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Successful traders are very, very rare to find

  • #721
  • Edited 10:28am Jan 22, 2020 10:14am | Edited 10:28am
Quoting auricforecas
https://www.trendfollowing.com/losers_average_losers/ {image}

The picture and phrase is so true.

I've seen so many ppl (also high-net-worth traders) or (smaller) funds doing exactly that.

On the other hand: pyramiding against these sucker pockets is one of the most lucrative trading ways if you know how to do it.
  • #722
  • Jan 22, 2020 3:21pm Jan 22, 2020 3:21pm
Guys, just 5 trades, in sequence, like THIS.. and you would not need to trade EVER AGAIN!!! Think about it! Stop dreaming of being CRAZY profitable for YEARS or for LIFE! Wouldn't be better to COME, WIN AF an GO AWAY? (Still play on the side, for life even, but because you WANT to, not because you NEED to).
Read it 100x times if you need to... Very simple but hard to get.. Contribute if you can, tnx!
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #723
  • Jan 26, 2020 5:27am Jan 26, 2020 5:27am
Quoting Rennaissance
I don't know your experience, but successful traders are very hard to find. A lot of guys who seem successful will fail over the long because they use negatively skewed strategies. What's your experience guys?
If a trader was successful for 6 months in a row, then I don't see any reason for them not to be successful in any of the months that follow.
Risk Management is of utmost importance!
  • #724
  • Jan 26, 2020 12:40pm Jan 26, 2020 12:40pm
Quoting auricforecas
R:R 1:1 dreamers might read this... https://www.trendfollowing.com/losers_average_losers/ {image}
This guy an Taleb are 2 of the biggest idiots in the world.
  • #725
  • Jan 26, 2020 3:26pm Jan 26, 2020 3:26pm
Quoting OutThere
{quote} This guy an Taleb are 2 of the biggest idiots in the world.
Why? Curious to know. I do not have firm opinion btw but curious on your views, so please share
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #726
  • Jan 26, 2020 3:35pm Jan 26, 2020 3:35pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Why? Curious to know. I do not have firm opinion btw but curious on your views, so please share
I would (by the verification of a qualified 3rd party) prove that their claims are false and misleading provided they issue public apologies and in the case of Taleb, he needs to refund all those who bought his stupid books.
  • #727
  • Jan 26, 2020 3:37pm Jan 26, 2020 3:37pm
Quoting OutThere
{quote} I would (by the verification of a qualified 3rd party) prove that their claims are false and misleading provided they issue public apologies and in the case of Taleb, he needs to refund all those who bought his stupid books.
Interesting. Which claims in particular?
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #728
  • Jan 26, 2020 3:40pm Jan 26, 2020 3:40pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Interesting. Which claims in particular?
Jones: The claim on the wall behind his picture. Taleb: whatever he has to say about martingale.
  • #729
  • Jan 27, 2020 1:46am Jan 27, 2020 1:46am
Quoting OutThere
{quote} This guy an Taleb are 2 of the biggest idiots in the world.

Taleb. An idiot. That might be a bit harsh OutThere.

I could even say that statement is a bit ‘out there’ (only ‘time will tell’ I guess ).

Taleb has never written that I can remember about “martingale” in the lay person fashion as - someone doubling a bet on an even money chance, after losing an initial bet, in the hope of eventually winning their original stake back - and one unit more.

Taleb has written about martingale I see in the concept of “Martingale pricing” that is used apparently in quantitative finance institutions.

https://quant.stackexchange.com/ques...ingale-pricing

But all this is well over my head, and not something I would use in everyday life.

A bit like when I was asked in 2nd form by my Geography teacher how tall was Mt Everest. I answered 30,000ft and was promptly told I was wrong, in front of the whole class.

(I just checked again and it is officially 29,030 feet but because of plate tectonics and Mt Everest growing taller, ever so slightly, it might just hit 30,000 ft one day. )

I did have a look again at Taleb’s: Election Predictions as Martingales: An Arbitrage Approach
where he concludes for the finance guys …

“As to the current practice by forecasters, although some election forecasters appear to be aware of the need to minimize their Brier Score, the idea that the revisions of estimates should also be "subjected to martingale valuation" is not well established.

So to me the answer is a pineapple as we say in Oz. That is, who knows!


I don’t think Taleb ever wrote about the use of a doubling-up martingale (as I know it) in casino gambling for example.


His Black Swan book that I read (and loved) would probably have Taleb betting on the roulette long shot of 15 reds happening (after 14 reds spun) rather than following the punter who kept playing black till he was margin called - if he was given better odds than the even money usually offered.

The other guy you mentioned I don’t know, sorry.

Written in good spirits & good will. All the best.
  • #730
  • Jan 27, 2020 7:49am Jan 27, 2020 7:49am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Taleb. An idiot. That might be a bit harsh OutThere. I could even say that statement is a bit ‘out there’ (only ‘time will tell’ I guess ). Taleb has never written that I can remember about “martingale” in the lay person fashion as - someone doubling a bet on an even money chance, after losing an initial bet, in the hope of eventually winning their original stake back - and one unit more. Taleb has written about martingale I see in the concept of “Martingale pricing” that is used apparently in quantitative finance institutions. https://quant.stackexchange.com/ques...ingale-pricing...
Taleb does not hesitate to attack his critics with words much more colorful than 'idiot'.

I am sure he feels justified to see the world through his mathematical models but at the end of the day, they are just mathematical models that he has constructed using given assumptions and measures and therefore conclusions that they produce. Trading in the market is much more dynamic than his models and so are the traders.

If you start walking down the sidewalk and take x steps, you will eventually arrive at an intersection and continuing that path, you will enter a busy intersection and get run over by a bus. That is a fair assessment but only a blind/deaf or distraught or distracted person would follow that path. It is not hard to be all that when trading the market and we have all got run over by buses at one point or another but there are things we can do along the way to avoid that fate. That element is missing from his teachings. Not that I have studied all his teachings or anything but what he is famous for is that if you martingale, sooner or later your account will blow up.

His mathematical models are static. Traders and the markets are dynamic and we live in groundhog days every day and every cycle. I'd still martingale the hell out of trades at random or at determined points to draw a profit just to prove him wrong. Of course there is an expectation to never ever fail at it but it would be only fair if that expectation was placed on all trading strategies as well.

I don't know the other guy either but his old picture with the loser statement keeps appearing here and there all the time.
  • #731
  • Jan 27, 2020 11:59am Jan 27, 2020 11:59am
Quoting RCtrader
{quote} If a trader was successful for 6 months in a row, then I don't see any reason for them not to be successful in any of the months that follow.
I think this criteria is very poor. In fact I do not regard it as a criteria at all.. Have seen many "successful" traders for 6 months, specially when they were trend-surfing.. You can find "6-month" gurus everywhere... Many TEs... Etc.. Time criteria alone can mean nothing, if you ask me... That is why they deliver alpha to begin with... Then there are stat models that try to eliminate luck etc... Basically it is very hard to know when someone has a juice, luck or surfing... Very hard... Many fall for it.. I saw it before, when it was nothing but EXP climb until... I can not tell you what the right criteria is since I am still not sure, at least for border ones, cause we all know what super success would mean right.. making 100k USD out of 100USD, but I can tell you what criteria is not good and this time (6 month alone) tells us nothing really.. At which point it wouldn't even matter if it was luck or not right, almost But those border success are hardest to detect... If you find a criteria how to find successful from unsuccessful.. let me know...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #732
  • Jan 27, 2020 12:23pm Jan 27, 2020 12:23pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote}You can find "6-month" gurus everywhere...
That made me laugh . Though I do believe in the fact that if you were successful for 6 months it means that you are at a higher level then all those who fail in one, two weeks, or one, two months.
Risk Management is of utmost importance!
  • #733
  • Jan 27, 2020 12:29pm Jan 27, 2020 12:29pm
Quoting RCtrader
{quote} That made me laugh . Though I do believe in the fact that if you were successful for 6 months it means that you are at a higher level then all those who fail in one, two weeks, or one, two months.
You are right but you know what the danger is? Believing one has it when one doesn't... Not related, probably but do you know how gamblers become gamblers?
I do not think anyone becomes a gambler by losing all the time... What happens in most cases that I have come across is that they got certain LUCK at one point that they might reason as "I figured out the system" etc... Same as poker... they try and "WIN" within certain time and fall into a rabbit hole...

That is why I quoted you in order to prevent anyone to jump to conclusions too early because it might destroy them I mean, if they play on the side is one thing, but leaving job, school awaiting to be come a billy.. might be risky unless really got something, right

I mean, time alone does not mean anything... In certain trends or serial of rather stable trend-changes... can be even years... means nothing... Then there is a news factor that can either destroy your trades or blow win in your back... And there is also money management... One can be good at price prediction but very bad at harvest, money management... Some might put low TP and no sL and have a very high win-rate.. until SL/margin_call hits...

So what I want is to know asap... rather have nothing and be aware of it, soon.. than to fake myself I have it when there is nothing there... Saw many many of those that though "I have it" to later woke up after YEARS realising the wasted time...

BTW looking for a "formula" to extract good traders from bad ones Very hard to do btw... for border cases specially... So if you come with some good method, let us know Also, markets moves like a cruise ships most of the time, meaning that they might go turn in opposite direction first which some might interpret as SL.. but price would hit later, after the "ship" turns... And also much more fake TPs... that always hit the SWAN, later The smart ones maybe know this and pull out in time
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #734
  • Jan 27, 2020 12:33pm Jan 27, 2020 12:33pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} I think this criteria is very poor. In fact I do not regard it as a criteria at all.. Have seen many "successful" traders for 6 months, specially when they were trend-surfing.. You can find "6-month" gurus everywhere... Many TEs... Etc.. Time criteria alone can mean nothing, if you ask me... That is why they deliver alpha to begin with... Then there are stat models that try to eliminate luck etc... Basically it is very hard to know when someone has a juice, luck or surfing... Very hard... Many fall for it.. I saw it before, when it was nothing...
Those funded trading companies are happy with 6 months.
  • #735
  • Jan 27, 2020 8:26pm Jan 27, 2020 8:26pm
Quoting OutThere
{quote} I'd still martingale the hell out of trades at random or at determined points to draw a profit just to prove him wrong.

Trades at random just to prove Taleb wrong sounds like a type of revenge trading and is best avoided at all costs in FX.


But in the highlighted aspect you mentioned, I agree.

Those 'determined' points when you have the market on the run, hammer them, and possibly MORE than just a simple martingale double up.

All the best.

(edit - I also enjoyed his other book very much - "Fooled by Randomness")
  • #736
  • Jan 27, 2020 9:22pm Jan 27, 2020 9:22pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Trades at random just to prove Taleb wrong sounds like a type of revenge trading and is best avoided at all costs in FX. But in the highlighted aspect you mentioned, I agree. Those 'determined' points when you have the market on the run, hammer them, and possibly MORE than just a simple martingale double up. All the best. (edit - I also enjoyed his other book very much - "Fooled by Randomness")
Actually, he says a lot of good things in his book Fooled by randomness... Summary ------> https://thepowermoves.com/fooled-by-randomness-summary/

A buddy who is absolutely against martingale, suggested it to me so I could see the 'light' and realize how bad martingale it is. I don't know and why Taleb is implicated in this. From reading some of his stuff, I now realize he is cool about randomness. I actually agree with him. lol Maybe it's the other guy with the picture that gets under my skin.

However. in general:

There is a lot of explanation on martingale and boy, they are all bad. It'd be like saying this about dogs: Dirty rabid beasts with fangs running around terrorizing innocent people and on occasion mauling them to death. If you want to live, stay away from them.
Then this is followed with sad horrible stories by people who having trusted a dog, are in pain forever and have scars to show.

Then you look at your dog and think, my dog would never do that. Well, sometimes if I neglect him, push his buttons and ride him like a horse and just downright abuse him, yes, that could happen but I know better than that.

Now come on Marty, lets go for a walk and then you're gonna jump in the tub filled with warm water and your favorite bubble bath soap....and don't worry about what these guys say about you...we know better. Don't we?
  • #737
  • Jan 27, 2020 10:03pm Jan 27, 2020 10:03pm
Quoting OutThere
{quote} Jones: The claim on the wall behind his picture. Taleb: whatever he has to say about martingale.
Did you just say you would prove Paul Tudor Jones wrong?
  • #738
  • Jan 27, 2020 10:17pm Jan 27, 2020 10:17pm
Quoting HoySauce12
{quote} Did you just say you would prove Paul Tudor Jones wrong?
YES
  • #739
  • Jan 27, 2020 10:23pm Jan 27, 2020 10:23pm
Quoting OutThere
{quote} YES

oh man where’s my popcorn.

Waiting patiently
  • #740
  • Jan 27, 2020 10:28pm Jan 27, 2020 10:28pm
Quoting HoySauce12
{quote} oh man where’s my popcorn. Waiting patiently
Get him to get in touch with me.

If I win, he can take a picture with "I AM A CLOWN" framed behind him and put side by side with his 80's picture about losers.

That's all I am asking for.
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