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COT: The precious data ignored

  • #261
  • Apr 11, 2020 8:10am Apr 11, 2020 8:10am
CHF correction?

These 3 charts speak for themselves.
To sum them up check below

Attached Image

Dealers are net shorts and loaded them on top. Not good for longs

Attached Image

Money managers are very net longs on top of this CHF move. It still can rise more, but its very limited

Attached Image

Assets managers are still net long on top as well. Its not a good sign for longs

Overall i'll be looking at shorting CHF again
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #262
  • Apr 11, 2020 8:21am Apr 11, 2020 8:21am
JPY to fall?

Attached Image

Assets managers are very long on top of this move. For sure i would NOT follow them, and its time for them to give away to bag full of dirts to someone else.

Attached Image

Short side of the money managers are still not loaded, they don't believe in the short side? Time to be a contrarian

I'll just short JPY for the time being
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #263
  • Apr 11, 2020 10:59am Apr 11, 2020 10:59am
Quoting kuroro001
CHF correction? These 3 charts speak for themselves. To sum them up check below {image} Dealers are net shorts and loaded them on top. Not good for longs {image} Money managers are very net longs on top of this CHF move. It still can rise more, but its very limited {image} Assets managers are still net long on top as well. Its not a good sign for longs Overall i'll be looking at shorting CHF again
Sorry for language barrier... I want to be clear... do you mean you look to long UsdChf??
  • #264
  • Apr 11, 2020 11:22am Apr 11, 2020 11:22am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Sorry for language barrier... I want to be clear... do you mean you look to long UsdChf??
That's exactly what i mean yes. But remember its a weekly trade, and can last like for weeks.

I'll do some EUR & CHF analysis later, showing the correlation between EUR & CHF is only reflected in the price, and NOT in the positionning.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #265
  • Apr 11, 2020 11:54am Apr 11, 2020 11:54am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} That's exactly what i mean yes. But remember its a weekly trade, and can last like for weeks. I'll do some EUR & CHF analysis later, showing the correlation between EUR & CHF is only reflected in the price, and NOT in the positionning.
Thanks.. I see UsdChf temp correction to move up first then more downside again later...I have closed all my UsdChf shorts last Friday...glad to see confirmation by your info
  • #266
  • Apr 11, 2020 2:25pm Apr 11, 2020 2:25pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Thanks.. I see UsdChf temp correction to move up first then more downside again later...I have closed all my UsdChf shorts last Friday...glad to see confirmation by your info
You are welcome, but it doesn't mean i will be right 100%

Maybe i'm totally wrong.

i'm just posting here what i can read on the COT report. Then i take my trade, and use strict money managment. I know when to enter and when to exit
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #267
  • Apr 11, 2020 6:34pm Apr 11, 2020 6:34pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} That's exactly what i mean yes. But remember its a weekly trade, and can last like for weeks. I'll do some EUR & CHF analysis later, showing the correlation between EUR & CHF is only reflected in the price, and NOT in the positionning.
So you think USDCHF, USDJPY, and EURUSD are all going up? It will be unusual since USDCHF and EURUSD are negatively correlated. What happens to DXY then?
BTW, since the last few weeks that I have been following your thread, you have been very accurate in your predictions. Well done!
Hope I didn’t jinx it.

Also, have you looked at the AUDUSD recently? I just wanna know what you think about it.
  • #268
  • Apr 12, 2020 3:26am Apr 12, 2020 3:26am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} So you think USDCHF, USDJPY, and EURUSD are all going up? It will be unusual since USDCHF and EURUSD are negatively correlated. What happens to DXY then? BTW, since the last few weeks that I have been following your thread, you have been very accurate in your predictions. Well done! Hope I didn’t jinx it. Also, have you looked at the AUDUSD recently? I just wanna know what you think about it.
Well if you look at the low tf chart over the past hours, yes its correlated. But remember COT is based on long term.

And for example, the correlation between EUR and JPY over the past 4 years on a weekly basis is like -0,17, for EUR and CHF its like 0,57
On the longer run, for these currencies, the correlation is meaningless and i wouldn't have a strategy based on that.

Thanks for the cheer up, but lately its getting harder as the old correlation are not working anymore.

EUR is telling us dealers are VERY short, CHF is telling us dealers are short as well so its all good so far.

The only thing i don't like is seeing EUR very short near a bottom. Last time EUR dealers had such an extreme bias (they were VERY long top) was in 2014 before the huge fall.

I'm trying to analyse COT and seeing if there is a special edge to this exteme bias

Regarding your last question about AUD, i find AUD positionning a bit useless. But if you cross the datas with Copper producers, its relevant, and you would have been AUD since the past 4 years
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #269
  • Apr 12, 2020 3:31am Apr 12, 2020 3:31am
Quoting kuroro001
Are we done with Bitcoin ? {image} You don't need to be a genius to trade Bitcoins, nor to analyse it like crazy. Short side of the Assets managers is doing the job for you They are clearing their short bets, and as good traders they are on the wrong side of the market. If there is a moment NOT to buy bitcoin, its right now. I like to buy assets cheap, and i'll buy some ETF bitcoin/ethereum once Assets managers go super short
this is acting very strange. there are few assets i have seen so pumped up over internet like bitcoin. and still going lower today and this week was weak with all the risk on trades over so many assets this thing is really under-performing
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #270
  • Apr 12, 2020 4:28am Apr 12, 2020 4:28am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} this is acting very strange. there are few assets i have seen so pumped up over internet like bitcoin. and still going lower today and this week was weak with all the risk on trades over so many assets this thing is really under-performing
Yes true, bitcoin is not what we think it is i guess.

Or it could be the fact that Bitcoin is being dumped to buy some equities.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #271
  • Apr 12, 2020 5:55am Apr 12, 2020 5:55am
Is it me or ....

Corn producers is driving EUR prices ?

Food for thought for your quarantine

Attached Image

Corn producers chart with euro price, 4 years from 2012 to 2015

Attached Image

This current chart is from 2016 until today (april 2020)

To make things clear, everything Corn producers are very shorts, euro is diving (red rectangles). When they cool off their shorts, euro retreats back up (blue circles)

Am i seeing things i shouldn't see? if i'm right, EURO is on a stage to rise until Corn producers go more shorts.

Its fun to play with datas, time will tell
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #272
  • Apr 12, 2020 6:37am Apr 12, 2020 6:37am
Quoting kuroro001
Is it me or .... Corn producers is driving EUR prices ? Food for thought for your quarantine {image} Corn producers chart with euro price, 4 years from 2012 to 2015 {image} This current chart is from 2016 until today (april 2020) To make things clear, everything Corn producers are very shorts, euro is diving (red rectangles). When they cool off their shorts, euro retreats back up (blue circles) Am i seeing things i shouldn't see? if i'm right, EURO is on a stage to rise until Corn producers go more shorts. Its fun to play with datas, time will tell...
interesting. will look into it
from listening to conference call this week on companies that are reporting i understand that USA will have a record on planting as acres.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #273
  • Apr 12, 2020 7:24am Apr 12, 2020 7:24am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} interesting. will look into it from listening to conference call this week on companies that are reporting i understand that USA will have a record on planting as acres.
So more downside for grains ?

Maybe i'll short wheat and buy corn.

I have to see how's the spread there. Usually there is something good to do about it
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #274
  • Apr 12, 2020 7:48am Apr 12, 2020 7:48am
Grain investing idea

i'm pointing out ideas here, just ideas.

Attached Image

Attached Image

These 2 charts above are showing Wheat producers are very short, while corn producers are retreating. But i'm always skpetical whenever the don't move in sync, even though its normal

Attached Image

Here is the spread Wheat/Corn over the past 20 years. A return to the mean strategy ? Its 0,4 above its 200MA, highest since 2014

Short wheat, long corn ?
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #275
  • Apr 12, 2020 8:20am Apr 12, 2020 8:20am
EUR or CHF pick your poison

I'll point out the similarity and difference between EUR and CHF.
I'll compare 2 periods. From 2012 to 2015 & 2016 to 2020 (april)

Attached Image

This current chart represent EUR and CHF with the Dealers from 2012 until 2015.
What we can see ? the similiaries and differences between the 2 even they are supposed to be highly correlated ?

During that period, it was stable, the correlation of their prices was 0,75%, the correlation of the dealers ? Exactly the same.
I have spotted some circles. Red and blues circles represent the similarities. Red for selling increasing, blue for buying increasing from the dealers side.

What about the green ? You can see the differences, and CHF traders are way better at spotting the right trades than the EUR traders during that period (at least to me!)

Now lets have a look at the 2016-2020 period

Attached Image

I have spotted the same similarities and differences as above. But first, correlation changed, correlation of the prices is now 0,57 while the correlation of the dealers is now 0,33. Its getting lower

Lets have a look at the differences :
1 /The first green circle, CHF spotted nicely the rise.
2/ The second green cirlce, EUR spotted the big fall, even though CHF cleared most of its long side.
3/ CHF dealers have been long only, while EUR dealers have short only (Now you understand why EURCHF kept falling)

What about today ?
Both EUR and CHF are short.
EUR dealers are extremely short, its a record, they have never been that short.
CHF dealers are very short as well compared to the last 5 years.

Thing to watch out is that much EUR shorts happen at the bottom. Either we'll have a complete breakdown of the EUR, or a big and fat rise when dealers clear their shorts.
Move is coming....
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #276
  • Apr 12, 2020 9:37am Apr 12, 2020 9:37am
Dollar long watch out?

Attached Image

Something that will make dollar bears happy....
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #277
  • Apr 12, 2020 9:47am Apr 12, 2020 9:47am
Quoting kuroro001
Dollar long watch out? {image} Something that will make dollar bears happy....

USD is hitting everyone
just reading into this earning report.

" And, we are trying to take into account FX, and again, I mentioned that we talked to the senior leadership team every other day and the FX swings in developing country currencies are nuts. So, in Latin America you're seeing 30%, 40% plus negative impacts. I would remind folks that that's about $300 million of revenues in total."

exp referring to Brasil but i guess. everywhere.

demand is still strong for USD but some progress on Libor OIS
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: libor.jpg Size: 252 KB
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #278
  • Apr 12, 2020 10:40am Apr 12, 2020 10:40am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} USD is hitting everyone just reading into this earning report. " And, we are trying to take into account FX, and again, I mentioned that we talked to the senior leadership team every other day and the FX swings in developing country currencies are nuts. So, in Latin America you're seeing 30%, 40% plus negative impacts. I would remind folks that that's about $300 million of revenues in total." exp referring to Brasil but i guess. everywhere. demand is still strong for USD but some progress on Libor OIS {image}
I guess it is yes, but just a matter of time before it gets hit hard! FED has printed enough cash to devaluate it 15/20% easy.

And when i look at the cheap commodities, or some cheap currencies, it tells me it soon is the time for a big dump of the dollar

It will help commodities go up, equities go up, EM felling better.

Don't know what will be the trigger
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #279
  • Apr 12, 2020 2:30pm Apr 12, 2020 2:30pm
Mexican peso buyers at work

Attached Image

Dealers have been accumulating longs for the past weeks.
It add strength to the mexican peso, and weakness to the dollar once again
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #280
  • Apr 15, 2020 11:10am Apr 15, 2020 11:10am
Is it me again ....

or Cocoa traders are impacting the EURO ?

Attached Image

EDIT : its EURO price on the chart (and not COCOA price)

Another chart that explains everything based on the long side of the producers with the long side of the money managers.

You can see whenever long producers overcome the long money managers, euro is rising. Other way works too.

So from this chart, and the corn chart, what can we deduce? It seems soft/grain traders have a huge impact on the move of the euro.

It seems logical as commodities are priced in dollar. A devaluation of the dollar brings the price of the commodities up.

So what's next? Dollar down for the next few weeks
COT: The precious data ignored
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