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  • #2,781
  • Oct 9, 2020 7:31pm Oct 9, 2020 7:31pm
Relaxing weekend.......
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,782
  • Oct 9, 2020 7:42pm Oct 9, 2020 7:42pm
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/la-nin...z-202010090751

La Niña weather pattern to create havoc in commodity markets – ANZ

The likely development of a La Niña system could have sizeable impacts on short-term demand and supply patterns across a range of commodities. Strategists at ANZ Bank expect the major impact of La Niña to be on winter space heating and electricity demand, with harsher than average weather conditions likely to lead to a spike in energy demand, and potentially a corresponding rise in energy prices.
Key quotes
“The La Niña weather pattern is likely to benefit a stronger demand for energy commodities. The colder than average temperatures that normally occur in China are likely to see additional energy consumption. This is likely to benefit thermal coal consumption in the north of the country. We also see LNG benefiting from this weather cycle.”
“We see risks of supply disruptions rising for key commodities, such as coking coal and iron ore. The last major La Niña event resulted in two-thirds of the global seaborne coking coal market being shut down. Increased iron ore disruptions from hurricanes could also be on the cards.”
“Increased disruptions from hurricanes in the Atlantic can also disrupt the oil industry. Gulf of Mexico offshore oil production accounts for 17% of total US crude oil production. However, this can be mitigated by lower demand from refiners that are also shut.”
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,783
  • Oct 9, 2020 8:06pm Oct 9, 2020 8:06pm
General mood is bullish....

ANALYSIS: Forward market remains bullish on Henry Hub, despite cash-market volatility
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/m...ket-volatility
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,784
  • Oct 13, 2020 8:10pm Oct 13, 2020 8:10pm
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com...s-stoke-rally/

LNG goes from doghouse to podium as weather fears stoke rally

Spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices in Asia have roared back to life in recent weeks, boosted by temporary and longer-lasting factors and recovering from being one of the commodities hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic.
Spot cargoes for delivery in November to northeast Asia were assessed at $5.50 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in the week ended Oct. 9, the highest price this year and a sixth consecutive weekly gain.
That nearly triples a record low of $1.85 per mmBtu, hit in separate weeks in May when many of Asia’s economies were locked down to combat the spread of the coronavirus.
Among the factors now driving spot LNG prices higher is the expectation of stronger demand over the northern winter, as colder temperatures are forecast due to the likely emergence of a La Nina weather phenomenon.
Japan’s meteorology bureau said on Oct. 9 there is a 90% chance this winter of a La Nina, an event in which colder ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific result in colder weather in North Asia and higher rainfall across the region and down to Australia.
The forecast for a La Nina is helping drive spot LNG prices for winter, with December delivery cargoes at $5.70 per mmBtu, a 20-cent premium to those for November.
It’s worth noting that spot LNG prices are typically seasonal, reaching their peak during the northern winter and hitting lows during the low-demand shoulder seasons between winter and summer.
Last winter, spot LNG’s high was $6.80 per mmBtu, reached in mid-October – early compared to prior years – but showing that the current price may have room to rally.
There is also evidence LNG flows to Asia are rising. Refinitiv vessel-tracking and port data show 20.68 million tonnes of the super-chilled fuel was discharged in the region in September, up from 19.86 million tonnes in August and 19.44 million in September 2019.
Japan, the world’s top importer, saw September arrivals of 6.4 million tonnes, up from 6.26 million in August and above 6.35 million in September last year.
Second-biggest importer China had imports of 5.42 million tonnes in September, down from August’s 5.88 million, but well above the 4.72 million in September 2019. China’s August imports were the highest since January.
South Korea, third-largest, had imports of 2.64 million tonnes in September, up from August’s 2.09 million, but slightly below last September’s 2.73 million.
No. 4 India took 2.1 million tonnes in September, down slightly from August’s 2.25 million, but up from 1.93 million in September last year.
U.S. BOOST
Rising U.S. natural gas prices, more likely a temporary factor, are also driving spot prices higher in Asia. Henry Hub futures hit their highest intraday mark on Monday since January 2019.
The gas futures contract touched $2.955 per mmBtu in early Asian trade, more than doubling the low for the year so far at $1.432 on June 26.
Hurricane Delta, which hit the U.S. Gulf Coast over the weekend, led to natural gas wells being shut, cutting U.S. output to its lowest in 26 months. Several U.S. LNG producers also had to shut down or curtail production because of the storm.
While production will recover after the hurricane, it is possible that U.S. natural gas prices remain at higher levels as winter demand approaches.
This would give Asian spot LNG prices something of a floor since they have tended to fall when U.S. producers are able to access cheap feedstock and undercut other major exporters, such as Australia and Qatar.
There are also supportive supply-side issues benefiting spot prices and relieving some of the pressure from the overall global LNG market’s current state of structural oversupply.
Chevron is undertaking a phased shutdown of its 16.5 million tonnes-a-year Gorgon project in Western Australia state, while Royal Dutch Shell is still working to bring its troubled 3.6 million tonnes-a-year Prelude floating LNG venture back into production.
Overall, spot Asian LNG has gone from being in the doghouse of global commodities to being a star performer, with the main risk to the rally being if the anticipated colder-than-usual weather fails to materialise this winter.
Source: Reuters (Editing by Tom Hogue)
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,785
  • Oct 13, 2020 8:23pm Oct 13, 2020 8:23pm
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-...ad-Higher.html

Are LNG Prices About To Head Higher?

Weather forecasters are predicting a harsh winter for Asia, and while this would hardly be good news for anyone in the region, it happens to be great news for LNG exporters.
Producers of liquefied natural gas were hammered no less mercilessly by the coronavirus pandemic than their oil-producing peers. On top of that, the LNG market was already oversupplied—just like the oil market—when the coronavirus began its global march. As a result, prices for the so-called bridge fuel slumped to about $2 per million British thermal units, making a lot of LNG non-competitive and leading to delays in several final investment decisions in the United States.
While the FIDs are unlikely to be revisited anytime soon, spot prices are improving. The Nikkei Asian Review reported last week the price for LNG had hit $5.20 per mmBtu, which was nearly triply the price of the commodity this spring when the glut and the pandemic combined to drive it down. It is still short of the average of $6 per mmBtu, at which LNG traded a year ago, the daily noted.
This week, Reuters’ Clyde Russell reported that spot LNG cargos to be delivered to Northeastern Asia next month averaged $5.50 per mmBtu. This is the highest price for the commodity so far this year, supported by worries about supply disruptions along the U.S. Gulf Coast because of the heavy hurricane season. But the main factor is the weather. Forecasters in Japan have said there is an excellent chance of La Nina developing, which would bring colder temperatures, hence greater demand for heating. As a result, Russell notes, LNG cargos for December delivery in Northeastern Asia trade at a $0.20 premium to the cargos for November delivery.
LNG demand normally improves during the winter in the northern hemisphere, but mild winters have played a bad joke on producers before. For now, all looks set for a little bit of ordinary amid the whole pandemic havoc, with Japanese forecasters saying the likelihood of a La Nina was 90 percent.
“We expect LNG demand to increase by four billion cubic meters this winter and that’s led by growth in China, Japan and South Asia,” said analysts from Refinitiv, as quoted by Gasworld, earlier this month. “LNG supply is expected to grow by three billion cub meters, led by the US. And when we put together demand and supply forecast, we expect the LNG market to be slightly tighter than last winter by one billion cubic meters.”
This would be more much needed good news for LNG producers. In support of this demand and supply forecast, the latest import data from China is also positive, with LNG imports going up to 5.96 million tons in August, from 5.19 million tons a year ago, Argus Media reported in late September. Industrial activity in China is improving, and rising LNG imports are one of the indicators.
Imports are rising regionally, too, according to Refinitiv data cited by Reuters’ Russell in his commentary. The data showed that September deliveries of liquefied natural gas to the continent stood at 20.68 million tons. That’s up from 19.86 million tons in the previous month and 19.44 million tons a year earlier. China’s LNG intake fell in September, but Japan’s rose.
Against this background, Europe’s lackluster demand for LNG could be overlooked for the time being. As long as weather forecasts are accurate, LNG is in for further price rallies. If the forecast weather trends do not pan out, however, there’s a substantial downside potential for prices. Luckily for LNG producers, Asia is faring better overall in its fight with the coronavirus, so the risk of new lockdowns, which could affect prices negatively, is smaller than it is in Europe, where the new lockdowns are already being scheduled.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,786
  • Oct 16, 2020 5:20am Oct 16, 2020 5:20am
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Pissed-off to himself or the market? Sounds like a newbie. We know how this market behaves, right?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,787
  • Oct 16, 2020 6:18am Oct 16, 2020 6:18am
What Joe Dianapoli said about CCI (Commodity Channel Index) in his book:
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,788
  • Oct 22, 2020 5:58pm Oct 22, 2020 5:58pm
https://www.investing.com/news/commo...mports-2330419

Spurred by reform, China's niche LNG buyers to pour in investments, double imports

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - A group of niche Chinese gas firms is set to make waves in the global market with plans to invest tens of billions of dollars and double imports in the next decade as Beijing opens up its vast energy pipeline network to more competition.
The companies, mostly city gas distributors backed by local authorities, are ramping up purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as newly formed national pipeline operator PipeChina begins leasing third parties access to its distribution lines, terminals and storage facilities from this month.
The acceleration in demand in what is already the world's fastest-growing market for the super-chilled fuel is a boon for producers such Royal Dutch Shell (L:RDSa), Total (SA:TOTF) and traders like Glencore (L:GLEN) faced with oversupply and depressed prices .
Just last month, UK's Centrica (L:CNA) signed a 15-year binding deal to supply Shanghai city gas firm Shenergy Group 0.5 million tonnes per year of LNG starting in 2024.
"They're very, very interested in imports...we're talking to a lot of them already," said Kristine Leo, China country manager for Australia's Woodside Energy (AX:WPL) which signed a preliminary supply deal with private gas distributor ENN Group last year.
China could buy a record 65-67 million tonnes of LNG this year and is expected to leapfrog Japan to become the world's top buyer in 2022. Imports could surge 80% from 2019 to 2030, according to Lu Xiao, senior analyst at consultancy IHS Markit.
State-owned Guangdong Energy Group, Zhejiang Energy Group [ZJGVTA.UL], Zhenhua Oil and private firms like ENN were quick to take advantage of the market reforms and low spot prices for LNG, said Chen Zhu, managing director of Beijing-based consultancy SIA Energy.
Their imports will reach some 11 million tonnes this year, up 40% versus 2019, more than 17% of China's total purchases, said Chen.
For years such companies have worked to expand a domestic consumer base among so-called "last mile" gas users like tens of millions of households, shopping malls and factories such as ceramic makers, but they had to rely on state majors for supplies.
With greater access to distribution networks, they are now incentivized to build their own import terminals that could account for 40% of the country's LNG receiving capacity by 2030, versus 15% now, Chen said.
Frank Li, assistant to president of China Gas Holdings (HK:0384), a private piped gas distributor, said his company has been in talks with PipeChina for infrastructure access as it prepares to import LNG next year.

GUANGDONG BUYERS
In Southern China's industrial hub Guangdong, companies like Guangzhou Gas, Shenzhen Gas and Guangdong Energy hold small stakes in LNG facilities operated by China National Offshore Oil Company. They imported their first cargoes from these terminals last year.
Guangzhou Gas is set to import 13 LNG shipments this year, up from five last year, after "tough negotiations" with CNOOC (NYSE:CEO) won it access to terminals, said Vice President Liu Jingbo.
"The reform is bringing us diversified supplies, helping us cut cost," Liu told Reuters.
Some companies also plan to beef up trading expertise by opening offices overseas, such as in Singapore, executives said.
"Naturally, companies will be thinking of growing into a meaningful player globally," said a trading executive with Guangdong Energy, adding that his firm looks to Tokyo Gas (T:9351), Japan's top gas distributor and trader, as a model.
The rise of niche players will erode some market share held by state giants CNOOC, PetroChina (HK:0857) and Sinopec (HK:0386), prompting them to scale back gas infrastructure investment and focus on global trading, while extending into retail gas distribution at home, officials said.
"National majors' investment in terminals and pipelines were previously self-driven for integration. Now that these assets have been spun off, the drive to build new facilities will subside," said a PetroChina official.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,789
  • Oct 23, 2020 1:05am Oct 23, 2020 1:05am
EIA Natural Gas Weekly Update

https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/#tabs-prices-4

This is something you need to read every week if you are a Nat Gas trader......
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,790
  • Oct 23, 2020 2:27pm Oct 23, 2020 2:27pm
Quoting heispark
EIA Natural Gas Weekly Update https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/#tabs-prices-4 This is something you need to read every week if you are a Nat Gas trader......
For long-term investors Natural Gas poses a challenge while for day traders it's almost always good as you can see in the chart below.
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  • #2,791
  • Oct 23, 2020 4:37pm Oct 23, 2020 4:37pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} For long-term investors Natural Gas poses a challenge while for day traders it's almost always good as you can see in the chart below. {image}
It always amazed me that there are people who can trade profitably using renko or range bar chart..... Quite amazing skill. I will never be able to make it.
By the way, I expect I will be seriously involved in day trading again from next year. My new strategy looks promising... still in forward testing. My assumption is indicators work better with commodities rather than forex. Actually, most common indicators such as MACD, RSI, Stochastics, ...bla bla were not designed for forex. So, not a big surprise.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,792
  • Edited 7:17pm Oct 26, 2020 6:57pm | Edited 7:17pm
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...he-gulf-679875
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...rection-679734
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,793
  • Oct 29, 2020 6:27pm Oct 29, 2020 6:27pm
The latest Daily & Weekly WCU charts.... WCU amazes me again and agin....
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,794
  • Oct 30, 2020 1:24pm Oct 30, 2020 1:24pm
Quoting heispark
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...he-gulf-679875 https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...rection-679734 {image} {image}
Cooler temperature is good for rising LNG prices but it's nonsense stating that lower production and more exports will result in higher prices. This is because nobody can export without having a production that exceeds needs so lower production will result in lower exports.
  • #2,795
  • Oct 30, 2020 4:01pm Oct 30, 2020 4:01pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} Cooler temperature is good for rising LNG prices but it's nonsense stating that lower production and more exports will result in higher prices. This is because nobody can export without having a production that exceeds needs so lower production will result in lower exports.
More exports to Asia and Europe and lower production can at least help reduce the record storage currently U.S. has. U.S. has an excessive nat gas storage now and another mild winter will kill the market.....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,796
  • Oct 30, 2020 4:54pm Oct 30, 2020 4:54pm
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,797
  • Nov 3, 2020 6:07am Nov 3, 2020 6:07am
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natura...o-202011030716

Natural Gas Futures: Leg lower has further room to go
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,798
  • Nov 3, 2020 7:17am Nov 3, 2020 7:17am
Quoting heispark
Another favorate, Steyr AUG (develped in 70s but still futuristic design...) How Austrians make such innovative guns? https://youtu.be/lIoSdZVir9o Apple, Glock and Steyr, they are all Think Different.
Quoting heispark
This is what I am doing after trading. I am a big fan of Call of Duty..... but my score is almost always bottom. Perhaps, it also needs 10,000 hours of learning to master... {image}
I finally setup my dream gun Steyr AUG in my at the moment favorite game Call of Duty. Pretty cool gun although I am still the bottom at score rank..... Actually my game play skill is as bad as my day trading skill...
Call of Duty Morden Warfare is really cool game. I really like it.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,799
  • Nov 3, 2020 6:30pm Nov 3, 2020 6:30pm
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...k-bulls-680850
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,800
  • Nov 4, 2020 6:01am Nov 4, 2020 6:01am
Quoting heispark
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...k-bulls-680850 {image}
Blaming the weather is easy but the weather keeps changing from day to day so it's a weak excuse for the downward pressure on NG. Here is yesterday's chart.
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