38 days in, results seem promising thus far.
Random entries and deliberate exits. How far will this go?
Random entries and deliberate exits. How far will this go?
Is random really random? 231 replies
Coin tossing and random entries 44 replies
Pure Risk to reward trade System - 1 to 3- Totally random entries 178 replies
Expert Advisor with random entries 3 replies
Random entries discussion... 7 replies
Disliked38 days in, results seem promising thus far. Random entries and deliberate exits. How far will this go?Ignored
Disliked{quote} Rennaissance, That's the conclusion that I've come to as well by way of extensive backtesting (see my previous post on backtesting random entries with specific exit strategies).... but the arguments - and copious amounts of DATA - presented by 60minuteman (Thread: "Systematic Trend Trading", and Copernicus (Threads: "Diversified Trend Trading Approach", and "Systematic Trend Trading"), and many others, also supports the idea that asymmetrical risk:reward trading (i.e. trend trading) has long-term profitability- especially when compounded....Ignored
Disliked{quote} I have dabbled with alot with trend following approaches, my advice to anyone is to stay away from it. It loses money 80% of the times. I have sort of gone towards pattern recognition. I look for situations that have a bias of atleast 60%. That's what I will recommend, trend following is not a good approach in today's market. Why? Because everyone is trying to do it.cheersIgnored
Disliked....The natural next step was to refine the entry criteria (which I did), and that brings phase 2 of the experiment, which I started in Jan this year. Let's see how this plays out.. {Ignored
DislikedHi all, Before you go on, let's keep an open mind. Here's a thought experiment. We like to talk about how edges decay over time (some swear by an average of 3 years before the efficacy of a strategy falls). What if all trades were entered at random and all you could control is the exit strategy? A system based in random entries has to no edge to speak of, so by that logic, there is no edge to decay. But how would you trade it? I've been dabbling with this wild thought for a while now and wanted to see if there is a like-minded individual who wants...Ignored
Disliked{quote} How did phase2 work out? Were you able to overcome the DD? Yes, a quadratic upside and quadratic downside... let profits run if you're going to let the losses run... e.g., open random trades of a Buy basket and random trades of a Sell basket (opposing trades relative to the buy basket) of (+) and (-) correlated pairs, and for each basket, keep the trades open until the profit target for the basket is achieved and then close the profitable basket down (keep the non-profitable basket open). For the Buy basket, and for each pair in the basket,...Ignored
Disliked{quote} In phase 2, the DD levels were the same. The only way to reduce it is to introduce a more accurate entry method other than random. But the position mgt bit worked as it should.Ignored
Disliked{quote} No significant difference over time it seems. U tried and had any luck?Ignored
Disliked{quote} Early stages of live testing...it does take patience, but maybe the lack of patience is why so many trader's lose? We shall see... Carddard, Not quite sure what you mean by "no significant difference over time?"Ignored
Disliked{quote} What criteria do you use to assess if price is "moving in the same direction as the original trade"? I'm assuming it's adding onto losing positions only?Ignored
Disliked{quote} Not necessarily… I only add trades if price is moving in the direction of the original trade. So for instance, if I buy pair xxxyyy @ 1.09567, my next buy trade will be opened at 1.10567 (100 pip differential) and every 100 pips upwards thereafter. If price drops below my entry < 100 pips, I do nothing. However, if price drops to 1.08567 (-100 pips) and then moves up to 1.09567, I open another buy trade and will continue to open buy trades every 100 pips of upward movement. If the market continues to move down, I’m buying the rallies as...Ignored
I hope this helps you out if you ever stumble upon this thread.
Good luck guys.