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  • #21
  • May 4, 2021 8:51pm May 4, 2021 8:51pm
That's enough for today so I'll leave you with this:

https://youtu.be/DFod6V3Q68k

We'll pick it up tomorrow.
  • #22
  • May 4, 2021 9:46pm May 4, 2021 9:46pm
Quoting Winston Reed
Let's go back to our 15min EURUSD chart. In this first chart the red notations identify impulses and correctives with their HHs, HLs, LHs and LLs in the context of the data that fits into my screen. We can also just call them swings. That means that there are smaller swings making up the impulse and corrective legs of the larger swings. {image} In this chart I've taken a segment of one corrective swing and zoomed in to show the smaller swings in more detail. {image} Is this revealing to you? It is to me!!!
From the second chart I've observed that if market starts moving up/down without completing the leg then we should wait for the market to make a LL/HL.
Simply put, a move is incomplete if a new HH HL or a new LH LL is not formed.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #23
  • May 4, 2021 10:18pm May 4, 2021 10:18pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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in every swing there is always small swing on lower time frame, the hard part is how do you define the swing high/low based on your time frame because what do you see the swing now it could be swing high/low on higher time frame


regards,
Tom
  • #24
  • Edited May 5, 2021 2:17am May 4, 2021 10:47pm | Edited May 5, 2021 2:17am
Quoting tomdachi
{image} in every swing there is always small swing on lower time frame, the hard part is how do you define the swing high/low based on your time frame because what do you see the swing now it could be swing high/low on higher time frame regards, Tom
Keep things simple by using only one timeframe to identify your trend. After witnessing a lot of brutal volatile days, I found the weekly to be the most reliable in indicating ongoing trend. Most trends identified in the lower timeframes were short and bouncy ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #25
  • May 5, 2021 6:22am May 5, 2021 6:22am
hello Winston,

Can you place HH, HL, LL, LH and hh, hl, ll, lh please.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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For the moment I totally agree with your approach to trading however it is far from easy to distinguish in "real time" if the corrective legs are over or if it will range etc.
  • #26
  • May 5, 2021 7:12am May 5, 2021 7:12am
Good morning! First let's start off the day with some Royal Tea!
https://youtu.be/G9z5iVNGeRA
  • #27
  • May 5, 2021 7:25am May 5, 2021 7:25am
Quoting tomdachi
{image} in every swing there is always small swing on lower time frame, the hard part is how do you define the swing high/low based on your time frame because what do you see the swing now it could be swing high/low on higher time frame regards, Tom
Hello tomdachi,

That's actually a great model chart showing smaller swings within larger swings. It's perfect. I'll be talking about this in more detail. But first let's talk about something very important.

You mentioned "higher time frame" bringing up one of the biggest causes of the trading blues: "Multi-Time-Frame-Analysis" (MTFA).

MTFA is one of those things I put into the category of insanity. Everybody is doing it but why? I know why. Because everybody's doin' it. It does nothing. It's a waste of time. Stop doing it and just use one time frame that suits your lifestyle. If you like getting in and out and closing trades out at days end then trade one lower time frame and trade it by itself. Don't look at the 15 minute time frame for a trade then make an entry based on the 5 minute. Make your trading decision solely on the merits of one time frame. Stop doing it now and be free of such drivel.
  • #28
  • May 5, 2021 7:27am May 5, 2021 7:27am
Quoting 4for4
{quote} Keep things simple by using only one timeframe to identify your trend. After witnessing a lot of brutal volatile days, I found the weekly to be the most reliable in indicating ongoing trend. Most trends identified in the lower timeframes were short and bouncy ...
You made my point about using one time frame.

Regarding one time frame being better than another we need to understand that price is fractal. Trends occur on all time frames and there's no difference in their character based on time frame. The only difference will be in your trade management, targets and stop losses.
  • #29
  • May 5, 2021 7:49am May 5, 2021 7:49am
Quoting thomi
hello Winston, Can you place HH, HL, LL, LH and hh, hl, ll, lh please. {image} For the moment I totally agree with your approach to trading however it is far from easy to distinguish in "real time" if the corrective legs are over or if it will range etc.
This is the way I see it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #30
  • May 5, 2021 8:04am May 5, 2021 8:04am
Quoting thomi
hello Winston, Can you place HH, HL, LL, LH and hh, hl, ll, lh please. {image} For the moment I totally agree with your approach to trading however it is far from easy to distinguish in "real time" if the corrective legs are over or if it will range etc.
This is more in line with what I would be looking at if I was wanting to trade this. The larger swings are shown and it is in the context of the larger swings that I see the trend as being down. The smaller swings to the right constitute the current corrective leg which can either keep going up or go down.

Since in larger context the market is trending down I would be looking for a sell.

Looking closely at the nature of the smaller swings it is possible to discern that a possible turn towards the downside is in progress. I have signified this by the blue smaller letters. I've also noted with the red arrows what could have been very possible trades which are pretty much in "real time".

I don't want to get into the weeds with actual trading strategy because I can see there is much confusion and misunderstanding about trends in general. This confirms my hypothesis that the main reason traders are losing is because they do not have a foundation in the basics.

So I'll keep hammerin' away at trend knowledge for a while.

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  • #31
  • May 5, 2021 8:08am May 5, 2021 8:08am
Time for some Box Scaggs
https://youtu.be/zHo5cllgWmM
  • #32
  • May 5, 2021 8:17am May 5, 2021 8:17am
https://youtu.be/Ra2Qndv_xeE?list=PLUmnnNR3rRsTzSrsdmSUtuV3AyyZFJOBm
  • #33
  • May 5, 2021 8:22am May 5, 2021 8:22am
What a beautiful chart!

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  • #34
  • May 5, 2021 8:27am May 5, 2021 8:27am
Another one! Don't worry about the rectangles. We'll get in to those later. Just take in the structure of a trending market.

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  • #35
  • May 5, 2021 8:30am May 5, 2021 8:30am
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  • #36
  • May 5, 2021 8:34am May 5, 2021 8:34am
Cant get enough of Robert Cray!

https://youtu.be/DZMxbHqZs_Y?list=PLUmnnNR3rRsTzSrsdmSUtuV3AyyZFJOBm
  • #37
  • May 5, 2021 11:03am May 5, 2021 11:03am
Quoting Winston Reed
What a beautiful chart! {image}
Please don't get angry if this is too demanding.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Are these swing levels correct?
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #38
  • May 5, 2021 2:01pm May 5, 2021 2:01pm
Quoting Winston Reed
What a beautiful chart! {image}
it is!
i do not trade au, but if this is the high (1) i would look for buy in this area (2)

cheers
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Uncertainty of the market must be embraced and accepted.
  • #39
  • May 5, 2021 5:38pm May 5, 2021 5:38pm
Trend definition:

For us as SAD traders, we use the inter-relationship between supply and demand zones to define trends.
Supply zones being created and respected = Downtrend
Demand zones being created and respected = Uptrend
  • #40
  • May 6, 2021 1:36am May 6, 2021 1:36am
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