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COT: The precious data ignored

  • #361
  • Jun 6, 2020 5:45am Jun 6, 2020 5:45am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} This is a very important post. I hope everyone can see it It' something that was right 100% from March Bottom. Big players bull - and not out of position or decreasing even if we got so high above 3100 - same thing buy the dips if any Hedgefunds very low exposed on this rally - still net short or out of the market. they will buy after 3400 ? Small Retail adding to short. how crazy is this. Nasdaq all time high. and people are still throwing 1929 charts on Twtr. Also Since data coming better than expected, earnings in q2 will probably be...
Thanks a lot for your support, i really appreciate mate !!

You think they can start buying heavy again above 3400? it would sound crazy, and scary

Haha have you seen it too? 1981 & 1929 bearish charts all over the place, and been there since S&P is around 2300/2400
At some point, Retail could be right, they are shorting a lot lately, that's why its possible to see some retrace, but big players still rule the game

And have you been this post on twitter? We really are near a breakdown
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: spy6.PNG Size: 221 KB
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #362
  • Jun 6, 2020 6:39am Jun 6, 2020 6:39am
Quoting kuroro001
I got 2 questions for anyone who feels like responding to it 1 - What's the most accurate ? ICE crude oil or NYMEX crude oil when you trade using COT report 2 - Lets say Commodities such as Coffee, Sugar, Soybean (and others) are going down big time, is it compatible with Dollar losing a lot of its value? From what i can see those commodities can head down big time, and from what i read people are seeing a big fall in the dollar. Big trouble for the producers ahead ? Impossible ? or Dollar will have to rise to prevent producers from going broke...
On question 2: I see dollar strength coming in. IMO we're more aligned to what happened in Japan 90, with the Nikkei. A hope rally followed the liquidation phase, which is what we have been in (fuelled by the FED). The next phase is insolvency.
Businesses reopen & are hit with -20% (or greater) fall in demand. Quick route to bankruptcy.
That fuels $$$ strength, as businesses scramble for $/cash, & find the money supply tightening (Fed is slowing down on its balance sheet expansion).
Commodity prices can head down big time!
  • #363
  • Jun 6, 2020 6:55am Jun 6, 2020 6:55am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Thanks a lot for your support, i really appreciate mate !! You think they can start buying heavy again above 3400? it would sound crazy, and scary Haha have you seen it too? 1981 & 1929 bearish charts all over the place, and been there since S&P is around 2300/2400 At some point, Retail could be right, they are shorting a lot lately, that's why its possible to see some retrace, but big players still rule the game And have you been this post on twitter? We really are near a breakdown {image}
Imho we had the biggest support in 10-20 years from gov
I got all loans delayed at least 9m. support for employees. support on taxes.
Also we have very low interest to borrow money and a promise to keep them low for a considerable time.

So as a business owner what can i do. close ?no. invest more, maybe, but i sure want to take advantage of the support
so let's say we have 1 year of big support. this goes into earnings . maybe sales will not be that great in the next few months. but after that. ?
So i would not be surprised to see new market highs. also companies in US will report better than expected.

negative scenario and a really bad one is to have a jump in corona cases that will be very hard to sustain. ...
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #364
  • Jun 6, 2020 6:56am Jun 6, 2020 6:56am
Quoting GingerJohn
{quote} On question 2: I see dollar strength coming in. IMO we're more aligned to what happened in Japan 90, with the Nikkei. A hope rally followed the liquidation phase, which is what we have been in (fuelled by the FED). The next phase is insolvency. Businesses reopen & are hit with -20% (or greater) fall in demand. Quick route to bankruptcy. That fuels $$$ strength, as businesses scramble for $/cash, & find the money supply tightening (Fed is slowing down on its balance sheet expansion). Commodity prices can head down big time!
Thanks for your answer, its highly possible indeed.
FED and central banks are disrupting the markets, they are totally disconnected from the real world

With Commodities going down, producers will go broke soon as its alread very cheap right now, we may go to an era of bad times (i hope it won't happen though)

I'm thinking of buying soon load of VIX contracts, but i'd need it to go a bit lower to start the loading process
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #365
  • Jun 6, 2020 7:00am Jun 6, 2020 7:00am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} Imho we had the biggest support in 10-20 years from gov I got all loans delayed at least 9m. support for employees. support on taxes. Also we have very low interest to borrow money and a promise to keep them low for a considerable time. So as a business owner what can i do. close ?no. invest more, maybe, but i sure want to take advantage of the support so let's say we have 1 year of big support. this goes into earnings . maybe sales will not be that great in the next few months. but after that. ? So i would not be surprised to see new market...
Cheap money, and support for businesses is a plus for sure, but can it last more? I'm scared some shits may hit the fan, it doesn't look very sustainable

But indeed no suprises to see stocks to new highs, i for sure won't be buying here though

As for the coronavirus, if we ever have new cases, the world will be doomed for some time, and its not what we want/need
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #366
  • Jun 6, 2020 7:04am Jun 6, 2020 7:04am
Investment idea : Natural Gas / Crude oil

One simple chart over a period of 4 years.
The chart below represent the spread between the price of natural gas vs the price of crude oil wti
The histogram respresent the producers/money managers for the gas futures versus the producers/money managers for the crude oil wti futures

Attached Image


What does the chart suggests ? Buy natural, sell crude oil if we look at the history
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #367
  • Jun 6, 2020 7:55am Jun 6, 2020 7:55am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Cheap money, and support for businesses is a plus for sure, but can it last more? I'm scared some shits may hit the fan, it doesn't look very sustainable But indeed no suprises to see stocks to new highs, i for sure won't be buying here though As for the coronavirus, if we ever have new cases, the world will be doomed for some time, and its not what we want/need
they will probably have to increase taxes next year or maybe after election so maybe just moving problems into next year.
Trump got his Market to all time high again.

maybe some rough years from next year.
Last time Powell said it's really not a problem into expanding balance sheet and there is no limit to what they can do.

and into raising taxes we all know what happens when that thing starts. i guess it's still the same thing as we've seen in the last 10 years
rich become richer, poor poorer and middle classes smaller
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #368
  • Jun 6, 2020 8:32am Jun 6, 2020 8:32am
Not seeing risk in the S&P at the moment.
Yields and dollar on the floor
Oil has pulled back - now $40 ish
Copper- doing well
Plus those employment figures on Friday were something else.
Main drivers: Vaccines/infection rates/Fed/Trump and growth
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #369
  • Jun 6, 2020 8:41am Jun 6, 2020 8:41am
Quoting kuroro001
Investment idea : Natural Gas / Crude oil One simple chart over a period of 4 years. The chart below represent the spread between the price of natural gas vs the price of crude oil wti The histogram respresent the producers/money managers for the gas futures versus the producers/money managers for the crude oil wti futures {image} What does the chart suggests ? Buy natural, sell crude oil if we look at the history
Remember this:

https://www.tampabay.com/business/ho...lion-20190206/
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #370
  • Jun 6, 2020 8:43am Jun 6, 2020 8:43am
Quoting kuroro001
Grain investing idea i'm pointing out ideas here, just ideas. {image} {image} These 2 charts above are showing Wheat producers are very short, while corn producers are retreating. But i'm always skpetical whenever the don't move in sync, even though its normal {image} Here is the spread Wheat/Corn over the past 20 years. A return to the mean strategy ? Its 0,4 above its 200MA, highest since 2014 Short wheat, long corn ?
Quoting kuroro001
Wheat/corn trade I just ignitiated a wheat/corn trade deal. Selling july wheat / Buying july corn. Lets see how it goes. {image}
Attached Image

Update of the investing idea short wheat/long corn


Quoting kuroro001
Coffee/sugar investment idea {image} Coffee/sugar idea is to short the coffee and buy the sugar. Spread is very high relative to its 4 years price, and COT datas are favoring to buy sugar relative to coffee
Attached Image

Update of the investing idea short coffee/long sugar

Both are going good, wheat/corn is slow but on the right path, while coffee/sugar is showing its time to get out
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #371
  • Jun 6, 2020 8:53am Jun 6, 2020 8:53am
Quoting SFundamental
{quote} Remember this: https://www.tampabay.com/business/ho...lion-20190206/
Am i misreading the article ?

Check the below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 35 KB

From the article, its being said he advised to short Gas and buy Oil

And look what happaned
Attached Image


It was a good call no ?

Or am i misreading and it was a mid november call from another year ?
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #372
  • Jun 6, 2020 8:54am Jun 6, 2020 8:54am
Quoting SFundamental
Not seeing risk in the S&P at the moment. Yields and dollar on the floor Oil has pulled back - now $40 ish Copper- doing well Plus those employment figures on Friday were something else. Main drivers: Vaccines/infection rates/Fed/Trump and growth
So far everything look good indeed

May i ask your view? what you see on the s&p , dollar and oil ?

Cheers
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #373
  • Jun 6, 2020 9:23am Jun 6, 2020 9:23am
Coffee shorts retreating

Attached Image

Producers are retreating their massive short positions. If we ever have more downside they'll cool off more their short bet.
Blue circle is where the price is, its showing producers are reducing their short hedges

Attached Image

Money managers just went short, near the bottom...is it the right thing?

Attached Image

Check out the short side of the money managers, they are increasing their bets, they are not that strong, but if they start increasing their short at the bottom, you know something is wrong

Attached Image

Weekly system is telling price is very much overextended to the downside, bounce/reversal is due

One piece of advise :
Overall the coffee market is in a bear market for the past 10 years, but we always have huge (20 to 40% more or less) bounces.
You have to know producers have breakeven around 140 dollars (price is currently 100 dollars). Whenevet it gets below 100 dollars, its a huge problem, producers from Colombia, and Brazil can't survive out of it, hence cutting production (because there is an overproduction in the coffee market) is what happens
Watch out for prices going below 100 dollars, check the COT report to see what market participants are doing, and jump on coffee ETF (don't overleverage this market as its a very volatile commodity)
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #374
  • Jun 6, 2020 11:59am Jun 6, 2020 11:59am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Am i misreading the article ? Check the below {image} From the article, its being said he advised to short Gas and buy Oil And look what happaned {image} It was a good call no ? Or am i misreading and it was a mid november call from another year ?
the article seems almost misleading
In any event from what I understand he lost millions on an oil/ng trade.
And put up an an apology on you tube
It was on Bloomberg. Here is some more info on it and a link on the WTI/NG contracts at that time
https://lawgsp.com/optionsellers-com...-trading-scam/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/1uCd0M9i/

-
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #375
  • Jun 6, 2020 12:21pm Jun 6, 2020 12:21pm
Quoting SFundamental
{quote} the article seems almost misleading In any event from what I understand he lost millions on an oil/ng trade. And put up an an apology on you tube It was on Bloomberg. Here is some more info on it and a link on the WTI/NG contracts at that time https://lawgsp.com/optionsellers-com...-trading-scam/ https://www.tradingview.com/x/1uCd0M9i/ -
The lawgsp link report only his long oil, and of course if he sold naked puts with leverage its over for him

But shorting gas / buying oil would have made him rich
From mid november until the beginning of 2019, oil lost roughly 18% (lets say buy 55 dollars and sell back 40 dollars), while gas lost roughly 33% (lets say short 4,5 dollars and buy back at 3 dollars)
Net +15% at the beginning of 2019...so imagine holding until feb/march, its jackpot

I don't know what happened really, i'll tell the dude to check COT report next time
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #376
  • Jun 6, 2020 1:01pm Jun 6, 2020 1:01pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} So far everything look good indeed May i ask your view? what you see on the s&p , dollar and oil ? Cheers
Don't really trade the S&P anymore. But here goes
S&P seems ok - but if we get risk- prices will come off
Not sure where the gamma levels
I rate McElliott
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nomur...iDtIdghuaKpxx0
He was bullish on this recent move if I recall

Dollar seems to be fairy priced based on various asset values for me- although perhaps starting to get a bit stretched
I know that Goldmans were bearish on the dollar last week- and they are followed

Oil has so many drivers - and I don't trade it unless there is a fundamental reason - war/opec/pipeline issue/
Obviously a cheap dollar helps.

I trade opportunties really - although will scalp when required
Over the last two weeks we have had some really good trades
So rather than approaching things from a valuation perspective - I look at it from what portfolio managers have to do at certain times:
Book balance, Brexit negotations, Trumps speech on China etc....
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #377
  • Jun 6, 2020 10:20pm Jun 6, 2020 10:20pm
[quote=kuroro001;12987746]{quote} The lawgsp link report only his long oil, and of course if he sold naked puts with leverage its over for him But shorting gas / buying oil would have made him rich From mid november until the beginning of 2019, oil lost roughly 18% (lets say buy 55 dollars and sell back 40 dollars), while gas lost roughly 33% (lets say short 4,5 dollars and buy back at 3 dollars) Net +15% at the beginning of 2019...so imagine holding until feb/march, its jackpot I don't know what happened really, i'll tell the dude to check COT report next time
  • #378
  • Jun 6, 2020 10:23pm Jun 6, 2020 10:23pm
[quote=kuroro001;12987746]{quote} The lawgsp link report only his long oil, and of course if he sold naked puts with leverage its over for him But shorting gas / buying oil would have made him rich From mid november until the beginning of 2019, oil lost roughly 18% (lets say buy 55 dollars and sell back 40 dollars), while gas lost roughly 33% (lets say short 4,5 dollars and buy back at 3 dollars) Net +15% at the beginning of 2019...so imagine holding until feb/march, its jackpot I don't know what happened really, i'll tell the dude to check COT report next time
Year was 2009
  • #379
  • Jun 6, 2020 11:34pm Jun 6, 2020 11:34pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Gentlemen always play by the rules, if they can't, they change them.
  • #380
  • Jun 7, 2020 1:49am Jun 7, 2020 1:49am
Quoting q_import
Year was 2009
How weird to make an article about someone losing money...10 years later
COT: The precious data ignored
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