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Historical News data and news trading 5 replies

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Trading news and sentiment

  • #301
  • Jan 16, 2020 4:35pm Jan 16, 2020 4:35pm
update

been burning the candle on getting the formula done for the base indexes which is comprised of the following indicators and aggregated into groups

consumer

  1. unemployment
  2. job numbers
  3. housing (starts, new builds etc)
  4. sentiment
  5. retail sales

business

  1. sentiment
  2. service and manufacturing PMI (ism also for the U.S.)
  3. inventories
  4. productivity
  5. industrial production

inflation

  1. base inflation
  2. core inflation
  3. producer prices
  4. expectations

interest rates
central bank balance sheet

here is a breakdown of the formula with each of these on its own series. Eventually, it will have central bank sentiment and news sentiment added.

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  • #302
  • Jan 22, 2020 4:08pm Jan 22, 2020 4:08pm
Quoting EcoTrader
update been burning the candle on getting the formula done for the base indexes which is comprised of the following indicators and aggregated into groups consumer unemployment job numbers housing (starts, new builds etc) sentiment retail sales business sentiment service and manufacturing PMI (ism also for the U.S.) inventories productivity industrial production inflation base inflation core inflation producer prices expectations interest rates central bank balance sheet here is a breakdown of the formula with each of these on its own series. Eventually,...
wow..this is amazing..when will it be completed?
  • #303
  • Jan 25, 2020 3:02am Jan 25, 2020 3:02am
Quoting Sami1990
{quote} wow..this is amazing..when will it be completed?
hi Sami

Most likely in a few months. There is a lot of work that needs to be done to achieve this including building a website from scratch (not using one of those do it yourself sites because they don't offer the features I need). it also involves building backend architecture in the cloud that will be calculating the indices and providing an Api option for users.

You asked about subscription in messages and yes it will be subscription access only. Cloud architecture fees and data vendor fees will set me back about 600 a month (most of this is the cost of the data). I am not planning on ripping people off so it won't be a large outlay to subscribe and I'll have different options such as api only or api and site. Down the road I'll be building indicators for this but not before I add central bank monetary policy sentiment indices and real-time news sentiment indices. The news feed I can do through my data provider but I have to scrape central bank statements from their websites and that's a real pain in the you know what given I want at least 10 years history. I will also make the methodology available so that transparency is there to provide confidence in the process.

If you are a fundamental trader or a technical trader, you will benefit from having a consistent unbiased view of fundamentals in a visual form that will add value to your trading. when the central bank sentiment and news sentiment are added, new trading strategies can be devised and automated if the trader desires. At its most basic level, you will be able to devise trading plans by trading diverging economies. I plan on offering an index studio where you can compare economies and save your preferences in a dashboard
  • #304
  • Mar 14, 2020 11:59am Mar 14, 2020 11:59am
No apologies for going off topic.
Off topic, but how about instead of just making money from it.
Why not help by joining international volunteer group to stop the Covid-19 outbreak?
See this Twitter thread: https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/sta...67530638282752
They have a group Slack workspace, which I have joined, for organising and sharing ideas.

They are looking for organising skills, technical skills down to people to deliver food to those self isolating and vulnerable, or just people with contacts/influence to find others with skills etc.
  • #305
  • May 6, 2020 9:41pm May 6, 2020 9:41pm
Why would you look at 10 yr bonds over lets say 2yr or 5yr
  • #306
  • May 7, 2020 6:00am May 7, 2020 6:00am
Quoting Grimsavage
Why would you look at 10 yr bonds over lets say 2yr or 5yr
Not sure who you are asking, since EcoTrader doesn't post in here anymore.
However many people use the 10yr bond yields spreads for Forex e.g. 1/(US10YrYield- DE10YrYield) as a correlation to EUR/USD.
But that isn't to say that they ignore the 2Yr Yield or the 30yr Yield - just that almost every country has a 10yr Bond and it represents a midpoint between the 2yr (driven almost totally by the short term economy) and the 30yr (driven much more by Inflation).

I hope this helps.

P.S. If you want to learn more about institutional style trading - why not visit my threads.
  • #307
  • May 7, 2020 9:20am May 7, 2020 9:20am
Quoting ianf0ster
{quote} Not sure who you are asking, since EcoTrader doesn't post in here anymore. However many people use the 10yr bond yields spreads for Forex e.g. 1/(US10YrYield- DE10YrYield) as a correlation to EUR/USD. But that isn't to say that they ignore the 2Yr Yield or the 30yr Yield - just that almost every country has a 10yr Bond and it represents a midpoint between the 2yr (driven almost totally by the short term economy) and the 30yr (driven much more by Inflation). I hope this helps. P.S. If you want to learn more about institutional style trading...
Institutions trade on a long term investment. What you are showing according to your charts, is day trading. So no, your style is not institutional trading.
  • #308
  • May 7, 2020 11:29am May 7, 2020 11:29am
I'm not talking about pension Funds and Individual stocks here.
Are you trying to tell me that Institutions trading Commodities, Equity Indices, Oil, Forex don't do any of the following:
Day Trade
Swing Trade
Use HFTs/Momentum Algos
Market Make

If so, you are out of your skull !
  • #309
  • May 7, 2020 11:32am May 7, 2020 11:32am
In addition to that, It is quite possible to take trades like the big Commercials on a Day Trade style but by scalping the entries taking 1/2 or 2/3rds off at smaller targets and setting the remainder to BE+1. You just have to keep working their entry levels- several times per day over perhaps 2 or more days until it yield the 'home run'.
  • #310
  • May 7, 2020 11:38am May 7, 2020 11:38am
My particular style is one I rarely show these days, since there was so little interest in it.
And that is 'Time of Day' trading. This encompasses:

Pre-News trades, News Announcement trades, Post- News Announcement trades.
Session Open trades ( Frankfurt, London and NewYork).
'Fix' trades - e.g. the London Morning and Afternoon Gold fixes.
Forex 'Fix time' trades.
EIA and API Oil Inventories trades ( a specialised form of News Trading).
Plus some other styles/markets
  • #311
  • May 7, 2020 11:53am May 7, 2020 11:53am
Quoting ianf0ster
I'm not talking about pension Funds and Individual stocks here. Are you trying to tell me that Institutions trading Commodities, Equity Indices, Oil, Forex don't do any of the following: Day Trade Swing Trade Use HFTs/Momentum Algos Market Make If so, you are out of your skull !
That is what I am talking about. They have millions and billions of dollars in their account and they open their positions on a long term bases. Meaning holding positions for weeks, months and years. You are selling something here, that most of the "mentors" sell online. You are not institutional and you never will be. You are a retail trader just like all of us. But you selling a course or advertising, you do have every right to do that of course. But all of that can be found online for free. It just depends how many sheep's will fall for your sale pitch and pay a lot of money for a course and charts that you can find all of it online for free. Mostly new traders will. Experienced one's will not. To sum it all up: Ian, you are not institutional trader, you never were and you never will be. You are a retail trader just like all of us here. The difference is you sale pitch the course education.
  • #312
  • May 7, 2020 2:07pm May 7, 2020 2:07pm
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} ..... You are selling something here, that most of the "mentors" sell online. You are not institutional and you never will be. You are a retail trader just like all of us. But you selling a course or advertising, you do have every right to do that of course. But all of that can be found online for free. It just depends how many sheep's will fall for your sale pitch and pay a lot of money for a course and charts that you can find all of it online for free. Mostly new traders will. Experienced one's will not. To sum it all up: Ian, you are...
Well, first I am NOT selling anything and secondly you can't find it all online. -Just show me where a real current top Institutional trader (not even a Quant Strategist and Trader) teaches how to trade like an institution using retail resources!
I gain absolutely no benefit from people taking either of the 2 courses (by different educational suppliers) that I recommend!
I am not an affiliate of any company and as you say I'm a retail trader who happens to be a student of the only current top level Quant Strategist/Trader educating retail traders while still currently working for a major institution (one of the big Japanese Banks. Prior to that he worked for Deutsche Bank in the same role, prior to that various British banks in similar roles.

What I gain from people taking the Sharp Edge course is that it encourages Ray to keep doing it. - He certainly doesn't do it for the money, in fact he is probably making a small loss after all his costs of technology to enable him to teach seamlessly whether at home or on the Bank's premises.

For people taking the other courses - from The MAX, I gain absolutely nothing except the satisfaction of helping steer people to a more suitable and proven course where Sharp Edge would be too much hard work for them.

So although I'm not an Institutional trader and never was one I do know how the top ones trade. Several of Ray's students were actual institutional traders (though not at the top levels) who quit so they could both have a life and trade their own money. Jay and Mike spring to mind, but there are more than those two.

Jay traded Bonds for Soc Gen I think - he certainly still has links to Soc Gen proprietary analysis. Mike traded (stocks amongst other things) for various small institutions both in Chicago and in London.

I recall that somebody challenged me about Mike before so I posted his CV in my main thread in response.
  • #313
  • May 7, 2020 2:50pm May 7, 2020 2:50pm
Quoting ianf0ster
{quote} Well, first I am NOT selling anything and secondly you can't find it all online. -Just show me where a real current top Institutional trader (not even a Quant Strategist and Trader) teaches how to trade like an institution using retail resources! I gain absolutely no benefit from people taking either of the 2 courses (by different educational suppliers) that I recommend! I am not an affiliate of any company and as you say I'm a retail trader who happens to be a student of the only current top level Quant Strategist/Trader educating retail...
It says you are a commercial member. So you are either affiliate or you are advertising something for someone for a profit.

You mention small institutions? What small institutions are you talking about?
  • #314
  • May 7, 2020 4:17pm May 7, 2020 4:17pm
No, people make assumptions like that, but being a commercial member just means that you plug one or more products/services which may detract from the income that FF earn from advertising the usual garbage education, brokers etc.

They decided i was 'commercial' not me. Given a choice m=nobody would be a 'commercial member' since then they can only send (or reply to ) 1 PM per day, and can't post in any non-commercial threads - even those that you started (if they haven't been re-classified as 'Commecial'.

What do I do that makes FF classify me as 'commercial'?
1. I plug Ray's Sharp Edge course. - Because i started as a student back in April 2014 and am still subscribing to him - there is so much to learn! It only took me 10 minutes of hearing Ray to know he was different, after 7 years of paying for garbage courses (some of which cost 5 times as much as Ray).
2. I plug The MAX courses (especially those taught by Eusebio - whom I call Mr Carlsberg after their old ads where they said 'Carlsberg, probably the best.....'. I have done one MAX course, but I realised that although it back-tested extremely well (> 75% win rate at Reward to risk of more than 1:1), but by then I needed to know WHY something worked - not just that it did work. So once i found Ray I never went live with my MAX training - even though it was head and shoulders above anything I had learnt before! Ray teaches the WHY - that is the great difference about him. -Unfortunately many of his students just want to know the 'HOW' - but in institutional trading it doesn't work like that!
3. I run a completely free support group for Students of Ray. all they need to have done is one of his full courses (not the mini-courses) i.e. Prop Time or Sharp Edge. I don't get paid for running the group, I just co-founded it because I feared that Ray wouldn't (be allowed to) continue teaching retail traders for long - so a lot of his teachings would be lost to ex-students. But who (apart from my >400 group members) would believe that I do it for free because I get satisfaction from helping fellow traders?

I do understand people may think that I might need to supplement my trading income, but that isn't the case. I trade because I am passionate about trading, I'm retired with 3 pensions so I don''t need any additional income and I would trade even if I made a small loss doing it (as a hobby). Fortunately I can make decent money trading, so its something I love doing which actually pays me to do it! Ray is in a similar position about teaching trading - he does it as a passion even if if=t makes no money or costs him a little. Employed as a Quant Strategist, he earns less than he would as a trader - but like teaching retail traders, he does it because he enjoys the challenge and is passionate about it. Once a 'well grounded person' earns several million per year, job satisfaction is more important than an extra million or so!

If you don't believe me there are several of my support group members and student of Ray here on FF: Copi88, Samidy, Hanover and others. In fact Samidy and Copi88 are very successful traders - much more so than I am since I spend so much time running the support group.
  • #315
  • May 7, 2020 8:13pm May 7, 2020 8:13pm
Quoting ianf0ster
No, people make assumptions like that, but being a commercial member just means that you plug one or more products/services which may detract from the income that FF earn from advertising the usual garbage education, brokers etc. They decided i was 'commercial' not me. Given a choice m=nobody would be a 'commercial member' since then they can only send (or reply to ) 1 PM per day, and can't post in any non-commercial threads - even those that you started (if they haven't been re-classified as 'Commecial'. What do I do that makes FF classify me as...
You can say whatever you want. I am not attacking you by the way, just writing here and sharing stuff like all of us. You are a commercial member, you are selling/advertising courses and you are definitely getting a % whenever the course is sold. Does it work or not? I am sure for some it works, for some it does not. It is not institutional trading that you are showing, it is retail trading just like all of us. You are not again, YOU ARE NOT institutional trader and any of your mentors. You are just really good at selling pitch of the course that you and your mentors or partners are offering. Those member of support groups are all your affiliates. You can sell that pitch to someone that has no experience, does not work with me and others here for sure. But whatever, you have a right to offer the courses just like others do.
Also when you mention this individual Ray, that someone of his students are or were actually institutional traders, thank you for the laugh. No institutional trader will go to some random person and take a course and trade with them. Institutional traders have university degree's in either economics, finance, computers and so on. They are thought at institutions like banks and financial institutions how to trade and invest long term. I just checked your education thread, you have charts trading from 5min to 1min like come on really.. If you are trading on 5min tf, you should be looking at 1hr tf chart. Looking at 1min and 5min won't make a big difference and won't help with nothing but like up to 5 pips. That is not institutional trading. Institutional traders look at hihger tf's like monthly, weekly, daily. They are looking at news and COT reports. They are combining all of that and adding positions. That's it.
  • #316
  • May 8, 2020 8:42am May 8, 2020 8:42am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} You can say whatever you want. I am not attacking you by the way, just writing here and sharing stuff like all of us. You are a commercial member, you are selling/advertising courses and you are definitely getting a % whenever the course is sold. Does it work or not? I am sure for some it works, for some it does not. It is not institutional trading that you are showing, it is retail trading just like all of us. You are not again, YOU ARE NOT institutional trader and any of your mentors. You are just really good at selling pitch of the course...
@Techanalyst,
You may say that you are not attacking me, but you are. You are trying to tarnish my good name.
I suspect that you are trying to provoke me into revealing proprietary information covered by the NDA I signed - sorry, but that isn't going to happen.
But I don't want you to put people off from checking out Sharp Edge and The MAX.

Unlike you, I have the a username which makes it completely obvious what my actual name is. It is the same username in all the forums I belong to, currently just T2W , here and 2 diabetes forums. There is somebody else in some other forums who uses the same username as me which causes me some grief since he is involved in ripping off courses such as the MAX.

I repeat that I'm not paid anything for helping new students decide to take either of the courses I mention. Nor am I paid for running the support group for Ray's students. I am not associated with either the MAX or with CompassFX.

I'm not good at selling anything, back when I was in the Computer industry I was picked to go on an anti-sales trip- to persuade a customer NOT to buy a piece of Kit (because it would have cost us more to maintain it than they would be paying in the contract).
Neither is Ray good at the marketing side of things because he has so little time between his work for the Bank -preparing their tactics for the trades they put on into the Close, then preparing what they will do into the Frankfurt Open and London Open, then the same for the New York Open. Then his ongoing education for us, live commentary from whenever he is free during the European morning, starting his customary session in the live Sharp Edge room by 8am Eastern time through to at least midday or 1pm Eastern time.

If he wasn't teaching from an institutional background, he could do much shorter courses or even the infamous .PDFs and make much more money from students with much less work. But no, he is a hard sell because he insists on providing all the knowledge he thinks is required - not just enough to make a profit. Hence the 4 and 5 week courses.

Unfortunately you are correct that ex-institutional traders are suspicious of education from somebody they don't know through their professional network. That is why he has only had a handful of ex-institutional traders as students.

You are wrong about institutional traders having degrees in finance or economics. The Quants and Analysts do have those or degrees in Maths (as I do), but such things are not used at all by the institutional traders. You have just been imagining what they do - they are just paid to trade, not to to Analysis or devise strategies etc. One of Ray's students (Nic L.) became an institutional trader for a Commodities trading Company- all Nic had to do was prove he could trade - he actually quit his university course in order to learn how to trade.

What makes you think that I don't look at the the economic reports, news and the COT, I also keep an eye on the reports from Fed Funds Watch and the DOTS Plots. I occasionally look at the bigger timeframe daily and weekly charts. How the heck do you imagine I manage to trade News reports and Oil inventories etc. without watching those?
I have said many times that I'm unable to show the proprietary things I have been taught that can't already be found elsewhere. So naturally I show 5 min charts, after all they are the timeframe most popular with people on ForexFactory.

And I already told you what is obvious to somebody past their first month of trading: That Institutions trade all the different Timeframes - depending upon the strategy they are using at the time!

It is impossible for me (or anybody) to prove that they don't get paid for something, however perhaps these screen shots ('paint -ed to protect other people's identities ) will go some way to show that I am who I claim to be.
Mike R. 's CV:
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Members of the support group I run:
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  • #317
  • Edited 11:35pm May 8, 2020 9:59am | Edited 11:35pm
Quoting ianf0ster
{quote} @Techanalyst, You may say that you are not attacking me, but you are. You are trying to tarnish my good name. I suspect that you are trying to provoke me into revealing proprietary information covered by the NDA I signed - sorry, but that isn't going to happen. But I don't want you to put people off from checking out Sharp Edge and The MAX. Unlike you, I have the a username which makes it completely obvious what my actual name is. It is the same username in all the forums I belong to, currently just T2W , here and 2 diabetes forums. There...
Not attacking you. Just sharing stuff here. It is not a problem. You and I will not agree on this. But i know what is going on, i stand by what i said. But everyone has their own belief and opinion. Trade safe.

Is this the website of your mentor/partner that you are talking about: https://compassfx.com/
  • #318
  • May 11, 2020 8:06am May 11, 2020 8:06am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Not attacking you. Just sharing stuff here. It is not a problem. You and I will not agree on this. But i know what is going on, i stand by what i said. But everyone has their own belief and opinion. Trade safe. Is this the website of your mentor/partner that you are talking about: https://compassfx.com/
Hello Techanalyst. I'm new on this forum and wanted to ask you some questions not related to this thread if that's ok, but I can't send pm.
I would be really happy if you could write me a pm or contact me somehow.

I'm really sorry guys for posting here offtopic and I will delete it after, if possible!
  • #319
  • May 11, 2020 10:21am May 11, 2020 10:21am
Quoting Anon789
{quote} Hello Techanalyst. I'm new on this forum and wanted to ask you some questions not related to this thread if that's ok, but I can't send pm. I would be really happy if you could write me a pm or contact me somehow. I'm really sorry guys for posting here offtopic and I will delete it after, if possible!
Come to eurusd thread you will see im there and ask anything you need.
  • #320
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:58am Jun 9, 2020 4:58am
Gold: June 09 review

Fundamental News:

Gold prices was traded down continue today due to hope of recovery in equity markets, after more than three months shutdown across the globe.

Gold futures, August contract traded $1716.00 range, up +0.64% at morning European hours. Investors sold hedge funds like Gold and Silver in last few days because of economy recovery hopes.

On the opposite side, By 1448 PM IST, US Dollar Index futures, June 20 contract traded $96.945 range, up +0.36%.

Traders will also keep an eye for this week's Fed fund rate decisions.

As on last Friday's surprising unemployment decision, also given some hopes of this Covid-19 situations will over soon.

Technical News:

Above $1716.00 range, we will expect $3-5 up trend. but near term R1 $1727.82 range(20 days SMA) and on the reverse side, prices below $1697.65(today's low) this level, wait near term support level which is $1680.70(weekly low) and but major support level is 1666.20(21 April's low).

For intraday and STBT strategy for Gold is given below:

Entry point - $1716.00 - $1718.90 range

and keep R1 $1727.82(20 days SMA)

and wait S1 $1697.65(today's low)
and wait S2 $1680.70(weekly low)
and wait S3 $1666.20(Major support level)

Near term/STBT review - Down trend in Gold.

Disclaimer-Trading in gold and silver markets are subject to market risks. We doesn’t bear any responsibility for any trading losses.
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