Trading Journal (only my take)

EJ nearly gtg (good to go)

Forums are filled with thousands of people thinking that they can use an indicator or candle or whatever to take a trade. Obviously 99.9% fail to find any consistency. That should tell you something.

All of these do not understand what constitutes a real market direction. Sometimes they get lucky when their indicator coincides with the real direction and that is all. Most of the time they are wrong.

No one has learnt to recognise the differences because of the overwhelming amount of these indicators, candles and such like, which has done nothing more than add chaotic confusion into most peoples minds.

Some will relate to that probably, and yet continue to do nothing to overcome that major fault.

Get back to basics is my advice. Understand the market position, not an indicator or candles position. Should you then be long or short, it is a vital decision, where probability is now in your favour, although not guaranteed, but sufficiently favourable to genuinely be called a trading edge, which is what every trader strives for of course.

A sad fact is that there's plenty of hindsight traders as usual. People saying what they did and how they made a profit, but scared of showing anything in real time. Let's be honest, any muppet can say they won and if they really feel that inclined to brag about it, then prove themselves properly by presenting their charts in real time with their entry for all to see....otherwise just shut up...it's as simple as that!

EU nearly gtg

Whilst it is true (imo) that anyone from any walk of life who has an average level of intelligence could be a successful trader in a relatively short period of time, it is obviously also true that very very few actually do achieve any kind of meaningful and successful returns on their investment.

A person can be taught from a mentor, but of course that mentor has to properly know what they're doing themselves and why it is successful enough to be prepared to impart that knowledge on to another person if so inclined.

This leads into a number of other territories, but for now let's suppose someone is sufficiently hooked and decides to embark on a journey with the mentor. Does this mean that the student will automatically therefore also become an awesome trader in very little time?

In theory yes, but from experience I can tell anyone viewing that 40% do well and are profitable traders within months.

The rest, even though they have been given all the necessary advice along with examples, will still struggle to stay afloat, and remember, they are all of a similar level of intelligence

The 2 biggest reasons that I have found concerning their struggles, are failure to listen and insufficient patience.

So, the moral of this true story is that no matter what an averagely intelligent individual has been shown, that teaching can only go so far, and that the individual character of people plays a huge part regardless of what they've been shown first hand that works.

There are countless threads all over the place, and maybe it's partly due to that massive number why so few here and elsewhere seemingly struggle to grasp trading in an effective and profitable manner on a consistent enough basis to make a living from it!.

I have seen only a tiny handful of traders, perhaps 3, maybe 4 that appear to be quite successful and interestingly. none are red flag holders as I recall. Two of those have vanished, and one still posts I believe.

Their approaches were fairly straightforward, although it could and should have been even simpler imo, because like practically the whole world, their methods required candles, or to be more precise, they thought it did.

One day people will wake up and realise that keeping things as simple as possible and removing every piece of junk on their charts, leaving only what is absolutely necessary is the way to go. We see so many lines, indis, colours bla di bla di bla, it's no wonder everyone is as confused as hell, save just one or two, and that falls right into the hands of mms and brokers

No doubt tomorrow we will see another influx of this mad professor disease conjuring up yet another bunch of indicator ideas that for one reason or another seem to grab peoples attention. People just dont't learn lol.

More hindsight gurus in these journals today I see lol....I won't mention name(s)

Telling everyone how they won....afterwards....wow....brilliant.

Do the same, 10 trades in a row, but this time live and with a chart showing entries etc and I guarantee that results will be no better than 30%-40%.

For crying out loud, get a life and stop talking bs after the event....only the gullibles fall for that!

There are thousands of people out there all dreaming of making it big in trading. Of course no one makes it in reality.

The majority are demo guys, and a few will trade small fry lots. Those are the cold facts.

Any trader, aspiring or not, needs 2 things....belief and trust. Both should be bourn out of evidence.

It's interesting to see that so many would rather believe and trust a complete stranger that they've never met, instead of trusting themselves!

It seems to come down to who can shout the loudest and the most often ….yes, brainwashing.

Some of the systems might well have a small degree of merit....I won't dispute that, but then so do others, and this forum then ends up with a cocktail of methods from all and sundry, often ending with the same trade conclusion in any case.

Some of these methods range in complexity (unnecessarily imo). Either way, there are probably hundreds of people trying to promote their own method for whatever reason!

I don't advise that, and that brings us back to belief and trust.....or is it that people simply need a shepherd instead who they somehow have belief and trust in.....well, we all know where the sheep end up!!

EC nearly gtg

Everything that we know, including our instincts, has obviously been accumulated, honed and developed over thousands of years of human knowledge and natural evolution.

Armed with all of that, gives a sentient specie such as our own the capability of making judgements.

We all use our judgement to make decisions and predictions in all that we do in our lives, ie…. I'd better buy a coat cos I know its December and it gets colder this time of year here in the UK etc. In other words, I make a decision based upon what I know has happened before and I can therefore predict that it will happen again.

Trading works in exactly the same way of course.....we need historical information so that we are sufficiently informed what the market price levels have previously proved itself capable of, and from which enables a prediction to be made of what can happen next.

For practical trading reasons, those proven market levels are useful to predict roughly where and roughly when a trade can be taken, depending on the timeframe applied, which will then naturally have corresponding and realistic stops and targets.

All the above, is generally the premise of my own approach, whereby I am predicting what will happen in the future.....which is of course precisely what every other trader does...predict!

So many talking utter rubbish as normal, trying to convince themselves and others of a way to succeed in trading.

Pretty much all of them haven't a clue what constitutes a real trading opportunity. They get lucky occasionally, and then say their indicator or whatever crap they're using works....which makes it even more of a joke!

They just don't understand the real ingredients to have a fighting chance to get the market direction right, because they haven't thought it through at all.

Just because a thread is numerically popular, doesn't mean at all that the approach is in any way correct.....usually far from it!

Individual success is all that really matters to a serious trader.....and it doesn't matter what anyone else is doing whatsoever. If a trader can get their head around that simple fact, and then develop their own trading approach to incorporate only the important elements needed to make a valid trading decision, then they should end up with a very simple looking chart that can be easily used to detect opportunities to enter into a trade.

Obviously the trader needs trust and faith in that kind of approach, and that will require patience in order to believe in what they're doing is the right way to go.

Only recently for instance, a couple of weeks back actually, , I saw someone quietly place a few trades. It was a reasonably simple chart with candles, and the entries made would have been quite similar to my own, which lead me to think that this guy appears to have a pretty good idea of what he needed to see, without all the fuss and paraphernalia, and I'll keep an eye out to see how consistent his approach is in terms of relative simplicity and entry.

As for the majority, irrespective of high or low status etc etc, they generally have it wrong in so many ways so far as I'm concerned, and that isn't going to change any time soon!

A new year is almost upon us, and time for everyone to reflect and consider the past years trading results, and to see whether there is room for improvement.

In my case, (bearing in mind, that I am an out and out swing trader using the daily t/f), I identified a few months back that this year was more difficult to hit expected targets than in previous years, even though my approach was consistently identical. I managed 22% profit versus 37% on average in the previous 3 years, which is ok but disappointingly lower than previously nevertheless.

Now this might be a freakish year, some funny stuff politically etc, it's difficult to know why, but results don't lie, and only time will tell, but I may be forced to drop down to H4 trading, which doesn't suit my life style in terms of monitoring, but results over the this year do suggest that I would have comfortably made my target had I done so.

In other words, this year did not have enough prolonged market movement in one direction or the other to fully capitalise on my approach using the Daily t/f, and therefore I'll be moving to H4 instead in the new year for a few months, at least until I see how the markets look to be moving. Fortunately, my approach doesn't need any particular t/f to identify an entry, but in the past, the daily has always given me more free time to do other things besides trading which was always the attraction for me!

So that's where I'm at with the trading, but regarding the claptrap on these threads, well I guess we all have to endure their crap. Take the guy who seems to be dominating a number of threads it seems at present, banging on about noise.

He reminds me of a bullfrog in a swamp trying to attract a mate or mates lol, croaking away all day long......quite ironic, and at the same time quite apt really when noise seems to be his theme, and where he's the one who's actually creating it! lol

Enough with my views for this year

The new season kicks off, and as mentioned before, I'll be looking to find my entries via the H4 t/f for the initial months ahead.

Everyone has their system and beliefs, and everyone has their motive for posting. In the main, posters just like to showcase themselves..... people can figure out for themselves why they feel that need to do so, mine is purely indulgence when I feel like doing so. I have found that it's futile to try to educate anyone on these sites, not least because what is gained in doing so.....nothing at all. So, it is as stated just an indulgence, nothing more nothing less for any anonymous eyes that choose to tune in.

I'll start this year with a pending set of short orders which may or not triggers on EU, and where the chart clearly shows annotated entries and targets. I am not interested in TEs at all, whether they be real or phoney, they show absolutely nothing and are only a vehicle for braggarts to show off.

Many go on about TEs, but they teach nothing from a charting perspective, not that I'm interested in teaching here personally, but others claim that that is their intention and end up posting ridiculous TEs but no charts.....total nonsense and pretty obvious what their real objective is....yes to be the big I am.

Nothing changes, the same rubbish day in day out...repeating repeating repeating, and then a new batch of posters comes along and starts the whole process off all over again, as though they've just invented the wheel lol.

I'll post the EU chart now anyway, and take it from there.

I've just been reading a couple of posts from some guys journal. He talks a good story but that's about all.

He is a typical example of an amateur trader who looks like he is only a talkative paper trader judging by the fact that all his posted charts are in hindsight and there is no obvious signs to illustrate entries in real time, in addition, he uses 1 minute charts and takes entries against the apparent market direction.

It makes absolutely no sense and no wonder his alleged returns are tiny or negative.

Imo, he would immediately see improved results if he simply reversed his thinking, and I am amazed that this has not occurred to him.

These kind of people somehow manage to convince others of the validity of such flawed thinking......it is clearly a dangerous approach and I'd advise potential followers of such methods to stop and question before blindly following!

Back to EU....as previously shown.

Pending order P1 triggered into T1 and nicely hit TP1 for 30 odd, so a decent return for the start of the year.

P2 & P3 not triggered but remain for now.

All pretty clear clean and simplistic, and as the chart shows, market spaciality allows my trade planning without any need whatsoever for anything fancy, no candles, no oscillators, no axes info.

My way doesn't suit 99.9% and most will see my charts as nothing more than a leap of faith, which is actually true to some degree as is the case with any trade taken on by anyone, but the difference in my case is that my consistent positive results give me the constant positive belief that what I do is as good as anyone's out there, but without all the fuss lol.

Fortunately, I'm not here to teach and I simply indulge myself when I feel like it with my own unique and independent way of looking at everything. Running with the pack requires a pack leader, and it's clear that FF pack leaders are usually on the wrong scent for whatever their reason, and yet they still command packs! tallyho..... lol

Have I missed anything the last month....nope! The same insecure bunch all relentlessly touting their methods. What's the point.....well, none, other than bolstering their own insecurity by persistently posting their own approach.

Anyone with half a brain would know this is totally ridiculous. If someone has a decent method, why shout about it, just make money from it and keep quiet is the obvious thing to do because it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever to draw attention to yourself if it's that good...it's simply best to stay under the radar instead.

What can the averagely intelligent person glean from all of this.....well, stay clear of all those promoting their approach for starters, which includes all the so-called big guns, and all those novices new to trading who think they've just invented the wheel with their own amazing method lol....which they haven't of course.

Create an all-round method/approach, the easier the better, prove it by trial, it certainly doesn't need to be anyone else's because your own approach will be no worse than the next persons, then trade it, make money and keep quiet are my recommendations.

Much the same as before, muppets continue to post muppet rubbish. No one seems to realise that any approach can work so long as the individual sticks to it. There is no hard and fast way to trade, just develop your own rules, stick to a tf, stick to your rules, for example, my rules don't matter to anyone except me, and that's exactly how anyone should think imo.

There's hundreds of idiots out there constantly banging on how great they are, posting charts and trades that never lose and all that nonsense, all designed with just one thing in their tiny minds, and that is to say to any unwitting observer...hey look at me look at me look at me, aren't I great, please please please tell me I'm great. I'm sure that resonates with everyone on here....a complete joke!

The facts speak for themselves, and should prompt simple questions such as why would any muppet show their successful method? why would some muppet show a winning trade?

Obvious answers to obvious questions of course.....ie they don't trade real money, just muppet pretend money lol.

Some guy I saw recently has had a supposed string of wins....what does he do, yep tell everyone...look at me look at me look at me, am I great or what....please tell me I am.

It's totally childish, something that 5 year olds do, and yet all these apparently mature muppets feel compelled to do also!

Enough for now....but it's almost certain to be the same rubbish on FF next month....nothing changes.

It's been an interesting trading week for sure, some will have won, some will have lost, most will not really know why they have either won or lost though.

Timing a trade entry is probably the most important part to any analysis. The markets always do their best to encourage a trader to take an entry, but of course in well over 50% of cases the market ends up being the winner and the trader the loser.

I could go on and explain more, but there happens to be a thread out there currently that covers the basic principle of when to start looking for entries....which in short is once the markets have established some sort of direction for the week, which is more often than not Wednesday onwards.

It's a straightforward basic principle, and forms part of my own approach. There's none of the complicated, mathematical, geometric or oscillator crap involved that so many of the useless gurus insist upon, and I'm sure most know who they are, and there's certainly no need whatsoever for those numpties referred to in my previous post that feel the need for unbridled recognition and attention by saying look at me look at me look at me....please tell me I'm great, and there are a hell of a lot of them on ff that's for sure in every nook and cranny!

Most people who want to try to make it as trader need to get back to basics. Basics means a few things of course, and it's easier to say what basics doesn't mean, ie silly oscillators, listening to others, wasting time, stupid time frames, unrealistic lots, stops, targets.....and more.

A person that can do the things mentioned has a head start on the rest. From there the trader can then clearly start figuring out what aspects would constitute a fair entry. Obviously price level is a given because prices are actually the common denominator that links everything together. Price alone however is insufficient. Other factors are required before taking an entry. Once a trader has built a few factors into their approach (I happen to have a few which are straightforward and obvious to me and I need at least 3 to be satisfied before I'm interested in an trade).

This all means that I rely solely on my own individual analysis.....no one else influences my decision whatsoever.

Others I've helped and trained (close friends and family) fully understand this and have or continue to develop their confidence to trust themselves. I've said in the past, that anyone from any background can become a successful trader, and the only thing that stops them is their confusion and hence lack of confidence.

Getting that sorted out in someone's head is the real challenge and then it's just a matter of reaping the rewards thereafter.

So, the message is simple, do your homework, dump rubbish, learn for yourself!

These incredibly volatile times that we are all seeing in the markets are a goldmine for brokers of course. And this is particularly true for those traders that operate off of small t/fs, winning one, losing 2,3 or more etc.

A genuine trader needs various qualities to succeed including commitment, belief and patience to mention just 3.

Every trader, no matter whether long or short term however are nothing more than predictors..... including myself. Many, in fact most, use indicators which as I've said often is just simply wrong.....indicators tell you only what has happened in the past, but traders should only ever be concerned with what is likely to occur in the future!

This is where certain qualities are required, 3 of which I've mentioned above.

Lets take a look at EU as an example.

We know price is clearly going down, the daily chart easily shows that and we could reasonably predict that it could continue to do so.....or is it near exhaustion? That is what enters a traders head, and without anything to guide them, other than silly indicators, they then become plan-less.

The very basic EU chart shown is what or rather when something will happen according to my projection to make me start looking for buying opportunities at the vertical line and not before! It may take longer, but that is the very earliest I will enter this particular market.

What happens between now and then is completely irrelevant to my projection.....I have my plan and will execute accordingly

So, this message is pretty obvious and based upon the premise that we are all predictors, but that higher t/f projections, in my view, are more reliable than lower t/fs.