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  • #181
  • Jul 30, 2021 8:05pm Jul 30, 2021 8:05pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi H2T, Wow lol. You look at the world in a completely different way to myself. But that is okay. I do not say I am right and you are wrong. Just different. I will say that what you see as bragging, I see as someone just posting what THEY see in the markets. That has been helpful to me in my short period in Forex (bout 4 years now). And when someone posts what they SEE in the markets, bragging is the last thing I work on in my assessment of that post lol. What I do is, immediately open up my own personal template, and CHECK their trade or...
I am mostly referring to people who post screenshots of how much money they supposedly made. I don't see the point. It's just bragging. I think it is more useful to post a trading plan, and then people can see if it works out.

Yes, I have been burned. But the Forex market is not where I have been burned most. Where I REALLY got burned bad was in the crypto market! I learned some hard lessons in that market. I have become a better trader as a result of getting burned. But I am also quite skeptical because I got burned!
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #182
  • Jul 30, 2021 8:07pm Jul 30, 2021 8:07pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Actually, I agree with the CFTC regarding FIFO...
Of course you do!
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #183
  • Jul 30, 2021 8:11pm Jul 30, 2021 8:11pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} I am mostly referring to people who post screenshots of how much money they supposedly made. I don't see the point. It's just bragging. I think it is more useful to post a trading plan, and then people can see if it works out. Yes, I have been burned. But the Forex market is not where I have been burned most. Where I REALLY got burned bad was in the crypto market! I learned some hard lessons in that market. I have become a better trader as a result of getting burned. But I am also quite skeptical because I got burned!...




Yes, myself I prefer to just see a chart pic of where the trade BEGAN (more so than exit).

And from that I can assess it against my own understandings.


Though if the 'money' screenshot shows the Trade Start Time & Price taken I can use that okay. Just that a visual chart is best for my older eyes.

all the best
  • #184
  • Jul 30, 2021 8:11pm Jul 30, 2021 8:11pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} That is how I view target. I like to trade to them, then observe PA to make trade decisions from there. That is what bankers do, and you saw that play out in PA as your level was hit. They had quite a conversation today as they debated where to go next. I reviewed my trading notes in review of how that level was created, how the target below was created, then hit, and the subsequent PA that brought us back to where we are today (basically, the story of the chart you posted). No mystery entity, just greedy bankers doing what they do.
The bankers had a conversation as to where to go next, yep, I get that.
So in the case of forex the pairs are derived from two currencies such as Euro and US Dollar.
So if they want to hit a level as derived from your notes on EURUSD they have to manipulate either Euro or US Dollar, strength against weakness, so as to hit a required target.
By manipulating one or other of the two currencies wouldn't that mess up another pair elsewhere, associated with the two currencies?
To then manipulate all of the available currencies to hit targets available on all pairs then that's going to take a lot more than just adding subtracting money into the market. There has to be collusion at the highest level.
If they were manipulating the pair, EURUSD, then that would suggest to me that EURUSD is n a loop of its own and not directly tied to a real currency, Euro or USD, in essence a market based UPON but not directly controlled by real world currencies.
In other words an Algo.
  • #185
  • Edited 10:58pm Jul 30, 2021 8:44pm | Edited 10:58pm
Quoting here2there
I think the market makers approach to trading is much more sophisticated than anything we know.
The following charts demonstrate the sophistication level. Look at the precision of manipulation that moodybot wrote about here.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post13649846

Andy's question,
"By manipulating one or other of the two currencies wouldn't that mess up another pair elsewhere, associated with the two currencies?"

Or did the bankers colluded global supply and demand for all 3 pairs "independently" with such precision ?


If only traders try understand the implication of the manipulation shown by these charts.

Quoting TimeTells
I will say though, the E$ charts levels that I posted were on my charts well prior to any supply & demand happening around that level at a later stage. (So do the bankers have those same levels, I am now considering lol, cheers) all the best Pete
The key word is well prior.

Imo following the intent of the master algo gives the real edge over this forex market. Knowing something will happen in the future or inversely knowing the opposite something will not happen in the future.

Quoting FXEZ
The real question that the OP should be asking isn't how to differentiate between fake price series and real price series (though kudos to the poster for the link with the identification game - after one round I figured out the common denominator and on the next round went 20 for 20. Perhaps the OP had better reexamine his/her beliefs with regards to the perceived "crucial weakness" with the MIT study). The better question is what is the true nature of price series - and what are the exploitable characteristics of the underlying nature?....

But you take them all and put them together and you have a dynamic system that can be represented in a price distribution that has definable characteristics. What are they and which of them can be exploited? Perhaps that question would put you on the right path. (as an aside, Can future transactions be predicted before they happen? This is the stuff that trading edges are built from - ....)
To me the rest are guessing. Common knowledge of market structure basics is simply not good enough.
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  • #186
  • Jul 30, 2021 8:49pm Jul 30, 2021 8:49pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} I will say though, the E$ charts levels that I posted were on my charts well prior to any supply & demand happening around that level at a later stage. (So do the bankers have those same levels, I am now considering lol, cheers) all the best Pete
Yes, it's been a target for quite a long time. And yes. It's on the bankers charts. Hope you have a good weekend!
  • #187
  • Jul 30, 2021 9:16pm Jul 30, 2021 9:16pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} The bankers had a conversation as to where to go next, yep, I get that. So in the case of forex the pairs are derived from two currencies such as Euro and US Dollar. So if they want to hit a level as derived from your notes on EURUSD they have to manipulate either Euro or US Dollar, strength against weakness, so as to hit a required target. By manipulating one or other of the two currencies wouldn't that mess up another pair elsewhere, associated with the two currencies? To then manipulate all of the available currencies to hit targets available...
Hi moodybot. No, that's not what going on at all. If bankers (from all over the world) push to target, say the target on TimeTell's E$ chart, they have a reason to do so. If they have no reason, they target something else, or move in a range. The movement is based on S/D, to targets, for intended reasons. Manipulation occurs at a different level, takes time to implement, and happens in the context of financial and economic structure. Think moving the A$ from 1.0300 to .7050, or fixing the Yuan every day. What bankers do, every day, is conduct international currency transactions, plus. They keep their transactions, plus a few other things, within the confines of set structure, as "agreed upon" within the global economic system.
  • #188
  • Jul 30, 2021 9:22pm Jul 30, 2021 9:22pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Quoting TimeTells
The key word is well prior.

Imo following the intent of the master algo gives the real edge over this forex market. Knowing something will happen in the future or inversely knowing the opposite something will not happen in the future.

To me the rest are guessing.

Cheers BW,

I did remember what you had suggested to myself & others.


Quoting TimeTells
I put up my own (algo target line) post four days ago mainly for BW as he responded to my earlier post here with his own chart.

BW did encourage me, and others, some three months back to investigate mathematically the prospect that the market works to a repeating principle.

And if it does, for me and others to then consider whether this repeating principle lay in maths.

And IF IT WAS in maths then it was likely to be an automated process (ie an algo).
  • #189
  • Jul 30, 2021 9:35pm Jul 30, 2021 9:35pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Hi moodybot. No, that's not what going on at all. If bankers (from all over the world) push to target, say the target on TimeTell's E$ chart, they have a reason to do so. If they have no reason, they target something else, or move in a range. The movement is based on S/D, to targets, for intended reasons. Manipulation occurs at a different level, takes time to implement, and happens in the context of financial and economic structure. Think moving the A$ from 1.0300 to .7050, or fixing the Yuan every day. What bankers do, every day, is conduct...

If they push to target I get that, we can see the move on the chart, the target before it happens.
How are they doing it? Moving price or moving the chart to fit.
Has to be price.
Price is connected to Base and Quote.
In old school either manipulate Base or Quote to have desired effect of moving price... my issue is that will move another pair, somewhere.
The data has to be tied so as to not move one into bankers favour but move another one out of bankers favour.
Time and again we see pairs allegedly unconnected hit targets at the same time.
For me the illusion is the pairs move with currency manipulation, yes manipulated, but only by an Algo.
The Algo for each pair is based on real data, based only, not controlled by.
They have to demonstrate a change in a currency strength is replicated on the chart, and that's the illusion.
The Algo has one job... set an attractive price, induce stops, move price away, revisit, collect stops.
That's it.
  • #190
  • Jul 30, 2021 10:31pm Jul 30, 2021 10:31pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} If they push to target I get that, we can see the move on the chart, the target before it happens. How are they doing it? Moving price or moving the chart to fit. Has to be price. Price is connected to Base and Quote. In old school either manipulate Base or Quote to have desired effect of moving price... my issue is that will move another pair, somewhere. The data has to be tied so as to not move one into bankers favour but move another one out of bankers favour. Time and again we see pairs allegedly unconnected hit targets at the same time....
Right, All the majors are tied to the USD. They move with relation to the USD, so they often move to targets together, as you'd expect. But sometimes, an economy will see a shift it its fundamentals, and will deviate from its previous path. But eventually, they all get sync'd up again, with the USD being the common element. If you see the E$ falling, the USD is gaining strength. If the USD is gaining strength, it likely is gaining strength against the GBP, JPY, etc. If the USD strength is determined to be in the 200 pip range against the EURO, it's a pretty easy calculation to determine the move against the GBP and JPY. And things move...to targets. Price doesn't move just for grins. It moves for a reason. And that reason is true across the world, and therefore, against all other currencies.

The basics of currency valuation can be found in studying currency models. Some of the well-known models are not very accurate, but the basics are the same. It might be worth a google search.
  • #191
  • Jul 30, 2021 11:12pm Jul 30, 2021 11:12pm
Quoting GEfx
Price doesn't move just for grins. It moves for a reason. And that reason is true across the world, and therefore, against all other currencies.
By reason you mean fundamental reason or supply and demand economics reason. Try explain why price fell sharply to day low then ? Which part of the statement caused the plunge ?

Better still for fundamental analysis traders to trade without a chart. If their analysis tells them a currency is strengthening simply press the buy button regardless of the price. Since price moves for a reason, right.

There're plenty of red news release every trading day. Try make market direction buy/sell calls since price has to move for a reason and the "reason" has just been officially announced. Make sure you don't have the chart in front of you, no cheating.
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  • #192
  • Jul 31, 2021 12:32am Jul 31, 2021 12:32am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} By reason you mean fundamental reason or supply and demand economics reason. Try explain why price fell sharply to day low then ? Which part of the statement caused the plunge ? Better still for fundamental analysis traders to trade without a chart. If their analysis tells them a currency is strengthening simply press the buy button regardless of the price. Since price moves for a reason, right. There're plenty of red news release every trading day. Try make market direction buy/sell calls since price has to move for a reason and the "reason"...
Hi BWiliam, hope you are well. I'm not sure what you are asking me to do with the chart. Price does move for a reason, but I'm not sure how to use a 5M chart in that analysis. Please elaborate what you have in mind. Keep in mind, from the many previous post on FF where I have said, that fundamentals impact structure which is usually seen on the 4H or Day chart, and technicals are on the 4H to 1H for trade analysis and prep. It's late here so maybe we could pick this up tomorrow. Have a good one!
  • #193
  • Jul 31, 2021 12:58am Jul 31, 2021 12:58am
EU dropped last quarter approx. 460pips. FOMC statement released last wednesday with a bullish gain of 55pips. What guidance in market direction for the future market(2 months) of this quarter ? How does the fundamental analysis trader use news releases(FOMC) to form the reason for the future market direction of his trades ? A live demonstration of FA with this particular case.
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  • #194
  • Jul 31, 2021 9:42am Jul 31, 2021 9:42am
Quoting BWilliam
EU dropped last quarter approx. 460pips. FOMC statement released last wednesday with a bullish gain of 55pips. What guidance in market direction for the future market(2 months) of this quarter ? How does the fundamental analysis trader use news releases(FOMC) to form the reason for the future market direction of his trades ? A live demonstration of FA with this particular case. {image}
What I'm about to say is how I work through FA in working through structure.

I think the first point to make is that the actual impact of any FA is not just the initial reaction, but is determined by the background use of the fundamental. So, you see the market react to a FA, and then sit back and watch how that FA gets processed through the mechanisms of the global financial market. That can be a difficult thing to watch unfold, but I think you see that in the last 2 FOMC meeting. In June, the reaction was an immediate drop of about 300 pips on the E$, then as the FA got absorbed by other markets, which is a slower process, you saw a slower but steady fall in the E$. Last weeks' FOMC meeting changed the landscape a bit, and the initial reaction was to reverse some of the last meeting's response. and that move completed a reversal of the "after June FOMC" movement (we completed a square of the post June FOMC movement). Go back even farther on the charts, and you will see that the structural move down to the recent lows, actually squared up the last up move in structure, which started in early May.

So how does the up move over the last two days fit into structure? It's still unfolding, but so far, it is supportive of current structure, and I'll continue to view it as supportive until next Friday, when NFP rolls out, or until a equally important FA rolls out of the EU. But, the fact that the E$ has bounced off that square up level from May is worth noting, and there is a smaller area just below that will be the target next week prior to NFP. My bias remains sell. But it won't take much to change structure, if the fundamentals support a move to square up the May 5 sharp move, which structurally is very valid at this time.

That's how I prepare for the next few months.
  • #195
  • Edited 12:03pm Aug 1, 2021 11:40am | Edited 12:03pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} If they push to target I get that, we can see the move on the chart, the target before it happens. How are they doing it? Moving price or moving the chart to fit. Has to be price. Price is connected to Base and Quote. In old school either manipulate Base or Quote to have desired effect of moving price... my issue is that will move another pair, somewhere. The data has to be tied so as to not move one into bankers favour but move another one out of bankers favour. Time and again we see pairs allegedly unconnected hit targets at the same time....
Hi Andy, as I wrote to you few months back I can mark precise intraday algo swing levels for any pair with the calculated math. Today(Sunday) I chose BTCUSD which I don't trade to make intraday live calls. I decide to leave those posts as evidence of this master algo manipulating price rather than the widely believed supply demand economics. Check the charts for the conclusion of the swing. This is what I mean by knowing something will happen in the future or knowing the opposite other will not happen.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post13650337
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post13650344
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post13650437
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post13650477
Know what you trade
  • #196
  • Aug 1, 2021 2:21pm Aug 1, 2021 2:21pm
BWilliam, I don't trade bitcoin, but I'll keep an eye on it this week, and please post your thoughts on how the week unfolds.

Every week, I spend time updating my market structure analysis of the 10 pairs I trade. To maintain continuity with the last few posts, I thought I'd share my E$ chart from my work today. Here are a few comments on this 8H chart: 1. I think there is a 30% chance that the market will make a run at the A and B price levels, in an effort to square up the May 5 FOMC meeting; 2. I think there is a 30% chance that the market will take a run at the C and D price level; 3. I think there is a 40% chance the market will work into a trading range for a few days. These three scenarios are supportive of the current structure. If PA exceeds level B, then I would spend time re-considering my current thinking on the structure of the E$. Today, however, I will start putting together an technical analysis of PA and prepare for battle tonight/tomorrow.

Good trading everyone!
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  • #197
  • Aug 1, 2021 4:02pm Aug 1, 2021 4:02pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Andy, as I wrote to you few months back I can mark precise intraday algo swing levels for any pair with the calculated math. Today(Sunday) I chose BTCUSD which I don't trade to make intraday live calls. I decide to leave those posts as evidence of this master algo manipulating price rather than the widely believed supply demand economics. Check the charts for the conclusion of the swing. This is what I mean by knowing something will happen in the future or knowing the opposite other will not happen. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post13650337...
Hey BW

It takes gonads to place up a live trade call, but to predict future price levels, that takes it to a new level.
I can be reasonably clear as to when a new swing cycle has started, I can look at previous set targets by the Algo, but timing of when the targets are hit, that for me is where the real mathematics come into play.
If you have cracked the timing element, that would be the holy grail but in any case, placing live calls, kudos to you.
I know other traders such as Rick , Pete (Time Tells) etc are also very adept at trading and could place live calls but on 1min timeframe, almost impossible to mess with Forex Factory while trading.
Thanks for the post.
  • #198
  • Aug 1, 2021 4:06pm Aug 1, 2021 4:06pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} What I'm about to say is how I work through FA in working through structure. I think the first point to make is that the actual impact of any FA is not just the initial reaction, but is determined by the background use of the fundamental. So, you see the market react to a FA, and then sit back and watch how that FA gets processed through the mechanisms of the global financial market. That can be a difficult thing to watch unfold, but I think you see that in the last 2 FOMC meeting. In June, the reaction was an immediate drop of about 300...

Hi GEFx

Thanks for taking the time to post, although I do not look at Fundies it does bring an interesting element to the discussion and traders (including myself) looking in will appreciate you taking the time.

Cheers
  • #199
  • Edited 7:53pm Aug 1, 2021 7:20pm | Edited 7:53pm
EURUSD suposedly the most traded pair in Forex.

Traded so much that there is usually ZERO spread on the pair.

(Isn't that interesting - we know the brokers get the commish, and I always imagined the LPs get the spread - but with zero spread, someone or thing () certainly wants THE business).


Cheers GEfx and BW for putting up your interesting 8 hr and 4 hr charts, here's my small offering on the pair on my Daily view.

( I have & seek no real preconceived ideas of direction, as when I trade its on the smaller TFs, but when a perceived directional confirmation is in play I then look at my outer targets for trade direction - not the actual targets themselves).


All the best to all on a new month and NFP week

(isn't August when traditionally the big Northen Hemisphere players have their summer holidays - maybe with the global pandemic situation that will change this year as many will have been on temporary longterm holidays anyway by virtue of the lockdowns and stay-at-home directives ?)

.
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  • #200
  • Aug 1, 2021 9:03pm Aug 1, 2021 9:03pm
Quoting TimeTells
EURUSD suposedly the most traded pair in Forex. Traded so much that there is usually ZERO spread on the pair. (Isn't that interesting - we know the brokers get the commish, and I always imagined the LPs get the spread - but with zero spread, someone or thing () certainly wants THE business). Cheers GEfx and BW for putting up your interesting 8 hr and 4 hr charts, here's my small offering on the pair on my Daily view. ( I have & seek no real preconceived ideas of direction, as when I trade its on the smaller TFs, but when a perceived directional...
Hi Timetells

EURUSD is my primary trading market I trade so let’s for fun post a few charts this week to see if we can spot some unusual activity occurring this week.

The no spread cost of trading this pair makes trading Liquidity imbalances a very profitable venture for me.
The issue is always volume and activity.
Will they offer us enough activity and price expansion to be able to profit tonight.

I have my targets already marked and waiting for London open.

Lets see how it plays out.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
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