
Quoting ohitsyou
I should have gone fishing...
How was the flight?

Are we over that 2 hr jet lag?
  • #846
  • Feb 17, 2022 5:51pm Feb 17, 2022 5:51pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} "Indicators are not consistent with master algo." (OK here's where you've already gone off course thinking you know what you dont know,,,, ....You're still butthurt that George used the term "USELESS indicators" and you are assuming indicators are part of the algo. They are not. They are tools used to help determine precise entries and exits. ) Master algoists believe price has already been determined, in which case indicators are useless (sound familiar?). Indicators are used to monitor price in real-time. If price has been pre-determined...

I use the simple lines every day that don't move. Like Kevin said "i think one would find that the worlds best day/swing traders use lines on their charts all in their own way"

https://gyazo.com/949cf77cdc53bac447230f7266555088


Dave
K.I.S.S.
  • #847
  • Feb 17, 2022 6:24pm Feb 17, 2022 6:24pm
Quoting fmsfx
{quote} I use the simple lines every day that don't move. Like Kevin said "i think one would find that the worlds best day/swing traders use lines on their charts all in their own way" https://gyazo.com/949cf77cdc53bac447230f7266555088 Dave
Those won’t work mate .. wrong colour!!
  • #848
  • Feb 17, 2022 10:58pm Feb 17, 2022 10:58pm
Quoting fmsfx
{quote} I use the simple lines every day that don't move. Like Kevin said "i think one would find that the worlds best day/swing traders use lines on their charts all in their own way" https://gyazo.com/949cf77cdc53bac447230f7266555088 Dave
So you just trade round numbers?
  • #849
  • Feb 17, 2022 11:20pm Feb 17, 2022 11:20pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} So you just trade round numbers?
I think I can safely say there are several hundred on going calculations taken before fmsfx arrives at a line on the chart…
  • #850
  • Edited 12:55am Feb 18, 2022 12:41am | Edited 12:55am
I quite like the look of AUDCHF short from next week.
My analysis suggests the sun is shining so the Aussies will head south to the beach ....

And if I'm wrong.... move on. At least the BBQ was good...
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  • #851
  • Feb 18, 2022 7:31am Feb 18, 2022 7:31am
Quoting Merka
{quote} So you just trade round numbers?
Andy is right I do look at my excel sheet for a signal, but I prefer for my signals too show up at or around those lines. You can use/create any type of entry system you like and apply rounds number to it as a guide. Over the years of trading, I can say the most important thing to learn is money management. No matter your system if the money management is not solid you will go bust eventually. You can make your entry system as simple or complex as you like but don't leave out money management. I prefer simple.

https://gyazo.com/b60344acf9b3c0d3f05494a76fb1c490


Dave
K.I.S.S.
  • #852
  • Feb 19, 2022 2:00am Feb 19, 2022 2:00am
Borrowed this pic from another thread. See the difference. Forex is full of trickery.
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Know what you trade
  • #853
  • Feb 19, 2022 2:32am Feb 19, 2022 2:32am
Quoting BWilliam
Borrowed this pic from another thread. See the difference. Forex is full of trickery. {image} {image}

Hi BW,
Interesting, hardly any horizontal lines on the borrowed one
  • #854
  • Feb 19, 2022 2:39am Feb 19, 2022 2:39am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Hi Pete, lets throw in more organisational regularity into that move. Lol. Cheers {image}

I liked the chart of yours better lol, in the above your "quoted" post
it had an imbedded meaning (well to me)


And more interesting as I now look at it again.

Interesting to me in the fact that you employed maths base
(and I have thanked you before, suggesting I also look down that road)


Referring your chart, where from my chart prior, showed me a Build Up Around Inflection around that small green ellipse before the major candle drop

see chart here
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post13900305


I wonder what would be the trading setup, which a trader could choose to use, and then sell into that point

(where the market sold off in a wild candle - and yes, war imminent could account for this, but how would a trader generally predict in advance, ie intent,
I would have to wait for some confirmation or, just go with the flow in the moment)
  • #855
  • Feb 19, 2022 3:47am Feb 19, 2022 3:47am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} I liked the chart of yours better lol, in the above your "quoted" post it had an imbedded meaning (well to me) And more interesting as I now look at it again. Interesting to me in the fact that you employed maths base (and I have thanked you before, suggesting I also look down that road) Referring your chart, where from my chart prior, showed me a Build Up Around Inflection around that small green ellipse before the major candle drop see chart here https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post13900305 I wonder what would...
Hi Pete, base on these 4 pics, which is more compelling, sell at the top or buy from the bottom?
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Know what you trade
  • #856
  • Feb 19, 2022 3:53am Feb 19, 2022 3:53am
GJ sell.
  • #857
  • Feb 19, 2022 4:29am Feb 19, 2022 4:29am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Hi Pete, base on these 4 pics, which is more compelling, sell at the top or buy from the bottom? {image} {image} {image} {image}
Quoting moodybot
GJ sell.

Hi BW & Andy,

Sell, Agree.

BW asked which was more compelling to me a BUY or SELL based on the Weekly, Daily, 4-Hourly, Hourly.

BW’s 1 Day chart had me in “RANGING” where I could either buy or sell
and the 1 Hour was the same ‘RANGING” (between my two closest Inflections and a couple of George’s Targets at the edges.)


However, what did I eventually do, I guess, in the speed of it all.

Quoting TimeTells
{quote}
I entered late at the end of the spike looking after it hit George’s Target at 156.190
The trade was not taken immediately, I waited 7 x 1min bars for this purely discretionary trade and was closed TP at 10 pips after comms

I use my 1day Chart with some linear curves, and my 1hr with mostly horizontal target lines with some (VERY lightly coloured bands/envs - cheers pboy),
so in a combo of both timeframes I would have SOLD at the top and/or BOUGHT at the bottom, preferring a sell while watching not trading.
(as mentioned above my trade was actually a buy lol - but later, after a sustained selloff move towards & reaching BOTH a target & inflection area)


The big candle in question happened very quickly, so I rarely (any more) try to pick any reversal point, as I have no data, merely visuals to work with.

So I waited till the big candle “stopped” at a George Target which was a couple of pips above my low Inflection, slipped down the 1 min chart (my trade “entry” chart) and waited 7 x 1min candles and bought the new directional buy momentum for about 10 pips (the move went 30p but I know what I require and I close TP at my own smaller needs).


(THIS discussion also brings me to another ‘thought’ I have been mulling for quite a while, and I will try and express it in writing, many will say ‘wtf’ probably, but bear with me later).


ANDY, I would have imagined you would have chosen BW’s - Weekly Chart ?, you are the 1wk Chart king imvho.
  • #858
  • Feb 19, 2022 5:05am Feb 19, 2022 5:05am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} {quote} Hi BW & Andy, Sell, Agree. BW asked which was more compelling to me a BUY or SELL based on the Weekly, Daily, 4-Hourly, Hourly. BW’s 1 Day chart had me in “RANGING” where I could either buy or sell and the 1 Hour was the same ‘RANGING” (between my two closest Inflections and a couple of George’s Targets at the edges.) However, what did I eventually do, I guess, in the speed of it all. {quote} I use my 1day Chart with some linear curves, and my 1hr with mostly horizontal target lines with some (VERY lightly coloured bands/envs - cheers...
Straight line on a Weekly Pete… Long distance roadmap
  • #859
  • Feb 19, 2022 5:28am Feb 19, 2022 5:28am
Quoting moodybot
{quote}
Straight line on a Weekly Pete… Long distance roadmap

I've seen you go from the North Pole to the South Pole, from that straight line (plus a local gps) Andy, very impressive sir.
  • #860
  • Edited 11:03am Feb 19, 2022 9:58am | Edited 11:03am
Very cool thread so I thought I would make a quick vid for those that may be looking to trade some lines. Again, this just how I trade some lines with a few things learned over the years.

EDIT: I want to be clear to when I say Andy shares with me that doesn't mean he shares his edge(everyone has an edge). I mean he shares in the way I can bounce a idea off him and vice versa. I should also add that I have had the privilege of meeting Andy and his family for about 2 weeks and that takes sharing to a whole different level when you have the same interest and meet face to face.


Inserted Video



Dave
K.I.S.S.
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