Nat Gas market is just boring. Daily range is decreased significantly as well. The market hardly moves until regular market open. At this time of the year, people are not very interested in nat gas trading...... https://youtu.be/yBtONa6T39U
- #2,981
- Mar 18, 2021 5:04am Mar 18, 2021 5:04am
- Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Lazy trader on D1 charts | 5,901 Posts
- #2,982
- Mar 18, 2021 8:52am Mar 18, 2021 8:52am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,089 Posts
{quote} Strong resistance ahead......... {image}
Watch crude oil price carefully.......
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #2,983
- Mar 18, 2021 8:57am Mar 18, 2021 8:57am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,089 Posts
{quote} I agree 100% with you. The ATR of Natural Gas has an average of 8.9 ticks for the last 10 days, 12.1 for the last 100 days and only 9.2 for the last 1,000 days. These ATR statistics indicate that trading Natural Gas is not only boring at this time of the year but is always boring
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #2,984
- Mar 18, 2021 2:44pm Mar 18, 2021 2:44pm
- Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Lazy trader on D1 charts | 5,901 Posts
- #2,985
- Mar 18, 2021 5:40pm Mar 18, 2021 5:40pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,089 Posts
{quote} {image} Watch crude oil price carefully.......
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #2,986
- Mar 18, 2021 6:35pm Mar 18, 2021 6:35pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,089 Posts
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natura...y-202103180638
Perhaps not a good timing to open new sell positions. Open interest is decreasing and some technical pull-back is expected due to oversold condition.........
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #2,987
- Mar 18, 2021 6:50pm Mar 18, 2021 6:50pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,089 Posts
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #2,988
- Mar 18, 2021 7:08pm Mar 18, 2021 7:08pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,089 Posts
The latest WCU. Commodity currencies are heading into final peak. Wait until you don't see much commodity headline news from Bloomberg or CNBC before you start shorting them. {image}
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #2,989
- Edited 11:41pm Mar 19, 2021 10:47pm | Edited 11:41pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,089 Posts
{quote} No matter what you say, I love /NG. I don't need to trade each and everyday. When price is condensed, it's sure ready to explode in either side like today. To measure this I use 200 EMA bollinger bands. IMHO, /NG's price action is rather clear and honest compared to forex or stock indices which have full of noise and manipulations.
1. It's much less sensitive to economic headline news such as NFP, Fed speech, Fed rates, employment data, ... etc. Weekly storage report is virtually the only headline news event which can move the market big.
2. Trading is centralized in NYMEX exchange. Unlike Forex or other OTC products, due to the regulations, market participants are now mostly trading nat gas with NYMEX futures market. As a result, it has higher transparency.
3. /NG is a real market with real supply and demand. For details read this: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post12608271
4. Less screen time. It usually moves from about an hour before regular market session (9:30 ET). I only need to focus on about 4-5 hours maximum. Occasionally, there are times when it can move big during European session but it's rare. This is a pattern and you know when this pattern changes.
5. It has decent liquidity and volatility. Spread is almost always 1 tick (or pip in forex term) and its ADR exceeds most forex major/minor pairs. Forex's volatility is up and down on yearly basis. It's no coincidence that Forex breakout traders usually trade high volatile minor pairs such as GBPAUD, EURNZD, EURAUD, GBPJPY, ...etc. Any serious traders ever trade such garbage products with tiny volumes?
6. Technicals works nice on /NG. Especially, it respects 50 & 200 EMA religiously. Actually, most conventional technical indicators are designed for commodity markets. Also, price action is more clear and honest in my opinion.
7. Strong seasonality. Nat gas is usually used in Winter heating demand and Summer electricity generation demand. Fundamentals is relatively simpler and easier to understand.
I don't like /NG because:
1. No mini or micro lot. The minimum size of /NG is one contract (1 lot in forex term). /QG is 1/4 sized of /NG but its minimum tick size is 0.005 (instead of 0.001 in /NG). You need more capital to trade as a result compared to forex, especially when you're a swing trader. By the way, when you trade 0.01 or 0.1 lot in forex, your counter party is your broker. ECN works only when you trade normal 1 lot at minimum.
2. One tick spread. At least nominal spread is bigger than major forex pairs which are usually below 0.5 pips. However, it's acceptable and slippage is more important than spread. /NG's spread and slippage is often better than /NQ (Nasdaq futures).
3. Charting is somewhat tricky. Due to monthly roll-over, continuous chart often looks inconsistent platform by platform especially on Daily or Weekly timeframes. It makes gauging historical support/resistance properly difficult.
4. Platform/data is not free. CME data is not free and can be expensive. I usually run +8 MT4 applications at the same time. This is not doable to average futures traders because of cost.
I glad I found /NG (thanks to Ricky) and hope this market continues to prosper in the future. Although I mostly trade /NG spread these days, I started enjoying /NG day trading as well.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #2,990
- Mar 20, 2021 10:55am Mar 20, 2021 10:55am
- Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Lazy trader on D1 charts | 5,901 Posts
{quote} I like /NG (NYMEX Futures. I don't recommend trading CFD) because: 1. It's much less sensitive to economic headline news such as NFP, Fed speech, Fed rates, employment data, ... etc. Weekly storage report is virtually the only headline news event which can move the market big. 2. Trading is centralized in NYMEX exchange. Unlike Forex or other OTC products, due to the regulations, market participants are now mostly trading nat gas with NYMEX futures market. As a result, it has higher transparency. 3. /NG is a real market with real supply...
- #2,991
- Edited 9:05pm Mar 20, 2021 8:35pm | Edited 9:05pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,089 Posts
{quote} My broker has a 0.4 to 0.5 ticks for NG so this is acceptable. If your spread is 1 tick it's way too high since the 10-day ATR is only 8.5 at the moment. On the other hand his swap rates are atrocious as you can see on the first chart which is my source chart for Renko. This chart is ideal to identify when to enter the market since I can see exactly where the price is as compared to the Renko brick. On that chart each aqua/red line represents 1 minute. The second chart represents last week and as you can see the difference between high and...
I prefer ADR to gauge daily volatility. As CFD terms are different broker by broker, it's confusing sometimes. The following is from my forex broker IC Markets. The first one is Nat Gas, and the second one for GBPNZD: (Theses numbers may different broker by broker because brokers have different calculation methods and different server time. It looks my broker calculate ADR of nat gas about 10 times bigger than forex.)
The following is last Friday's ADR of each pairs: (source: myfxbook.com)
EURUSD (pip value = $10) had about $820 move while /NG had $1000 move (tick/pip value = $10) and GBPNZD had $1380 move (pip value = $6.62).
Last Friday, /NG moved about $1000 range. Recent /NG daily high/low move is about $1000. (One tick spread is $10). It's generally low at this time of the year due to seasonality. During Summer or Winder time however, it's generally $1200 - $1500 range. Although GBPNZD has nominal higher ADR, considering U.S. dollar nominated pip value of GBPNZD (which is currently $6.6) and its higher spread/slippage, I'd rather prefer /NG. Lastly, as you may know, high ADR pairs are notorious for their wild price actions with sudden spikes all around.
As you can see below, high ADR pairs have tiny volumes:
(The following is from myfxbook.com. It's from their users data.)
Also, /NG doesn't charge ridiculous daily swap. In addition, many discount futures brokers provide reduced margin, so if you're a scalper, you don't need big account. The following is from my futures broker AMP Futures:
Considering all of these, to be honest, I have no idea why you prefer CFD to Futures at least in terms of nat gas trading.....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #2,992
- Mar 20, 2021 10:11pm Mar 20, 2021 10:11pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,089 Posts
{quote} I was also always curious why he mostly focuses on UGAZ or DGAZ..... Here he answers. https://youtu.be/KYMu4aRRIlw
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #2,993
- Mar 21, 2021 6:08am Mar 21, 2021 6:08am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,089 Posts
{quote} https://www.tradingschools.org/revie...res-the-proof/ Day Trading: Its for SUCKERS. Here’s the proof. Yeah, I know this headline is going to piss you off. But it’s true — day trading Futures (and stocks) is for suckers. And I have proof. We often hear through rumor and internet chatter that “90% of day traders fail.” But these have been just that — rumors. And innuendo, that courses through the veins of a ‘faultless’ internet. But we also know that the internet is a great fountain of disillusionment,...
Is Day Trading Profitable? Do Individual Day Traders Make Money? Evidence from Taiwan {image} https://youtu.be/n1hBH-InT_0 You're betting in a mission impossible....... Good luck.
Scientist Discovered Why Most Traders Lose Money – 24 Surprising Statistics
“95% of all traders fail” is the most commonly used trading related statistic around the internet. But no research paper exists that proves this number right. Research even suggests that the actual figure is much, much higher. In the following article we’ll show you 24 very surprising statistics economic scientists discovered by analyzing actual broker data and the performance of traders. Some explain very well why most traders lose money.
1. 80% of all day traders quit within the first two years.
2. Among all day traders, nearly 40% day trade for only one month. Within three years, only 13% continue to day trade. After five years, only 7% remain.
3. Traders sell winners at a 50% higher rate than losers. 60% of sales are winners, while 40% of sales are losers.
4. The average individual investor underperforms a market index by 1.5% per year. Active traders underperform by 6.5% annually.
5. Day traders with strong past performance go on to earn strong returns in the future. Though only about 1% of all day traders are able to predictably profit net of fees.
6. Traders with up to a 10 years negative track record continue to trade. This suggests that day traders even continue to trade when they receive a negative signal regarding their ability.
7. Profitable day traders make up a small proportion of all traders – 1.6% in the average year. However, these day traders are very active – accounting for 12% of all day trading activity.
8. Among all traders, profitable traders increase their trading more than unprofitable day traders.
9. Poor individuals tend to spend a greater proportion of their income on lottery purchases and their demand for lottery increases with a decline in their income.
10. Investors with a large differential between their existing economic conditions and their aspiration levels hold riskier stocks in their portfolios.
11. Men trade more than women. And unmarried men trade more than married men.
12. Poor, young men, who live in urban areas and belong to specific minority groups invest more in stocks with lottery-type features.
13. Within each income group, gamblers underperform non-gamblers.
14. Investors tend to sell winning investments while holding on to their losing investments.
15. Trading in Taiwan dropped by about 25% when a lottery was introduced in April 2002.
16. During periods with unusually large lottery jackpot, individual investor trading declines.
17. Investors are more likely to repurchase a stock that they previously sold for a profit than one previously sold for a loss.
18. An increase in search frequency [in a specific instrument] predicts higher returns in the following two weeks.
19. Individual investors trade more actively when their most recent trades were successful.
20. Traders don’t learn about trading. “Trading to learn” is no more rational or profitable than playing roulette to learn for the individual investor.
21. The average day trader loses money by a considerable margin after adjusting for transaction costs.
22. [In Taiwan] the losses of individual investors are about 2% of GDP.
23. Investors overweight stocks in the industry in which they are employed.
24. Traders with a high-IQ tend to hold more mutual funds and larger number of stocks. Therefore, benefit more from diversification effects.
Conclusion: Why Most Traders Lose Money Is Not Surprising Anymore
After going over these 24 statistics it’s very obvious to tell why traders fail. More often than not trading decisions are not based on sound research or tested trading methods, but on emotions, the need for entertainment and the hope to make a million dollars in your underwear. What traders always forget is that trading is a profession and requires skills that need to be developed over years. Therefore, be mindful about your trading decisions and the view you have on trading. Don’t expect to be a millionaire by the end of the year, but keep in mind the possibilities trading online has.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #2,994
- Mar 21, 2021 9:23am Mar 21, 2021 9:23am
- Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Lazy trader on D1 charts | 5,901 Posts
- #2,995
- Mar 21, 2021 9:43am Mar 21, 2021 9:43am
- Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Lazy trader on D1 charts | 5,901 Posts
{quote} {quote} https://tradeciety.com/24-statistics...rs-lose-money/ Scientist Discovered Why Most Traders Lose Money – 24 Surprising Statistics “95% of all traders fail” is the most commonly used trading related statistic around the internet. But no research paper exists that proves this number right. Research even suggests that the actual figure is much, much higher. In the following article we’ll show you 24 very surprising statistics economic scientists discovered by analyzing actual broker data and the performance of...
- #2,996
- Mar 21, 2021 7:20pm Mar 21, 2021 7:20pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,089 Posts
{quote} I think I've found cost-effective alternative to Advantage Futures. Sierra Futures (aka Stage5 Trading) can clear /HH via Gain Capital as clearing. They have much lower minimum deposit requirement compared to Advantage which requires $10K as minimum. However, they are still working on exchange recognized spread trading. I expect they're ready by next month.....{image} By the way, /NGJ21-/HHJ21 is also quite boring so far..... {image}
Anyway, if I bought it at 0.00500, I would be able to bail out by now. It looks like a safe bet.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #2,997
- Edited 7:36am Mar 22, 2021 6:23am | Edited 7:36am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,089 Posts
Natural Gas Futures vs. CFD (15M chart) {image} {image} There are clear reasons why U.S. government banned CFD trading......
Edit: Other user reported the same spike: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post13463116
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #2,998
- Mar 22, 2021 6:28am Mar 22, 2021 6:28am
- Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Lazy trader on D1 charts | 5,901 Posts
{quote} It finally starts moving..... Lazy boy......
- #2,999
- Mar 22, 2021 6:36am Mar 22, 2021 6:36am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,089 Posts
{quote} With NG's low ATR it's almost impossible to lose money unless the broker is like mine and charges huge swaps. I was going to try hedging but the swaps would double kill my account.
By the way, /HH is not available to CFD. Why don't you try some free demo of /NG. I think you like it. Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- #3,000
- Mar 22, 2021 8:02pm Mar 22, 2021 8:02pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 6,089 Posts
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci