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  • #2,841
  • Dec 25, 2020 3:17pm Dec 25, 2020 3:17pm
Hi Justin. Is this true?

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  • #2,842
  • Dec 26, 2020 6:40am Dec 26, 2020 6:40am
Quoting Hutch
Hi Justin. Is this true? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndpsJ1xcec8
May be.... Current left wing government is obviously pro-N.Korea and its closest ally China. They are also anti-America, although they pretend they are not. Their root is based on socialism or even communism. Also, historically, for thousands years China was a big brother to Korea. Korean kings used to swear their loyalty to Chinese kings. Now, China is trying to alienate S.Korea from U.S. allies. It was partially successful and S.Korea is now thought to be the weakest ring among U.S. allies. Good news is our left wing government is losing support from people for their political and economical incompetence. Also, people are more and more against China just like other Asian countries around China. I am an extreme right wing in political sense and hope right wing, pro-U.S. government win the election next year.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,843
  • Dec 28, 2020 10:12pm Dec 28, 2020 10:12pm
I bought this e-book from Amazon and found it's an unbelievable piece of shit. Just don't buy it.
It's too bad that I don't have a permission to leave my review comment to Amazon. People should know the writer is an asshole.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,844
  • Dec 29, 2020 3:59pm Dec 29, 2020 3:59pm
Quoting heispark
I bought this e-book from Amazon and found it's an unbelievable piece of shit. Just don't buy it. It's too bad that I don't have a permission to leave my review comment to Amazon. People should know the writer is an asshole. {image}
Many trading books for stocks, options, warrants, ETF and forex are pure crap although there are a few good ones. When I started trading I did not have a book but the best mind to show me how trading really works ... that was my father.
  • #2,845
  • Dec 29, 2020 9:56pm Dec 29, 2020 9:56pm
Quoting heispark
I bought this e-book from Amazon and found it's an unbelievable piece of shit. Just don't buy it. It's too bad that I don't have a permission to leave my review comment to Amazon. People should know the writer is an asshole. {image}
The problem in today's e-book market is because it's so easy to publish and sell ebooks, there are just so many garbages out there. Look at this sample page of this shit book. He even hadn't proper resource and time to review his English!
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It's shame to Amazon to sell such garbage. It even lists that shit on near the top of the suggested list.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,846
  • Edited 10:16pm Dec 31, 2020 9:08pm | Edited 10:16pm
Nat Gas is in a critical moment..... Up or down? Very interesting. My gut feeling is selling at this time is not very good idea.....
Currently I have March-April spread (widow maker spread) trading which is in some drawdown. It may end in BE or small loss. Anyway, it still has some time to recover.
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https://www.barchart.com/story/futur...ish-eia-report

Feb Nymex natural gas (NGG21) on Thursday closed sharply higher by +0.117 (+4.83%).

Feb nat-gas prices on Thursday rallied on continued short-covering from Monday's 3-month low. Nat-gas prices were able to shake off the bearish weekly EIA report where inventories showed a smaller-than-expected decline.

Nat-gas prices have recently been weak and tumbled to a 3-month low on Monday due to the outlook for above-average U.S. temperatures to curb heating demand for nat-gas. The National Weather Service on Monday said that heating demand for nat-gas across the U.S. for the week ending January 2 is forecast to be -20% below the long-term average for this time of year. The Commodity Weather Group on Wednesday said that the eastern and southern U.S. states are poised for higher-than-normal temperatures through at least January 13.

The longer-term outlook for warmer-than-normal U.S. winter temperatures is bearish for nat-gas prices. Maxar predicts this winter will be the 13th warmest winter for energy demand going back to 1950. Also, the Climate Prediction Center said that this year's La Nina weather pattern would lead to warmer-than-normal winter temperatures from California to Florida that will reach up the East Coast.

Reduced demand from electricity providers is bearish for nat-gas prices. Edison Electric reported on Wednesday that U.S. electricity output for the week ending December 26 was down -7.6% y/y at 76,3479 GWh (gigawatt-hours) and that electricity output for the 52-week period ending December 26 was down -2.9% y/y at 3.924 million GWh.

Strength in foreign demand for U.S. nat-gas supplies is bullish for nat-gas prices as gas flows to U.S LNG export terminals on Thursday were up +28% y/y at about 10.9 bcf. On December 13, gas flows to LNG export terminals rose to a record high of 11.6 bcf (data from 2014), according to BNEF. Also, U.S. LNG exporters loaded a record 81 cargoes in November, breaking the previous record of 75 set last January.

U.S. nat-gas production continues to be weak, which is supportive of nat-gas prices. According to Bloomberg data, U.S. lower-48 state dry gas production on Thursday was down -5.1% y/y at about 90 bcf/d.

Thursday's weekly EIA report showed that nat-gas inventories the week of December 25 fell -114 bcf to 3.460 bcf, which was less than expectations of -128 bcf but larger than the 5-year average decline of -102 bcf. Inventories are up +8.4% y/y and are +6.3% above the 5-year average.

Baker Hughes on Wednesday reported that the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended January 1 was unchanged at an 8-1/4 month high of 83 rigs, modestly above the record low of 68 rigs posted in the week ended July 24 (data since 1987).

Big Picture Natural Gas Market Factors: Bearish factors include (1) the outlook for warmer-than-normal U.S. winter temperatures as Maxar predicts this winter will be the 13th warmest winter for energy demand going back to 1950, (2) the economic damage and reduced nat-gas demand caused by the Covid pandemic, (3) high U.S. nat gas inventories, which rose to a nearly 4-year high the week of Nov 13 to 3,958 bcf and are currently up +8.4% y/y and +6.3% above the 5-year average, (4) the narrowing in the March-April nat-gas spread that shrank to as low as -2.9 cents on Dec 23, a record low for the 2021 contracts and an indication that nat-gas supplies are expected to remain abundant this winter, and (5) the IEA's 2020 Gas report, which said that global nat-gas consumption would slump by a record -4% in 2020, or twice the amount lost after the 2008 financial crisis.

Bullish factors include (1) strong foreign demand for U.S. nat-gas as flows to U.S LNG export terminals on Dec 13 rose to a record 11.6 bcf (data from 2014) and after U.S. LNG exporters loaded a record 81 cargoes in November, breaking the previous record of 75 set last January, (2) significant U.S. LNG nat-gas export potential as more LNG ports are built in the U.S. and around the world, (3) expectations that the low level of oil prices will reduce shale drilling and natural gas extraction as a by-product, (4) hopes that China might start importing more U.S. LNG after the U.S./China phase-one trade deal called for China to boost its purchases of U.S. energy products by $52 billion over the next two years, and (5) a sharp drop in active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs to a record low of 68 rigs (data from 1987) in July, according to Baker Hughes.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,847
  • Jan 1, 2021 10:26am Jan 1, 2021 10:26am
I think that trading natural gas daily without keeping any position open at the end of the trading day is best. There is always a risk that overnight news that will make natural gas price to up or down with a gap. In any case trading is quiet in this period.
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  • #2,848
  • Jan 4, 2021 7:55am Jan 4, 2021 7:55am
Quoting heispark
VWAP zscore {image} https://forex-station.com/viewtopic....35#p1295418135 {file} TradingView version: https://www.tradingview.com/script/H...VWAP-LazyBear/ https://youtu.be/5S-Zfa-vOXs https://youtu.be/e5kmbmPfnrY https://youtu.be/95NKqULk4Gs By the way, is VWAP in Forex accurate?
Some more z-score stuff.......

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File Type: ex4 JMA z - score (mtf).ex4   42 KB | 458 downloads
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File Type: zip Jurik Z-Score Indicator Settings Template.zip   227 KB | 424 downloads
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File Type: pdf Veronica Valcu - Z-Score Indicator.pdf   137 KB | 753 downloads
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File Type: ex5 VWMA z-score.ex5   25 KB | 453 downloads
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,849
  • Jan 4, 2021 7:46pm Jan 4, 2021 7:46pm
I like Pablo's open interest analysis. He just came back from his long year end vacation. My gut feeling also tells the gap at around $3 level needs to be filled sooner or later.....

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https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natura...m-202101040623

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barchart.com
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,850
  • Jan 5, 2021 2:17pm Jan 5, 2021 2:17pm
This is odd but the price of oil and the price of natural gas don't go in tandem. Yesterday oil went down and natural gas went up. This happens often.
  • #2,851
  • Jan 5, 2021 7:17pm Jan 5, 2021 7:17pm
Quoting Hutch
This is odd but the price of oil and the price of natural gas don't go in tandem. Yesterday oil went down and natural gas went up. This happens often.
I don't trust correlation between oil and gas....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,852
  • Jan 6, 2021 9:17am Jan 6, 2021 9:17am
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,853
  • Jan 6, 2021 3:29pm Jan 6, 2021 3:29pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} I don't trust correlation between oil and gas....
Same here I trade both but sometimes they correlate and sometimes they don't. Weather is always an issue but there are many more.
  • #2,854
  • Jan 7, 2021 7:21pm Jan 7, 2021 7:21pm
Quoting heispark
I like Pablo's open interest analysis. He just came back from his long year end vacation. My gut feeling also tells the gap at around $3 level needs to be filled sooner or later..... {image} https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natura...m-202101040623 {image} barchart.com
Updated.
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Here in Seoul and north east Asian countries are bloody cold now. It's strange that U.S. is warmer than normal on the other hand.....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,855
  • Jan 7, 2021 8:28pm Jan 7, 2021 8:28pm
The Future For Natural Gas Is Far From Certain
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-...m-Certain.html
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,856
  • Jan 7, 2021 8:45pm Jan 7, 2021 8:45pm
Polar vortex conditions could form, potentially driving up US power, gas prices
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/m...wer-gas-prices
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,857
  • Jan 7, 2021 8:53pm Jan 7, 2021 8:53pm
Platts JKM hits all-time high at $20.705/MMBtu on cold snap, shipping constraints
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/m...ng-constraints

Here in Seoul is really cold now......
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,858
  • Jan 8, 2021 2:54pm Jan 8, 2021 2:54pm
Quoting heispark
Platts JKM hits all-time high at $20.705/MMBtu on cold snap, shipping constraints https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/m...ng-constraints Here in Seoul is really cold now......
In China it's worse because most houses are heated with steam pipes in the floor; that steam mostly produced from city coal fired furnaces. The smartest Chinese of them all has blocked the purchase of coal from Australia so some people really get cold these days. Obviously Xi did not fully analyse the ramifications of his decision.
  • #2,859
  • Edited 6:08pm Jan 8, 2021 5:21pm | Edited 6:08pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} In China it's worse because most houses are heated with steam pipes in the floor; that steam mostly produced from city coal fired furnaces. The smartest Chinese of them all has blocked the purchase of coal from Australia so some people really get cold these days. Obviously Xi did not fully analyse the ramifications of his decision.
If you continue to criticize Xi and his communist party, you may become missing like Jack Ma.....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,860
  • Jan 8, 2021 6:17pm Jan 8, 2021 6:17pm
Cold Weather In China Sends Coal, Gas Prices Sky-High
The coldest winter in China since 1966 has sent coal and gas prices soaring as power demand surges.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...-Sky-High.html

Nat Gas futures spread between U.S. and north Asia is also record high....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
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