4&1 All Time Profit:
$37,496
XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread
- #52,701
- Sep 13, 2019 10:23am Sep 13, 2019 10:23am
- Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Full Time Trader. | 5,429 Posts
- #52,702
- Sep 13, 2019 11:12am Sep 13, 2019 11:12am
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 4,065 Posts
ST&MT view on Gold!
We got yesterday a huge bazooka from ECB that will have an impact on Gold in ST&MT; Europe entering in recession which should send Gold up. However in ST, with ECB providing free money with QE, Gold is on hold waiting for FED and Equities instead are flying taking advantage of free money.
Next week, we have FED. FED is assuming high pressure from DT to cut rates (up to ZERO!!!), but Fundamental data is not supporting any cut for ST.
With a cut and dovish speech (for further cuts), market will see the worldwide recession which sends a screaming alert to move money from Equities and Bonds (very low and negative rates) to fuel Gold.
In this scenario, both ECB and FED will send Gold to the highest level of Sept. 2011 (+/-1820).
In a case FED does not cut, the above scenario is just postponed to Dec. and Gold will finish its retrace wave up to +/-1440, then the last MT wave up to +/-1820.
In one word, market is judging the end of the current economic cycle to jump in Gold. GL!
We got yesterday a huge bazooka from ECB that will have an impact on Gold in ST&MT; Europe entering in recession which should send Gold up. However in ST, with ECB providing free money with QE, Gold is on hold waiting for FED and Equities instead are flying taking advantage of free money.
Next week, we have FED. FED is assuming high pressure from DT to cut rates (up to ZERO!!!), but Fundamental data is not supporting any cut for ST.
With a cut and dovish speech (for further cuts), market will see the worldwide recession which sends a screaming alert to move money from Equities and Bonds (very low and negative rates) to fuel Gold.
In this scenario, both ECB and FED will send Gold to the highest level of Sept. 2011 (+/-1820).
In a case FED does not cut, the above scenario is just postponed to Dec. and Gold will finish its retrace wave up to +/-1440, then the last MT wave up to +/-1820.
In one word, market is judging the end of the current economic cycle to jump in Gold. GL!
- #52,703
- Sep 13, 2019 5:29pm Sep 13, 2019 5:29pm
- Joined Sep 2017 | Status: Still a total mystery | 3,569 Posts
Will wait for USD to possible loose a little tomorrow, after red.. so that eurusd "recovers" to more stable trajectory (which is only about 30pips away).. from which it would be much harder to de-rail by some tweet etc.... If it doesn't rebound, it would be much easier.... So just passing this week... so only Friday (the 13th left.. to hopefully resume the (more consistent) trend...
Can you afford to take that chance?
Currently I'm thinking gold corrects down to the 1,380 - 1,450 support zone as shown below:
Gold (and bonds) had a great run and were overextended. Last week we had positive US-China trade developments along with some good data (ADP, ISM). All things considered, the economic landscape looks a little better now so the Fed may not have to cut as much. That narrative is what sent safe haven trades like gold and bonds lower and since the positioning was extreme its taking some time for the safe haven trade to unwind.
Right now traders are more optimistic about economic growth, but that can change fast. I think this correction will run its course in another week or two and the uptrend will resume.
Gold (and bonds) had a great run and were overextended. Last week we had positive US-China trade developments along with some good data (ADP, ISM). All things considered, the economic landscape looks a little better now so the Fed may not have to cut as much. That narrative is what sent safe haven trades like gold and bonds lower and since the positioning was extreme its taking some time for the safe haven trade to unwind.
Right now traders are more optimistic about economic growth, but that can change fast. I think this correction will run its course in another week or two and the uptrend will resume.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
{quote} It's due but it may take 2 to 3 months. What do you anticipate?
Perhaps the answer is we go rangebound for awhile. That would satisfy both; a near-term target in the lower 1,400 range then gold goes into a range that lasts until later this year when the macro picture could deteriorate further... I’ll have to think more on this.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
- #52,707
- Sep 13, 2019 11:26pm Sep 13, 2019 11:26pm
- Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Full Time Trader. | 5,429 Posts
{quote} Judging by the chart it feels like this correction should run its course in the next few weeks. 2-3 months, as you suggested, would actually align better with my macro outlook...
Intra day wise, the daily and weekly close above the 1485 still gives credence to handle as key support.
barring any tweets etc, lets see how the week opens ups
4&1 All Time Profit:
$37,496
- #52,708
- Sep 14, 2019 2:34am Sep 14, 2019 2:34am
- Joined Nov 2018 | Status: Trader | 4,643 Posts
Price broke 1500 and sold off on retest looks 
ish
ish
ex nihilo
- #52,709
- Sep 14, 2019 7:21am Sep 14, 2019 7:21am
- Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,931 Posts
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
- #52,710
- Sep 14, 2019 9:30am Sep 14, 2019 9:30am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,424 Posts
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
Will the attack on Saudi oil refineries impact gold prices at open?
If anything this understates the coming move in gold. Higher oil isn't uniformly bad for US equities given the windfall this could mean for the shale industry.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
- #52,714
- Sep 14, 2019 11:52pm Sep 14, 2019 11:52pm
- Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Full Time Trader. | 5,429 Posts
4&1 All Time Profit:
$37,496
- #52,715
- Sep 14, 2019 11:54pm Sep 14, 2019 11:54pm
- Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Full Time Trader. | 5,429 Posts
4&1 All Time Profit:
$37,496
- #52,716
- Sep 15, 2019 1:13pm Sep 15, 2019 1:13pm
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 8,806 Posts
Here's a top-down technical perspective on XAUUSD.
On the daily time frame, last Thursday, price action printed a doji-like candlestick with a long upper wick, which indicated a strong bearish pressure. However, the bearish candlestick printed on Friday did not offer much confidence of a bearish follow-through. We may have to wait for the early part of this week to see how bears respond.
Technicals on the H4 time frame give a slight edge to bears and we may see them attempt a follow-through of the bearish disposition of last week Thursday and Friday.
I am bearish XAUUSD.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
On the daily time frame, last Thursday, price action printed a doji-like candlestick with a long upper wick, which indicated a strong bearish pressure. However, the bearish candlestick printed on Friday did not offer much confidence of a bearish follow-through. We may have to wait for the early part of this week to see how bears respond.
Technicals on the H4 time frame give a slight edge to bears and we may see them attempt a follow-through of the bearish disposition of last week Thursday and Friday.
I am bearish XAUUSD.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- #52,717
- Sep 15, 2019 2:02pm Sep 15, 2019 2:02pm
- Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Full Time Trader. | 5,429 Posts
4&1 All Time Profit:
$37,496
- #52,719
- Edited 7:37pm Sep 15, 2019 6:54pm | Edited 7:37pm
- Joined May 2017 | Status: Intermediate Trader | 6,436 Posts
Extreme gut feeling trader
- #52,720
- Sep 15, 2019 9:15pm Sep 15, 2019 9:15pm
- Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Full Time Trader. | 5,429 Posts
4&1 All Time Profit:
$37,496