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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #6,841
  • Feb 26, 2020 4:28am Feb 26, 2020 4:28am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} My bear, the best FX analyst ever ...$250 steps down... {image}
I told my bear to relax, but he insists to bring up his savant analysis !
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  • #6,842
  • Feb 26, 2020 4:37am Feb 26, 2020 4:37am
Whilst your bear has a rest, I'm buying a pull back (& will try not to wake him up)
Could be too many Short sellers getting exited that its falling off a cliff, time to trap some Long.

400 pip bounce back?

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  • #6,843
  • Feb 26, 2020 6:07am Feb 26, 2020 6:07am
Quoting GingerJohn
Whilst your bear has a rest, I'm buying a pull back (& will try not to wake him up) Could be too many Short sellers getting exited that its falling off a cliff, time to trap some Long. 400 pip bounce back? {image}
Out, the bear is still awake
  • #6,844
  • Feb 26, 2020 8:26am Feb 26, 2020 8:26am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} I told my bear to relax, but he insists to bring up his savant analysis ! {image}

Quoting GingerJohn
{quote} Out, the bear is still awake
Yeap, lazy bears still there. 9000 support pierced. It's sad. Bulls left !
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  • #6,845
  • Edited 11:43am Feb 26, 2020 11:08am | Edited 11:43am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Yes, I know the fixed inflation idea. It sounds a little bit like Hayek-Friedman. And how are you going to control that in a crypto free economy? Moving crypto rates carefully than they already do with dollar ? BTW, the average Joe-n-k should mind his business, it's not imperative for him to understand monetary policy. He can gamble on bitcoin, make his million and call everyone stupid as a boor character he is. Inflation is not the single problem of this world. Crypto people treat it like is the only one. Deflation can be disastrous....
Like I said it would be *ideal* if inflation is ties to GDP metric because as more people arrive, GDP should theoretically increase and during slumps inflation should decrease, but we don't have anything like that. A central actor guessing based on which way the wind blows like today doesn't work and therefor the *best we have* that we can do is deflationary, and it is more ideal than a central inflation scheme. A deflationary economy without crypto isn't possible which is why it was never done anyway. Average joe cares because he wants to know if he should invest/divest/hold or do what with his money, having a deterministic path towards supply gives him some guidance on what to expect because as we know volatility in the system (not talking about prices but about specifications of the system) is going to wreak havoc on what people want to do with their money and expectations which is obviously not what any monetary system should be about. The fact that we must shock the system because we didn't have the ability to calculate inflation target properly shows we need to re-think that policy and try something better, something more ideal than today but obviously work towards the next iteration. Just like how gold standard was abolished for a more ideal system (central bank rate targetted inflation) (gold didn't work because its was not fungible, and horrible medium of exchange, but not the case with crypto).

I'm not cherry-picking btw, if you read through my old posts I have been talking about the same thing for a long time, these realizations have been made without rose coloured glasses. Just that seeing what Bitcoin was, helped me see the "why".

Maybe a marriage between gold or silver+crypto if done right is interesting but that is besides the point.
  • #6,846
  • Feb 26, 2020 4:11pm Feb 26, 2020 4:11pm
Yesterday I posted "With another $192 loss today Bitcoin's health doesn't look good." Today was worse so I can say with another $629 loss today Bitcoin is getting more sick. Maybe Bitcoin got the bear disease
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  • #6,847
  • Edited 12:51am Feb 27, 2020 12:22am | Edited 12:51am
Quoting sidhujag
{quote} Like I said it would be *ideal* if inflation is ties to GDP metric because as more people arrive, GDP should theoretically increase and during slumps inflation should decrease, but we don't have anything like that. A central actor guessing based on which way the wind blows like today doesn't work and therefor the *best we have* that we can do is deflationary, and it is more ideal than a central inflation scheme. A deflationary economy without crypto isn't possible which is why it was never done anyway. Average joe cares because he wants...
Wait, too much confusion.
I would not call "guessing based on which way the wind blows" when a central actor is reading indicators in the field. He is rather 'collecting' data, variables for his equation. Not guessing.

Then, the main purpose of the central banks is not ONLY to make it easy for the investors and/or depositors.
The central's main task is not to help me and Joe DIRECTLY to preserve wealth for our sons (with zero risk)
They help the generic "everybody" ...by creating value stability and stimulating full employment.

So the monetary supply is a variable which must be adjusted both ways inflationary (cutting rates) and deflationary (rising rates) and is linked deeply on labour market dynamics, lending business, population...
Ideal or not, monetary FLEXIBILITY is the only way !

I can understand that equality, Joe's life savings without risk, a deterministic path towards inflation, putting economy in a box and fix all the global monetary mess with an universal formula available for every Joe is an old dream of the ...human kind. But, in my view, this is impossible without killing the free market.
"Deterministic path" is wrong in all possible ways.

Sorry, what do you mean by gold failed because no fungible and horrible medium of exchange ?
Well, I don't think crypto is fungible, ...every code is unique. (funny story, I heard some idiots won't use those particular crypto codes which changed hands with cocaine dirty hands LOL)
Gold as medium of exchange ? Come on, you dont need to pay coffee in gold!! Under gold standard, dollar was some sort of a "gold certificate", UNIFORM, divisible, portable, became easily a unit of account... good enough for a reasonable medium of exchange.
Gold failed because generating this deflationary effect which acts as an economic break also adding risk of deepening recessions !

In my heart I wish you crypto guys to change this old corrupted world for better, and I wish you Sid to be right and your coin to make a great difference... but is just that I'm not sure that you are right.
Member
  • #6,848
  • Feb 27, 2020 9:33am Feb 27, 2020 9:33am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Wait, too much confusion. I would not call "guessing based on which way the wind blows" when a central actor is reading indicators in the field. He is rather 'collecting' data, variables for his equation. Not guessing. Then, the main purpose of the central banks is not ONLY to make it easy for the investors and/or depositors. The central's main task is not to help me and Joe DIRECTLY to preserve wealth for our sons (with zero risk) They help the generic "everybody" ...by creating value stability and stimulating full employment. So the monetary...
idealisitically it makes sense for rates to be targeting these dynamics and inflation deflation to adjust based on the market but in practice we have seen it much harder because of a) human greed b) not being able to find correct local or global optima for determining rates c) a monetary system which will continue to lose purchasing power over time because of b...
in theory it makes sense and you have complete stability.. that is the most ideal form of money that can be had, but because of the aforementioned problems in practice it does not work as we have seen with policies applied that have had consequences I don’t think were intended or were known and was the only option at the time. I keep saying this and I’ll say it again, it’s not about a perfect system because none are perfect it’s about which is better (more ideal) within all the options on the table. Because of those problems I believe a decentralized monetary system is more ideal until we have the next major shift in technology that lets us create something even more appreciatively innovative for society to shift to. Until then the cat is out of the bag (I believe) and the market will slowly dissipitate from central bank control to something else (may not actually be a good thing in the short or medium term). It’s just market dynamics in action, and Nash equilibrium forcing money to move where it’s more efficient, preserves value and is speculative in its utility to be basis for all value. Dumb money also shifts in similar direction for other reasons and therefor we have a recipe for strong network affect from every actor except the central banks which is a mountain they cannot climb.
  • #6,849
  • Feb 27, 2020 3:20pm Feb 27, 2020 3:20pm
Quoting vikinsa
Check this multi timeframe fibonacci analysis of Bitcoin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYZirl4ziHc
BTCUSD Reached First Target Feb 27, 2020

https://www.tradingview.com/x/MibsTH0O/
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Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #6,850
  • Feb 27, 2020 4:08pm Feb 27, 2020 4:08pm
Woohoo Bitcoin went up $7 today. Does anybody think that the bear left to hibernate some more?
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  • #6,851
  • Feb 28, 2020 2:07am Feb 28, 2020 2:07am
I could see a crazy short spike up to 9000, trapping Bulls before a continuation down.


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  • #6,852
  • Feb 28, 2020 5:54am Feb 28, 2020 5:54am
The third pumpy wave weak. Crypto pumping weaker and weaker.
Hard to believe that bitcoin scam doesn't work anymore as it used to
Crypto crooks would call that consolidation ! Sure, consolidation before the final crash !
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  • #6,853
  • Feb 28, 2020 7:42am Feb 28, 2020 7:42am
Quoting TudorIoan
The third pumpy wave weak. Crypto pumping weaker and weaker. Hard to believe that bitcoin scam doesn't work anymore as it used to Crypto crooks would call that consolidation ! Sure, consolidation before the final crash ! {image}

Well, you may be right

I have a tiny 0.01L SL@9000 as my own signal provider.

And then all further south.

Down the hill
A new consciousness for Humanity?
Being now: Are WE a Holy Grail? Return Today: na
  • #6,854
  • Feb 28, 2020 11:53am Feb 28, 2020 11:53am
The problem with general public relying on democracy to adjudicate policy makers in aligning interests is this: https://twitter.com/noamchomskyT/sta...16093911470080 and thus a system where aligning interests is no longer required, its a product of the system is desired outcome number 1, secondary desired outcomes including markets developed and economy development on top of those systems.
  • #6,855
  • Feb 28, 2020 1:13pm Feb 28, 2020 1:13pm
What do you think would happen to BTC/USD if...

All the central banks cut rates this Sunday?

Last time it happened (8th Oct 2008) Bitcoin was non-existent!
  • #6,856
  • Feb 28, 2020 3:06pm Feb 28, 2020 3:06pm
Bitcoin suffered another $126 loss today. Bear winning.
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  • #6,857
  • Edited 12:53am Feb 29, 2020 12:18am | Edited 12:53am
Bitcoin can only generate libertarianism, savage crypto-barter ecosystem. We've seen this shit working in the past ...it was just perfect to boost oligarchies and widen the gap between the rich and the poor.
Dumb crypto fanatics dont read history, and even if they read history they learn nothing because they are too obsessed of their shit and they simply can't pull their heads out of their crypto box.

I say crypto obviously dead on the long run
Member
  • #6,858
  • Edited 12:55am Feb 29, 2020 12:23am | Edited 12:55am
Quoting Harry6
{quote} Well, you may be right I have a tiny 0.01L SL@9000 as my own signal provider. And then all further south. Down the hill
Outch, dont count on 9K, Harry !
Anyways, I love stability between 8-10K ...woah, bitcoin not volatile at all !!

Remember folks, every time you don't sell bitcoin a whale does !
Member
  • #6,859
  • Feb 29, 2020 6:58am Feb 29, 2020 6:58am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Outch, dont count on 9K, Harry ! Anyways, I love stability between 8-10K ...woah, bitcoin not volatile at all !! Remember folks, every time you don't sell bitcoin a whale does !
A new consciousness for Humanity?
Being now: Are WE a Holy Grail? Return Today: na
  • #6,860
  • Feb 29, 2020 10:51am Feb 29, 2020 10:51am
Quoting TudorIoan
Bitcoin can only generate libertarianism, savage crypto-barter ecosystem. We've seen this shit working in the past ...it was just perfect to boost oligarchies and widen the gap between the rich and the poor. Dumb crypto fanatics dont read history, and even if they read history they learn nothing because they are too obsessed of their shit and they simply can't pull their heads out of their crypto box. I say crypto obviously dead on the long run
Here is a nugget for you to digest: https://twitter.com/realSidhuJag/sta...96034079256582
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