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Global Macro Strategy

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 14, 2020 1:28pm Mar 14, 2020 1:28pm
How many here have taken interest in such trading strategies ad this of which I learned are based on , dislocation, timing, size and like from what I have learned on insight. Or, in lamens terms trading the news or " unscheduled" or "scheduled" events!
  • #2
  • Mar 14, 2020 3:28pm Mar 14, 2020 3:28pm
The study of economics, current events and history. This is big banking.
Count Of Antwerp
  • #3
  • Mar 14, 2020 3:50pm Mar 14, 2020 3:50pm
Quoting countaccrue
The study of economics, current events and history. This is big banking.
That's the bulk of what I am talking about! I found out the big players use this strategy and wanted to see if some retail traders wanted to come up with sone strategies!
  • #4
  • Mar 14, 2020 9:01pm Mar 14, 2020 9:01pm
Quoting Innovator757
{quote} That's the bulk of what I am talking about! I found out the big players use this strategy and wanted to see if some retail traders wanted to come up with sone strategies!
That's what I do. I focus on central banking, fiscal politics, currency exchange rates and major stock market index valuations because that's what is the most time consuming to keep up with.

Basically studying the economics end of finance boils the market down to having a better list of instruments to trade - usually in one direction, also being able to spot extremely lucrative high-probability trade opportunities in advance.

It's a study of current events that goes hand in hand with prices, improving the quality of liquidity provided and timing of the trading thus increasing reward and reducing risk altogether by choosing directions wisely.
This quarter I prefer buying AUD, EUR, GBP, ZAR, MXN, selling JPY, CHF and USD with profit-limits set 0.5%-4% profit margin on positions.
I also Also prefer selling-short XAU/USD above $1,600, buying Crude under $40 now that Gold price have rocketed and Crude price have tanked.
Another high probability low risk trade is buy stock markets because this correction is thoroughly presenting prices that will yield nominal gains.
That's buy France-40, Dow-30, Nikkei-225, AUS-200 with profit-limits set up around 10%.

As far as trading goes minimize leverage enough so one can at least double down 3 times on a position without over-exposure.
Count Of Antwerp
  • #5
  • Mar 15, 2020 12:23pm Mar 15, 2020 12:23pm
Quoting countaccrue
{quote} That's what I do. I focus on central banking, fiscal politics, currency exchange rates and major stock market index valuations because that's what is the most time consuming to keep up with. Basically studying the economics end of finance boils the market down to having a better list of instruments to trade - usually in one direction, also being able to spot extremely lucrative high-probability trade opportunities in advance. It's a study of current events that goes hand in hand with prices, improving the quality of liquidity provided and...
Very insightful! I see with events your referring to the news and politics! I consider that if I am monitroing the who lanscape of a country outside the US I can have a better feel and see which news might alter the long term direction om a short term.
I also see thar your bearish with US and bullish on Europe. Yet, your still bearish on gold with your expectations of XAU/ USD to be on the downside in favor of the US dollar.
  • #6
  • Mar 15, 2020 6:12pm Mar 15, 2020 6:12pm
Quoting Innovator757
{quote} Very insightful! I see with events your referring to the news and politics! I consider that if I am monitroing the who lanscape of a country outside the US I can have a better feel and see which news might alter the long term direction om a short term. I also see thar your bearish with US and bullish on Europe. Yet, your still bearish on gold with your expectations of XAU/ USD to be on the downside in favor of the US dollar.
These are shorter-term trend outlooks, only around 3-6 months.

Longer-term outlook is strong-buy EUR/USD to 1.20, XAU/USD to $2,500. Sell USD index. Bullish key retraced commodities/USD instruments with upside expectations above 50%.
Count Of Antwerp
  • #7
  • Mar 16, 2020 1:55am Mar 16, 2020 1:55am
Quoting Innovator757
How many here have taken interest in such trading strategies ad this of which I learned are based on , dislocation, timing, size and like from what I have learned on insight. Or, in lamens terms trading the news or " unscheduled" or "scheduled" events!
I take my directional cues from central bank and COT positioning shifts, which I view as a direct proxy for Global Macro. I posted my strategy here:

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=587512

I don't discuss my trades/positions anymore but I still trade the strategy. Take from it what you like.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #8
  • Mar 16, 2020 6:00am Mar 16, 2020 6:00am
Quoting countaccrue
{quote} These are shorter-term trend outlooks, only around 3-6 months. Longer-term outlook is strong-buy EUR/USD to 1.20, XAU/USD to $2,500. Sell USD index. Bullish key retraced commodities/USD instruments with upside expectations above 50%.
That's an interesting way of looking at it!
  • #9
  • Mar 16, 2020 8:47am Mar 16, 2020 8:47am
This isn't all that outlandish as it might look at first glance.
  • #10
  • Mar 16, 2020 3:43pm Mar 16, 2020 3:43pm
Quoting countaccrue
{quote} These are shorter-term trend outlooks, only around 3-6 months. Longer-term outlook is strong-buy EUR/USD to 1.20, XAU/USD to $2,500. Sell USD index. Bullish key retraced commodities/USD instruments with upside expectations above 50%.
I am impressed You are either extremely lucky or you have put quite a lot in laying low But I recognise one when I see one, at least judging by your post... Thumbs up! and
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #11
  • Last Post: Mar 17, 2020 12:31pm Mar 17, 2020 12:31pm
I focus on macro as I think longer-term macro trades offer the best edge. I've found the market is often wrong about macroeconomics so there's a lot of good opportunities... Short term you're up against physics PhD's with unlimited resources. I applaud those who can win in that environment, but I sure can't.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
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