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COT: The precious data ignored

  • #441
  • Jul 8, 2020 9:05am Jul 8, 2020 9:05am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} Looking at the weekly chart (continuous contract) this could be a perfect alignment with the technical side of trading. {image}
Exactly mate!
And right at the high band of Bollinger band weekly

A move high is always possible to get rid of weak shorts, then its good to go
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #442
  • Jul 8, 2020 1:25pm Jul 8, 2020 1:25pm
Quoting kuroro001
Daily sentiment {image} How to read it ? When its too high, above 75/80 it shows extreme buying When its too low, below 20/25 it shows extreme selling It doesn't mean its time to sell or buy, but its a warning
Dear Kuroro,

Was wondering how to interpret this data earlier and now its bit clearer. Does this data need to read along with the COT data? And this daily sentiments - is there any website this info is published daily? Thx for your insight, im learning about this COT.
  • #443
  • Jul 8, 2020 2:04pm Jul 8, 2020 2:04pm
Quoting subashr
{quote} Dear Kuroro, Was wondering how to interpret this data earlier and now its bit clearer. Does this data need to read along with the COT data? And this daily sentiments - is there any website this info is published daily? Thx for your insight, im learning about this COT.
Daily sentiment is totally different, its a private calculation based on Jake Bernstein.
Check his site http://www.trade-futures.com/ but its a paying service

Its not COT related at all, but you can use it as a complement mate
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #444
  • Jul 9, 2020 5:33am Jul 9, 2020 5:33am
Daily sentiment as of thurday evening

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dsi.JPG Size: 34 KB


Above 80/85, below 15/20 is the warning zone. Its not a selling/buying until you have confirmation with other sentiment/technical/fundamental
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #445
  • Jul 9, 2020 12:00pm Jul 9, 2020 12:00pm
This is interesting stuff.
Please where does these charts come from as I have checked the cft website you posted above and didn't see charts.

Can this help a struggling trader?
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #446
  • Jul 9, 2020 3:15pm Jul 9, 2020 3:15pm
Quoting skyf
This is interesting stuff. Please where does these charts come from as I have checked the cft website you posted above and didn't see charts. Can this help a struggling trader?
For your 2 questions :

1 / I have extracted the datas from the cftc.gov website and made my own charts from excel. If you are too lazy to make your own chart you can find lots of websites about it (barcharts.com / cotunchained.com or google COT charts)

2/ Its hard to answer your second question. For my own case, it helped me a lot to understand what the market participants are doing, and how big they are loaded in longs or shorts.
Have a look at my journal, or any other here in FF, check all charts and look if they serve you.

Don't forget they are weekly chart, it won't be useful for your day trading. Think about mid/long term here.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #447
  • Jul 10, 2020 5:53am Jul 10, 2020 5:53am
Cocoa longs in the process

*Technicals*

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cocoa.PNG Size: 20 KB


*Sentiment*

Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #448
  • Edited 11:49am Jul 10, 2020 10:10am | Edited 11:49am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} For your 2 questions : 1 / I have extracted the datas from the cftc.gov website and made my own charts from excel. If you are too lazy to make your own chart you can find lots of websites about it (barcharts.com / cotunchained.com or google COT charts) 2/ Its hard to answer your second question. For my own case, it helped me a lot to understand what the market participants are doing, and how big they are loaded in longs or shorts. Have a look at my journal, or any other here in FF, check all charts and look if they serve you. Don't forget...
Thanks a lot for this apt reply and links.

I have checked out the links.The barcharts had me wondering what to do there and the charts in the other link don't look like yours in terms of long/short virtualization. I understand that can be because you make your own charts as you pointed out.

I reckon the best approach is to learn how to make the charts with excel so that what I see is the same as what you have and maybe we can do more.
Hopefully with chart like yours one can benefit as you do.

I appreciate once more.
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #449
  • Jul 11, 2020 3:22am Jul 11, 2020 3:22am
Quoting skyf
{quote} Thanks a lot for this apt reply and links. I have checked out the links.The barcharts had me wondering what to do there and the charts in the other link don't look like yours in terms of long/short virtualization. I understand that can be because you make your own charts as you pointed out. I reckon the best approach is to learn how to make the charts with excel so that what I see is the same as what you have and maybe we can do more. Hopefully with chart like yours one can benefit as you do. I appreciate once more.
Barcharts has everything, but its simple (non-commercial/commercials & dealers/AM/MM) without seeing longs & shorts apart.
COTunchained is better, its the same as my charts but like you said the visual is different because i'm doing chart+COT on the same chart, and i use histogram to see it better

I advise you to do it on excel, or any other support. So you can tweak the datas, make calculations, cross datas with each others. Plenty of useful informations
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #450
  • Jul 14, 2020 6:25am Jul 14, 2020 6:25am
Hey kuroro001

Really like ur thread and ur graphics. I'm also planning to do the COT-Data in excel, how/where do you get the price from the futures? Do you type them in every week manually or do you use a source to download them (too bad the data is not included in the COT).
  • #451
  • Jul 16, 2020 2:45pm Jul 16, 2020 2:45pm
Quoting 00ps
Hey kuroro001 Really like ur thread and ur graphics. I'm also planning to do the COT-Data in excel, how/where do you get the price from the futures? Do you type them in every week manually or do you use a source to download them (too bad the data is not included in the COT).
Thanks

Yes it's all manual, copy/paste the datas into excel
Or you could do some excel macros to do it automatically. I'm just too lazy to code something
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #452
  • Edited 7:17am Jul 22, 2020 6:36am | Edited 7:17am
Thanks @kuroro001 for your reply, i started with a first draft of my Excel-COT-Tool but not sure if i will stick to the Legacy or Disaggregated report. In ZC i tried to illustrate both ways (left legacy, right dissagregated), the numbers of the commercials is way diffrent without the swap dealers in it but the commercial-index for 26 weeks (larry williams) is more or less the same. Intresting in the dissagregated illustration is that since 2015 the commercials net position in ZC only in june 2020 was positiv (not even in may/june 2019 before the big spike).

I still have to figure out which format helps me more and how to biuld a solid trading strategy with these data! :-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ZC.jpg Size: 574 KB
  • #453
  • Jul 22, 2020 1:46pm Jul 22, 2020 1:46pm
Quoting 00ps
Thanks @kuroro001 for your reply, i started with a first draft of my Excel-COT-Tool but not sure if i will stick to the Legacy or Disaggregated report. In ZC i tried to illustrate both ways (left legacy, right dissagregated), the numbers of the commercials is way diffrent without the swap dealers in it but the commercial-index for 26 weeks (larry williams) is more or less the same. Intresting in the dissagregated illustration is that since 2015 the commercials net position in ZC only in june 2020 was positiv (not even in may/june 2019 before the...
You got some nice charts there, better than mine

Regarding the datas, i think all of them are useful, its a whole. Have a look at everything and make your decision. But swap dealers are very important
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #454
  • Jul 22, 2020 9:21pm Jul 22, 2020 9:21pm
I have some examples of how I use the data to alert me to a potential set up and take profit targets.
I have a range of templates set up showing different correlations of COT Data that make sense to me and my system. Based on Historical COT data I identify a Set up and then use my Technical analysis tools for timing an entry. I can also use the COT data as potential take profit targets based on where I anticipate the COT data to get to based on what has happened before.
Pic #1 & 2 Corn .
Pic #3 & 4 Copper.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CORNDaily-5.png Size: 76 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CORNDaily-6.0..png Size: 71 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: InkedCOPPERDaily_LI.jpg Size: 1.9 MB
Click to Enlarge Name: COPPERDaily_3.png Size: 66 KB
  • #455
  • Jul 22, 2020 9:45pm Jul 22, 2020 9:45pm
Now Looking into the Crystal Ball ?
Copper I am thinking may consolidate at the top while profits are taken for a while , then I'd like to see some return to the mean threshold. But COT data is stretched at a near extreme. Corn looks like market structure has broken to the upside and we have a nice Low risk Buying opportunity but it may be slow going for a while.
Pic #1 & 2 Corn.
Pic #1, 2, & 3 Copper.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CORNDaily.png Size: 87 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CORNDaily2.png Size: 89 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: COPPERDaily_10.png Size: 63 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: COPPERDaily_15.png Size: 61 KB
  • #456
  • Jul 23, 2020 12:50am Jul 23, 2020 12:50am
Quoting AussieBob
Now Looking into the Crystal Ball ? Copper I am thinking may consolidate at the top while profits are taken for a while , then I'd like to see some return to the mean threshold. But COT data is stretched at a near extreme. Corn looks like market structure has broken to the upside and we have a nice Low risk Buying opportunity but it may be slow going for a while. Pic #1 & 2 Corn. Pic #1, 2, & 3 Copper. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
Excellent posts as always AussieBob!!

Regarding Copper i totally agree, a correction may happen here and now. And copper is well correlated to the dollar and equities, so it may trigger something accross the board

Regarding Corn, i was very long too, now i'm feeling like it could head back down alongside wheat/soy/copper, before surging up like there is no tomorrow

But keep posting, i like your charts and analysis
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #457
  • Jul 23, 2020 2:16am Jul 23, 2020 2:16am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Excellent posts as always AussieBob!! Regarding Copper i totally agree, a correction may happen here and now. And copper is well correlated to the dollar and equities, so it may trigger something accross the board Regarding Corn, i was very long too, now i'm feeling like it could head back down alongside wheat/soy/copper, before surging up like there is no tomorrow But keep posting, i like your charts and analysis
RE Corn , I hear ya. Price of course could continue lower and take out the lows. My interpretation of a "Low Risk Buy" is when I enter a trade with a tight collar on the Stop. If I am wrong , I know about it pretty quick and will wait for the price action to show me something at a lower price. But if I get the expansion I am after, then I have a good R:R on the trade. I gotta risk it if I want the Biscuit. Lol. But COT data and other technical's do suggest we are Oversold down here.
  • #458
  • Jul 23, 2020 8:14am Jul 23, 2020 8:14am
Quoting AussieBob
Now Looking into the Crystal Ball ? Copper I am thinking may consolidate at the top while profits are taken for a while , then I'd like to see some return to the mean threshold. But COT data is stretched at a near extreme. Corn looks like market structure has broken to the upside and we have a nice Low risk Buying opportunity but it may be slow going for a while. Pic #1 & 2 Corn. Pic #1, 2, & 3 Copper. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
nice!
  • #459
  • Jul 24, 2020 1:22am Jul 24, 2020 1:22am
Thank you for your Inputs and Charts, very interesting! :-)
  • #460
  • Jul 25, 2020 8:34am Jul 25, 2020 8:34am
Commodities on the move

Here are the Triple C : Cocoa, Copper, Cotton


Below are the commodities that have the best moving potential

Attached Image
Buying Cocoa for retrace/reversal

Attached Image
Selling Copper for retrace/reversal
Attached Image
Selling Cotton for retrace/reversal (even though it already moved a bit down)
COT: The precious data ignored
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