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Swing Trades DAX/DOW/NQ/GOLD

  • #3,821
  • Sep 10, 2019 2:56am Sep 10, 2019 2:56am
US & EU markets have different agenda's. Central banks QE and roll overs

EU markets could go up and US markets could drop or vise versa.

I trade/judge every market on what I see on my charts.
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,822
  • Sep 10, 2019 3:16am Sep 10, 2019 3:16am
Markets hesitate to drop to -0.5%. Still in a Bullish flow
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,823
  • Sep 10, 2019 4:46am Sep 10, 2019 4:46am
Can anyone explain to me why volatility has completely dried up on the DAX the past few weeks?
As far as I can tell, it's not holiday season, so what's the deal....?

Cheers
  • #3,824
  • Edited 5:13am Sep 10, 2019 4:59am | Edited 5:13am
Quoting Bud Fox
Can anyone explain to me why volatility has completely dried up on the DAX the past few weeks? As far as I can tell, it's not holiday season, so what's the deal....? Cheers
Hi

As I wrote already: the DAX is waiting for the ECB on Thursday. Rate decision and QE Yes/No.

Also the rollover to the new contract somewere next Week. That all keeps traders on the sideline. Including me.

The DAX made a nice rally/up move started Aug 28/29 and now last few Days they scratch there heads and wait for further develoments/news.

There is no single reason to keep going up in the DAX. Bad numbers in Germany/Econ slowing down, so the only reason the DAX went up last few Weeks is the hope for (new) helicopter money. Not because of the good German data
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,825
  • Sep 10, 2019 5:46am Sep 10, 2019 5:46am
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
{quote} Hi As I wrote already: the DAX is waiting for the ECB on Thursday. Rate decision and QE Yes/No. Also the rollover to the new contract somewere next Week. That all keeps traders on the sideline. Including me. The DAX made a nice rally/up move started Aug 28/29 and now last few Days they scratch there heads and wait for further develoments/news. There is no single reason to keep going up in the DAX. Bad numbers in Germany/Econ slowing down, so the only reason the DAX went up last few Weeks is the hope for (new) helicopter money. Not...
Good to know, much appreciated. Sorry, I only just found this DAX thread and hadn't read thru.
I scalp the DAX so I'm generally quite ignorant of fundamentals and larger tf issues.
Does the market always slow at contract rollover like this, as I hadn't noticed it before? (3rd Friday of the month isn't it?)
Also, since I've been back trading the DAX again, I've noticed that it doesn't seem to move much at all on news - certainly far less than it used to a few years ago. As a scalper this suits me fine, but any reason for this? Are there any specific news events other than ECB rate decisions that actually move the index significantly?
  • #3,826
  • Sep 10, 2019 5:58am Sep 10, 2019 5:58am
Quoting Bud Fox
{quote} Good to know, much appreciated. Sorry, I only just found this DAX thread and hadn't read thru. I scalp the DAX so I'm generally quite ignorant of fundamentals and larger tf issues. Does the market always slow at contract rollover like this, as I hadn't noticed it before? (3rd Friday of the month isn't it?) Also, since I've been back trading the DAX again, I've noticed that it doesn't seem to move much at all on news - certainly far less than it used to a few years ago. As a scalper this suits me fine, but any reason for this? Are there any...
(3rd Friday of the month isn't it?) Yes correct

it doesn't seem to move much at all on news -certainly far less than it used to a few years ago. Yes correct

Are there any specific news events?. IFO & ZEW (next Week) it often reacts (a little) and ECB as you said already.
ECB expectations is now the main driver of the DAX

On IG I trade CFDs. German 30 CASH CFDs. No Futures on IG.
For Swing trades only/mainly. No scalp trades anyway.
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,827
  • Edited 6:43am Sep 10, 2019 6:06am | Edited 6:43am
DAX Long @ 223
T1 +11p 2 lot
2 runners
T2 +35/36p
1 runner left
+30p locked in
FLAT +30p last lot

Trgts:
250/+0.25% HIT
280/+0.50%
300/+1.0% from Friday close
Attached Image
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,828
  • Sep 10, 2019 6:14am Sep 10, 2019 6:14am
China will win the trade war and wean off American technology in 7 years, strategist says

 

  1. “China will never trust the United States again (and vise versa), and it will achieve its technology independence within seven years,” he told CNBC’s Squawk Box.
  2. Chinese tech firms have traditionally been reliant on American suppliers for semiconductors, modems and jet engines. But recent developments in the trade war have called this relationship into question.

For instance, it is developing its own chip industry. Under the government-led Made in China 2025 initiative, the country aims to produce 40% of its semiconductors by 2020, and 70% by 2025.

“China will never trust the United States again, and it will achieve its technology independence within seven years,” David Roche, Independent Strategy’s president and global strategist, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

China has traditionally been reliant on U.S. suppliers for key tech components such as chips and software, as well as modems and jet engines, but recent developments in the two countries’ protracted trade war have strained those ties and affected businesses from both sides.

“It is a conflict between a rising global power and a declining global power ... It’s not just about trade. It’s about technology, it’s about the free flow of ideas, it is rapidly becoming about the free flow of individuals,” Roche said.
“So it’s a really wide conflict, and it’s simply not gonna go away,” he concluded.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/10/chin...trategist.html

It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,829
  • Edited 6:38am Sep 10, 2019 6:25am | Edited 6:38am
DAX tries to reach that Monthly Res. level @ 375<>400
Its hopefull for ECB stimulus.

DOW is already on its Monthly Res. level. Hit already and couldn't break it. Maybe they will try again.
And I still see (little) divergence on the (non reliable) CCI and Stochs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Knipsel.JPG Size: 112 KB
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,830
  • Sep 10, 2019 6:28am Sep 10, 2019 6:28am
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
{quote} On IG I trade CFDs. German 30 CASH CFDs. No Futures on IG. For Swing trades only/mainly. No scalp trades anyway.
Any reason you use Ninja and not PRT?
Btw did we ever find out what caused the IG blackout last week?
  • #3,831
  • Sep 10, 2019 6:29am Sep 10, 2019 6:29am
Quoting Bud Fox
{quote} Good to know, much appreciated. Sorry, I only just found this DAX thread and hadn't read thru. I scalp the DAX so I'm generally quite ignorant of fundamentals and larger tf issues. Does the market always slow at contract rollover like this, as I hadn't noticed it before? (3rd Friday of the month isn't it?) Also, since I've been back trading the DAX again, I've noticed that it doesn't seem to move much at all on news - certainly far less than it used to a few years ago. As a scalper this suits me fine, but any reason for this? Are there any...
Last ECB meeting, on 25th july, DAX and DAX Futures had more 300 pips range in less than 2 hours, but in the past you can check several ECB Meetings where we saw 4/5% day range or even 7% on that day ( march 2016)...I guess is it enough to destroy or to explode any trader account!
Pure dynamite......
Regards from Brixen, the survivor......
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #3,832
  • Sep 10, 2019 6:36am Sep 10, 2019 6:36am
Quoting Bud Fox
{quote} Any reason you use Ninja and not PRT? Btw did we ever find out what caused the IG blackout last week?

I use Ninja for at least 6/7 Years now. Made nice software for N8 which I don't want to make on PRT.

Last time I checked PRT there were no good RENKO charts.
Only advantage CFDs is hedging option and no roll over

Blackout no idea. Happens to me as well sometimes without a reason.
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,833
  • Sep 10, 2019 6:46am Sep 10, 2019 6:46am
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
{quote} I use Ninja for at least 6/7 Years now. Made nice software for N8 which I don't want to make on PRT. Last time I checked there were no good RENKO charts on PRT. Blackout no idea. Happens to me as well sometimes without a reason.
Fair enough with the charts, don't blame you. PRT is nice though, very slick, but yes I have noticed their renko can be a little buggy/limited.
Was the first time I've experienced an IG blackout, everything just dead for like 45mins. I'm sure they're still cleaning up the mess lol.
Do you have anywhere outside of this thread that details your trading style, successes, etc?
  • #3,834
  • Sep 10, 2019 6:48am Sep 10, 2019 6:48am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} Last ECB meeting, on 25th july, DAX and DAX Futures had more 300 pips range in less than 2 hours, but in the past you can check several ECB Meetings where we saw 4/5% day range or even 7% on that day ( march 2016)...I guess is it enough to destroy or to explode any trader account! Pure dynamite...... Regards from Brixen, the survivor......
Wow, ok thx. Rings a bell now u mention it. I tend to sit out the high impact news and am generally done trading for the day before lunch, so prob why I'm kinda oblivious to it
  • #3,835
  • Sep 10, 2019 7:01am Sep 10, 2019 7:01am
Quoting Bud Fox
{quote} Fair enough with the charts, don't blame you. PRT is nice though, very slick, but yes I have noticed their renko can be a little buggy/limited. Was the first time I've experienced an IG blackout, everything just dead for like 45mins. I'm sure they're still cleaning up the mess lol. Do you have anywhere outside of this thread that details your trading style, successes, etc?
Page 1 containes the most of my strategy. Scalp & Swing trades

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=819560
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,836
  • Sep 10, 2019 7:02am Sep 10, 2019 7:02am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} Last ECB meeting, on 25th july, DAX and DAX Futures had more 300 pips range in less than 2 hours, but in the past you can check several ECB Meetings where we saw 4/5% day range or even 7% on that day ( march 2016)...I guess is it enough to destroy or to explode any trader account! Pure dynamite...... Regards from Brixen, the survivor......
Yes, it was thursday 10 march 2016 ECB meeting, a 6% day range.....and the free fall started after few minutes Draghi press conference, as it happened on july 2019.
Then they recovered all losses in a couple of days, wild horse is terrible!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10mar2016.png Size: 24 KB
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #3,837
  • Sep 10, 2019 8:34am Sep 10, 2019 8:34am
DOW SH 794 (counter trade)

T1 +11p 2 lot
2 running
T2 +30/32p 1 lot
1 runner
+20p locked in
FLAT +20p last lot

750 Supp.

Trgt 710 zone/-0.50%
Attached Image
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,838
  • Sep 10, 2019 8:47am Sep 10, 2019 8:47am
DOW Long @ 780
T1 +12p 2 lot
T2 +23p 1 lot
1 runner left
FLAT +12/13p last lot

ETH POC @ 815 Res level
Attached Image
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,839
  • Sep 10, 2019 8:51am Sep 10, 2019 8:51am
No DAX trades anymore Today

NQ @ -1.0% already. Often exagerates in %% wise moves

DOW @ -0.25@ zone. (GAP to close far below)

DAX +0.25%

Experation/ECB/FED/Trade war etc ect. US & EU have very different targets now
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,840
  • Sep 10, 2019 8:54am Sep 10, 2019 8:54am
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
DOW Long @ 780 T1 +12p 2 lot T2 +23p 1 lot 1 runner left FLAT +12/13p last lot ETH POC @ 815 Res level {image}
Hi DD, is the last YM long a bet on getting back to POC?
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