XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

Corona distorted markets much... also helped GOLD much Love gold going up as we talked and talked and not many believed Now the "sky" is the limit...
Sky=2000

I think the coronavirus is weighing on the yen. Japan has the most infections after China and I think traders are pricing in the coronavirus slowing their economy. If so the BOJ might act and push down the yen so the divergence between the yen and gold makes sense.

Hi UnoWoo,

may i know what timeframe is this? thanks

watching 1650-60 area to short

That is good, that is good Going that way...

I wonder when the bulls that are pushing gold will take a break

huge turmoils running in gold without any retracements , now price over the expected target as of old pa , yeah extension can run towards 1779 target though but will only wait for breakout as a sharp last leg up likely doing. . take care

#GOLD / H4

Currently gold is up 1.17% since Friday's close. I decided to do a quick study to see if gold advancing more than 1.1% in a day implied it would continue higher 1, 5 and 30 days into the future. As it turns out, big one day gains in gold DO NOT suggest there will be continued gains into the future.



Gold has actually been up more than 1.1% in a single day 402 times since 2007. I found that surprising since gold is regarded as one of the least volatile commodities.

If gold winds up going higher today I'll redo the study and we'll see if the results change.

Ah! Statistics. Has someone else checked the averages in your table?

Yep, it follows an approximate Gaussian probability distribution (a bell shape, which some may have seen - the further away from an average, the less it happens. Most stuff happens around the average).

Actual average daily change is close to zero, about positive 0.02% since 1982 to August 2018. Standard deviation of 1.05.

What that means is that about 68% of daily changes are within 0.02% plus or minus 1.05% = minus 1.03% to positive 1.07%.

(That's coincidentally roughly +1.1% amongst friends, enough for ears to prick up when on the edge of the second standard deviation. I personally like 3rd or 4th or greater standard deviations days best, but that's just me).

100 less 68 = 32.

So, about 32% of the time we will see daily changes greater than about 1.07% or less than minus 1.03% (which is a bigger negative number than -1.03%).

Clear as mud?

I could copy and paste a chart from Excel which makes things all nice and understandable even by a CEO, but oh my, advanced technology makes my three neurons plan a mutiny.

edit - for the avoidance of doubt, nothing here says what will actually happen tomorrow. I could calculate the probabilities of stuff happening or not happening easily, but that is academic - casino type probabilities and largely irrelevant. Highly relevant to that one or two other people who play options, but I digress.

looks like finally Virus antidote will be made from Gold!!! 1700 is eminent today

Thanks for the feedback.

GLD only closed up .9% so not a particularly remarkable day. Regarding accuracy though, I'll doublecheck my numbers when I get home later. 1.1% would be roughly in the top 12% of biggest gains. I agree with you LloydOz that 3rd and 4th st devs are more interesting.

Now that I have the spreadsheet set up, I can answer any scenario you wish to know on daily data from 1982 to 2018. I doubt whether any will be totally consistent with the theoretical numbers I spat out previously, knowing fat tails - google that. Nothing to do with foxes.

The average move is -0.04% after a prior day increase greater than 1%. 1,149 observations.

I think this is fondly known as data-mining. It is not strictly analysis, however certain conclusions may be inferred.

Most likely it will retrace to 38.20% Fibonacci retracement which is at 1600 zone maybe 1580 to retest the broken pennant.
So far Coronavirus effects on the market seem to start to fade away. We've been scalping since the market open this week. It was a great trade, can't complain.

Please reanalyze the chart to find a good entry and exit on the lower TF, because of this analysis base on the Daily chart. Good luck!

Chart February 24, 2020
https://www.tradingview.com/x/s94q3hi5/

Current Market Price Chart
https://www.tradingview.com/x/PwQuOM4V/


Feel free to contact me if you have any questions. Telegram: @Gold_Cartel , or you can join my Telegram free channel https://t.me/goldcartel

You don't think I know what fat tails are? Come on LloydOz.
Indeed it is, I have a separate thread called 'Metals (data) Mining'. lol

GOLD market overview
Here is the 12h chart. I mixed data from 3 sources - CME and MOEX exchanges, Oanda broker.


I plotted the 5 wave-lines of the up-trend channel:
1] Overbought
3] Center Trend-line
5] Oversold
[2 and 4] - intermediate lines.
Note, the up-trend started (as always) from the "initial down-move" (bold red arrow).
Red Square - an important price zone. It was formed around 1600 - psychological number.

6] on 08/Jan, the price entered into the overbought condition and made the first touch with the Red Zone. The volume was very high on this up-bar. It was a high activity caused by a notable event in the media. "Gold price surges amid geopolitical uncertainty" - screamed headlines. Google Trends registered a spike of popularity of the "gold price" topic. This is typical for FOMO Euphoria. Not surprisingly, we got ...

7] ... a pullback from the January highs around 1600.
8] Actually, the price found support around the center-line of the trend-channel. This is an important line, the 'heartbeat' of the trend.
9] With the help of the center-line, bulls made the second attempt to overcome major red zone. But we got this extra-high up-bar with the immediate reversal on the very next red bar. If the volume behind the bar [9] did represent the bullish activity, why did the price close so low on the next bar?

So, the second attempt failed.
In order to overcome the major 1600 red zone, bulls constructed...
10] ...this manipulation move (Shake-out, or artificial minor Panic). This move found support around line [4].
11] The test of the panic [10] Zone. Classical tech analysts would describe this pattern as 'cup and handle', but I'd like to interpret it as "exhausting of selling pressure in the former Panic levels" (bullish indication).
12] Final preparation. A minute of dead silence before the explosion. Micro No_Suplly activity before the breakout.
13] The third attempt succeeded!
14] Again overbought (like it was on 08/Jan)

So what?
Currently (from 12h view), the market is developing the pullback from the overbought zone. The line [2] is providing (temporary?) support. We have a lot of support levels below the current price. These levels increase the reiteration of the scenario "overbought-pullback-resuming_uptrend".

Watch for the bouncing from the center-line or Red Zone (Now Should act as the Major Support).

Take a look at the previous post↑