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  • #781
  • Feb 1, 2020 1:14am Feb 1, 2020 1:14am
Seasonal's in Play , and some interesting Non Spreading Open interest data. Anticipating a correction but not too confident about how far or the H.T.F COT extremes. Looks like there is still room to move to the upside. I have a Short position at the High but I'm a little concerned about Commercial Longs ( users ) , still very active along with Large spec Longs. I would normally like to see these guys apposed to each other. Is that how you guys read it ?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: COTBase.com - Commitments of Traders Charts and Analysis - Mozilla Firefox 1_02_2020 6_01_43 PM.png Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: COTBase.com - Commitments of Traders Charts and Analysis - Mozilla Firefox 1_02_2020 6_01_29 PM.png Size: 43 KB
  • #782
  • Feb 12, 2020 4:29am Feb 12, 2020 4:29am
Gasoline Commercial Fail -: My take on how the Commercials react when things are going against them. Sept 2019 Commercials were buying the low at an extreme as you would expect. They then start to sell the rally until Jan 2000 when we have a reversal. They continue to sell as they have deep pockets. But when price gets to their previous Buying price , they defend it with extreme buying. Steve Briese mentions this in his Bible about how the Commercials are extremely sensitive to price. I think this is an example of that. Confluence with some oversold Weekly readings and the Seasonal influence , I think we can see higher prices to come.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #783
  • Feb 13, 2020 7:57pm Feb 13, 2020 7:57pm
Cotton -: Looking at the 1yr look-back period you would reasonably expect a correction at the Commercial net extreme. It looks like we have had that. But I feel any shorts now are playing with fire. When on the 5yr look-back we see plenty of scope for the Comms to continue Selling any rally. And then we have the Large Specs Longs whose trend following systems have detected a trend change and starting to Buy. I am thinking this correction may be over and will continue to see higher prices. What ever bells and whistles you use for confluence may be worth a look ? Swing / Position entries.
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  • #784
  • Feb 20, 2020 8:03pm Feb 20, 2020 8:03pm
Low Risk SELL on Wheat - Anticipating a Lower Swing High has been put in on the Wheat Daily chart.

#1 - Managed Money starting to Roll over
#2 - Producer / Shorts like to Sell at this price and have been Selling the Rally. I am anticipating them to head South over the next few reports
#3 - Larry Williams 2020 forecast suggests Day 53 , Today is Day 52
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COTBase.com - Commitments of Traders Charts and Analysis - Mozilla Firefox 21_02_2020 12_09_12 P.png Size: 47 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: COTBase.com - Commitments of Traders Charts and Analysis - Mozilla Firefox 21_02_2020 12_21_00 P.png Size: 46 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Wheat_53 TDOY trade.png Size: 655 KB
  • #785
  • Mar 4, 2020 2:42pm Mar 4, 2020 2:42pm
Quoting v2vboni
{image} {image}
Hi there, please advice where i can get such information that you shared. COT.
  • #786
  • Mar 4, 2020 4:33pm Mar 4, 2020 4:33pm
Quoting Wilffy
{quote} Hi there, please advice where i can get such information that you shared. COT.
Don't you have brain to GOOGLE stuff????..
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #788
  • Mar 4, 2020 5:05pm Mar 4, 2020 5:05pm
Quoting Wilffy
{quote} Hi there, please advice where i can get such information that you shared. COT.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post12777684
  • #789
  • Mar 4, 2020 7:15pm Mar 4, 2020 7:15pm
Quoting Wilffy
{quote} Hi there, please advice where i can get such information that you shared. COT.

I have it but was too busy as of late... (I'll just run my script later - but I am about to sleep) coding, trading and relaxing by the beach.

I just simply shared it exclusively on this thread herein... It just all based on CoT raw data shared by CFTC
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #790
  • Mar 9, 2020 5:13am Mar 9, 2020 5:13am
Quoting AussieBob
Gasoline Commercial Fail -: My take on how the Commercials react when things are going against them. Sept 2019 Commercials were buying the low at an extreme as you would expect. They then start to sell the rally until Jan 2000 when we have a reversal. They continue to sell as they have deep pockets. But when price gets to their previous Buying price , they defend it with extreme buying. Steve Briese mentions this in his Bible about how the Commercials are extremely sensitive to price. I think this is an example of that. Confluence with some oversold...
It looks like we have had that. But I feel any shorts now are playing with fire. When on the 5yr look-back we see plenty of scope for the Comms to continue Selling any rally. And then we have the Large Specs Longs whose trend following systems have detected a trend change and starting to Buy
  • #791
  • Mar 23, 2020 10:50am Mar 23, 2020 10:50am
Hi guys

I have previously traded CoT and wasn't that successful, mainly because I didn't have a proper entry / exit strategy. I have used MoshiM excel for many years, thanks again for the great work making the CoT excel <3

So, my questions is, what kind of entries methods do you use to get into positions? Trendlines, MA, support/resistances or supply/demand... or something totally different?
And what do you look for in the CoT? only commercials and when they are heavy long/short and a looking for a reversal?

Let me know your thoughts, I don't expect people to lay out their complete trading strategy, I know alot of work have gone into it and ofc don't give that away for free :-)
  • #792
  • Mar 31, 2020 7:38am Mar 31, 2020 7:38am
Quoting Newt
Hi guys I have previously traded CoT and wasn't that successful, mainly because I didn't have a proper entry / exit strategy. I have used MoshiM excel for many years, thanks again for the great work making the CoT excel <3 So, my questions is, what kind of entries methods do you use to get into positions? Trendlines, MA, support/resistances or supply/demand... or something totally different? And what do you look for in the CoT? only commercials and when they are heavy long/short and a looking for a reversal? Let me know your thoughts, I don't expect...
Personally I will take note when Commercials are at 3-5yr extremes anticipating a reversal . I will look to enter after the High/Low is put in , then wait for a low risk Sell/Buy being a lower swing high or higher swing low to form. This would coincide with some reaction levels I like to mark my chart with, Monthly/Weekly Open, Weekly & Daily Highs /Lows , Liquidity voids drawing price. I swing trade so I'm usually in the market for anywhere from 2-10 days depending. I like to get a reaction from my entry. If it consolidates for too long I look to get out. Once the trend is confirmed I turn my attention to the Large Specs and follow, looking for entries on a pullback at previous mentioned levels. Ultimately your trade management will determine if you succeed in this game. Hope this helps. I dont trade the smaller time frames but try put those levels on your chart and see how price reacts to them on a 5 minute chart.
  • #793
  • Apr 5, 2020 10:24pm Apr 5, 2020 10:24pm
Cocoa Upside ? -:

#1. This one looks ready to PoP. When we have a injection of Longs and decrease in Shorts while Comms Net is at a high, we usually see a low in the market.
#2. Percentage % Value of Commercial Longs and Shorts of Total Open Interest
#3. Seasonal.
#4. Market at a Premium
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: COTBase.com.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: COTBase.com -.png Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Coacoa_Seasonal.jpg Size: 120 KB
Attached Image
  • #794
  • Apr 24, 2020 5:02pm Apr 24, 2020 5:02pm
Quoting MoshiM
{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post12777684

AM not able to download Excek from Drive.. Pls suggest me
  • #795
  • Edited 8:17pm Apr 27, 2020 7:59pm | Edited 8:17pm
Quoting venkateshr56
{quote} AM not able to download Excek from Drive.. Pls suggest me
Can you share any more details on what the issue is? Try this link instead https://1drv.ms/u/s!ApYQ2qNHXVWPapuP...lzTqU?e=XLgDC3
  • #796
  • May 1, 2020 12:26pm May 1, 2020 12:26pm
Quoting MoshiM
{quote} Can you share any more details on what the issue is? Try this link instead https://1drv.ms/u/s!ApYQ2qNHXVWPapuP...lzTqU?e=XLgDC3
After downloaded fils automatically disappearing from my system..

Please find below attachment FYI
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 10 KB
  • #797
  • Edited 7:57pm May 1, 2020 7:29pm | Edited 7:57pm
Quoting venkateshr56
{quote} After downloaded fils automatically disappearing from my system.. Please find below attachment FYI {image}
Try downloading this as a test > https://1drv.ms/t/s!ApYQ2qNHXVWPdsINWM5DwPMNUUQ?e=AETBZb.
It's an empty Text file.

If it's a File type issue then I have also uploaded .xlsm versions of the workbooks to the same link in my previous reply.
If it's an issue with the file-hosting websites then there are others we can try.
  • #798
  • May 2, 2020 7:23pm May 2, 2020 7:23pm
#1 - My focus this week is Corn based on COT data. This is Commercial Net position (Red) vs Commercial Shorts.

#2 - This chart is about Total Open Interest. Larry teachers to focus on Who ? is moving Open Interest. The Top window shows Commercial Longs (Red) vs Non Commercial Longs ( Blue). The Middle window is The Shorts. Bottom is Total Open Interest. It's the Commercial Longs that are moving Open Interest.

#3 - This one is Commercial Longs (Red) /Shorts (White) % of their Open Interest. Meaning , of all the Longs in the Market (Comms/Non Comms/ Non Reportables/ , the Commercial Longs have a very high percentage and Commercial Shorts have a low percentage.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CORNDaily-3.png Size: 48 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CORNDaily-2.png Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CORNDaily.png Size: 70 KB
  • #799
  • Edited 6:51pm Aug 28, 2020 3:31pm | Edited 6:51pm
Small update to files.

I've gotten around to also automating the Futures Only version of the reports along with a couple other fixes and additions :
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/4d92geb2u...zeNBFchka?dl=0
  • #800
  • Aug 31, 2020 10:23pm Aug 31, 2020 10:23pm
Quoting MoshiM
Small update to files. I've gotten around to also automating the Futures Only version of the reports along with a couple other fixes and additions : https://www.dropbox.com/sh/4d92geb2u...zeNBFchka?dl=0
Hi MoshiM,

Thanks for sharing.
Can you kindly explain the following and its significant?
I am lost...

 

  1. Commercial_3YI
  2. Non-Commercial_3YI
  3. Non_Reportable_3YI
  4. Commercial 6MI
  5. Non_Commercial_6MI
  6. Non_Reportable_6MI
  7. Commercial Over OI
  8. WillCo 6M
  9. WillCo 3Y
  10. Movement Index
  11. Non-Commercial Long %

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