Brexit brinkmanship: UK tells EU door still open for deal | Crypto Craft

  • Brexit brinkmanship: UK tells EU door still open for deal

    From reuters.com

    Britain said on Monday the door was still open if the European Union wanted to make some small concessions to save Brexit trade talks, but that unless the bloc budged there would be a no-deal exit in 10 weeks.Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Friday there was no point in continuing talks and it was time to prepare for a no-deal departure when Britain’s informal EU membership - known as the transition period - ends on Dec. 31. But Michael Gove, his Brexit supremo who favours a deal, has struck a more conciliatory tone, saying agreement could be reached if the bloc compromised. “It would be sensible at this ... (full story)

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DaJoWaBa
Oct 19, 2020 9:39am
Permalink
I can't bite my tongue any longer. Too many comments on Brexit are shouts of an entrenched position with, at worst, prejudiced and, at best, highly-selected data and 'evidence'. We are where we are. The past is not a representation of the future. The situation is not one of declaring who is top of the league at the end of the season as, god-willing, the future is endless AND able to be changed.
ALL that has happened right now in EU/UK negotiations is that all the easily-achievable sub-deals and compromises are sorted. They have been done quietly or 'privately'. A few sticky issues remain and no doubt it will follow Pareto Principles, even if not an explicit 80/20 sub-divide. Let's say 80% can be done quickly and with little chatter but 20% are harder and take longer, especially where there are lines in the sand. Now they will become public rather than private. IF 95% of the work has been done and agreed in 9 months, then that's really good and a remarkable achievement by both parties. It may take 3 months to resolve the remaining 5%.
BOTH the EU and UK will stand to lose in 'No Deal' and both gain with 'Deal' and it serves no purpose at all analysing very specific and selective HISTORIC samples to claim prediction of a certain future, or to seek some notion of whether some party gains more than another, based on a selective axis.
ALL that will be certain is that the future will be different from the present and that the largest gain achievable, for both parties, will be from a period of certainty there onwards. Some business sectors will gain, some will lose. In the short term, both parties will have on-costs dealing with any changes in either a deal or no-deal situation but what is one business cost is another sectors gain.
Statisticians love to quote spurious claims of future losses on the basis of smaller gains, nearly all of them base the future on an assumption that the future is mapped out as an absolute on a straight-line basis from the past and present, with any change to that perfectly mapped out future classed as a 'loss' (e.g. GDP growth of 2% rather than one of 3% is classed as a 1% loss). It's nonsense as we have only one route. We can't back up and change the past or run two parallel futures.
Too many variables that are NOT taken into account on a pure summary single-spectrum graph have a huge influence on outcomes.
Where does protection vs free-trade appear in the future (EU likes to protect, UK likes to have free-trade)? Where does future energy sources and costs appear? Where does education and investments appear? Where does entrepreneurship get valued and where does political adaptability or inflexibility fit in? They won't and can't be predicted and yet they have a huge influence on future outcomes.
I still reckon a deal will be done, whatever form it takes.
Reply
RossEdwards
Oct 19, 2020 4:10am
Permalink
Whats the point of an international agreement or treaty with a country (UK) that breaks them***?

***Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community, is a treaty between the European Union (EU), Euratom, and the United Kingdom (UK), signed on 24 January 2020 - Broken.
Reply
trumps
Oct 19, 2020 1:27pm
Permalink
Quoting DaJoWaBa
I can't bite my tongue any longer. Too many comments on Brexit are shouts of an entrenched position with, at worst, prejudiced and, at best, highly-selected data and 'evidence'. We are where we are. The past is not a representation of the future. The situation is not one of declaring who is top of the league at the end of the season as, god-willing, the future is endless AND able to be changed. ALL that has happened right now in EU/UK negotiations is that all the easily-achievable sub-deals and compromises are sorted. They have been done quietly...
Pretty much why economists have a terrible track record of predicting years into the future
Too many variables to not only consider, but indeed to calculate accurately.

Without even mentioning the as yet, unknown variables
Reply
Ibar51
Oct 19, 2020 4:32am
Permalink
Quoting NotBoris
Hidden
Totally agree with your comments
Reply
Trader#3E44
Oct 19, 2020 3:56am
Permalink
time's up ..... we should close the door once and for all and get on things. EU has had plenty of opportunity to negotiate but they will not give an inch and I'm glad to see we are not giving in to their demands.
Reply
RossEdwards
Oct 19, 2020 6:41am
Permalink
For Information:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NoDeal brexit exposure-.png Size: 110 KB

Quote: UK 'holds the cards' in EU talks - Gove
Reply
rashadali
Oct 19, 2020 4:25am
Permalink
They are making fun of EU! Accept what we offer! they say.
Reply
Bartosz77
Oct 19, 2020 7:06am
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Quoting CashRel
10 weeks. Long time. Dec 31st then. Until then Sell GBP
And after 31/12/2020 sell GBPUSD even more (target unknown... maybe 1.00?)
Reply
itsonlyme
Oct 19, 2020 7:07am
Permalink
The university of Leuven published a paper in 2019. It predicted 1.2m EU jobs looses vs 0.5m in uk. Soon find out if Brussels are interested in the EU people or "Cutting off the nose to spite the face" as upset at losing UK money tree. £10.5bn net at 1.2% and would have been £12.25bn net on the new 1.4% eu budget
https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/18962.jpeg
Reply
CashRel
Oct 19, 2020 3:57am
Permalink
10 weeks. Long time. Dec 31st then. Until then Sell GBP
Reply
itsonlyme
Oct 19, 2020 5:20am
Permalink
Just look back to 2016 and the comments from Chrystia Freeland, on the EU/ Canda trade deal. If the same wasnt happening now it would be clear the UK wasnt driving a hard enough bargain
Reply
NotBoris
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