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Swing Trades DAX/DOW/NQ/GOLD

  • #3,421
  • Aug 26, 2019 8:57am Aug 26, 2019 8:57am
DOW price between Todays POC and Fridays POC 765<>840/ inside the Ichi cloud

I wait for a break out.
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,422
  • Aug 26, 2019 9:16am Aug 26, 2019 9:16am
Hi DD, Should we recalibrate the ichi and swing MAs settings once in a while as the market behaviour changes? What are some of the clues to recognize that the old settings must be modified?

Thanks DD
  • #3,423
  • Edited 9:35am Aug 26, 2019 9:25am | Edited 9:35am
DOW Long 880. Broke out the Ichi cloud & above +1.0% (@ 875)

See if the 26K/Friday TPO GAP is the taget

T1 +12p
T2 +20p
1 running/SL BE
FLAT BE last lot. No continuation of the little up move

+1.0% has to hold
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,424
  • Edited 10:09am Aug 26, 2019 9:46am | Edited 10:09am
Quoting shh
Hi DD, Should we recalibrate the ichi and swing MAs settings once in a while as the market behaviour changes? What are some of the clues to recognize that the old settings must be modified? Thanks DD
The only "calibration" I do is taikng care that all my Renko charts show more or less the same MA levels/Ichi levels.

The Ichimoku has a kind of default settin: 9 / 27 / 52. If I should use that setting on all my different Renko charts, I get very different levels/entry decision points. No way.
Same for my Swing T3 MA lines.

On the DOW my Swing T3 MA line shows approx. 25.600 now on the Renko 50 and Renko 100. So whatever chart I look at, my trade decision point is the same when the price should cross my Swing T3 MA line @ 600 on the Renko 50 or/and Renko 100.

Maybe a one or two times during the Week I adjust the T3 MA lines a little on one of the 2 Renko charts, in order to get the T3 levels on the same spot as good as possible.

I never adjust any MA line or Ichi setting to a "changing" market. The market has every Day an other face.
That is hind sight and you can not adjust your indicators on that behaviour.
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,425
  • Aug 26, 2019 9:49am Aug 26, 2019 9:49am
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
{quote} The only "calibration" I do is taikng care that all my Renko charts show more or less the same MA levels/Ichi levels. The Ichimoku has a kind of default settin: 9 / 27 / 52. If I should use that setting on all my different Renko charts, I get very different levels/entry decision points. No way. Same for my Swing T3 MA lines. On the DOW my Swing T3 MA line shows approx. 25.600 now on the Renko 50 and Renko 100. So whatever chart I look at, my trade decision point is the same when the price crosses my Swing T3 MA line @ 600. Maybe a one or...
Thank you DD, for sharing your insights. These stuff might sound trivial to you, but to some of us they are a wealth of knowledge man.

Cheers,
Sasha
  • #3,426
  • Edited 11:45am Aug 26, 2019 10:01am | Edited 11:45am
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
{quote} The only "calibration" I do is taikng care that all my Renko charts show more or less the same MA levels/Ichi levels. The Ichimoku has a kind of default settin: 9 / 27 / 52. If I should use that setting on all my different Renko charts, I get very different levels/entry decision points. No way. Same for my Swing T3 MA lines. On the DOW my Swing T3 MA line shows approx. 25.600 now on the Renko 50 and Renko 100. So whatever chart I look at, my trade decision point is the same when the price crosses my Swing T3 MA line @ 600. Maybe a one or...
See these "changing" markets in an other way.

Traders make the market change, because of news/Tweets/trade war or whatever.
Your charts only show to what extend traders changed the market. A swing to 1%? To 2% or 3%?

When there is no news at all, you will not see any change in the markets. Maybe 0.5% swing during the Day(s).
When a newsless Day lasts some Days, you see your MA lines flattening and the price remains inside the Ichi cloud.

Your MA lines/%% levels/MP levels telll the Daily/Weekly story and you may not change the settings at all.

A car maker builds a car for both slow traffic jams and for speed driving on the highway. He will not change or build an other kind of car just because there are more traffic jams these Days. Same with your charts.

Learn to recognize good Swing Days and sideways Days on your chart(s) by watching your indicators and adjust your trading to that. Never your chart(s)

Your question doesn't sound trivial to me. It's a very good question. It took me a lot of time to realize this as well and made me stop changing my chart settings every Day and concentrade on trading instead of concentrade on indicator settings.
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,427
  • Aug 26, 2019 10:28am Aug 26, 2019 10:28am
Hi Dutchy,

Which moving averages do you use in your charts?
Sorry if asked before.

Thx
  • #3,428
  • Aug 26, 2019 10:30am Aug 26, 2019 10:30am
Cramer warns investors that believing China over Trump on trade is dangerous and costly

Attached Image


That guy Kramer called me a "payama trader" a Week ago.
I guy who said something like that I will never trust.
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,429
  • Aug 26, 2019 10:39am Aug 26, 2019 10:39am
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
{quote} See these "changing" markets in an other way. Traders make the market change, because of news/Tweets/trade war or whatever. Your charts only show to what extend traders changed the market. A swing to 1%? To 2% or 3%? When there is no news at all, you will not see any change in the markets. Maybe 0.5% swing during the Day(s). When that news less Days lasts some Days, you see your MA lines flattening and the price remains inside the Ichi cloud. Your MA lines/%% levels/MP levels telll the Daily/Weekly story and you may not change the settings...
Thanks man, insightful, clear, and helpful as always. Your example, makes sense. I tried to somehow replicate our philosophy here for ES (S&P) and somehow I am not doing it right. I will spend more time on it and report back to you.
  • #3,430
  • Aug 26, 2019 11:29am Aug 26, 2019 11:29am
Quoting shh
{quote} Thanks man, insightful, clear, and helpful as always. Your example, makes sense. I tried to somehow replicate our philosophy here for ES (S&P) and somehow I am not doing it right. I will spend more time on it and report back to you.
If I may give you a piece of advice: follow an other market: DOW/RUSSEL/ maybe NQ
Swings in the ES/SnP are very small and much less "room" to make a mistake.
I find it a very difficult market to trade

1% ES/SnP = 28/29 points.
1% DOW = 250/260 points. Much better Swings and MA lines give a much better vieuw of what happens/happened
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ES Wk.png Size: 137 KB
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,431
  • Aug 26, 2019 11:46am Aug 26, 2019 11:46am
Quoting dr_j
Hi Dutchy, Which moving averages do you use in your charts? Sorry if asked before. Thx
Two T3 MA lines and the Ichimoku indicator

Ichimokou for scalping

T3 MA lines for Swing/trending trades trades

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=819560
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,432
  • Aug 26, 2019 12:03pm Aug 26, 2019 12:03pm
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
{quote} If I may give you a piece of advice: follow an other market: DOW/RUSSEL/ maybe NQ Swings in the ES/SnP are very small and much less "room" to make a mistake. I find it a very difficult market to trade 1% ES/SnP = 28/29 points. 1% DOW = 250/260 points. Much better Swings and MA lines give a much better vieuw of what happens/happened {image}
I had not thought about that aspect of S&P. Do you think it trends less, due to efficiency (more liquidity and volume in it)? Or it simply moves fewer pips because its valuation (3000) is smaller compared to DAX,NQ,DOW,CL,etc?
  • #3,433
  • Edited 10:21pm Aug 26, 2019 12:23pm | Edited 10:21pm
Quoting shh
{quote} I had not thought about that aspect of S&P. Do you think it trends less, due to efficiency (more liquidity and volume in it)? Or it simply moves fewer pips because its valuation (3000) is smaller compared to DAX,NQ,DOW,CL,etc?
Has to do with valuation. Indeed 1 % in the SnP is 30p only. The P/L value per poimt is higher, but the moves on the chart are much smaller in length.

More points in a 1% DOW move (250) is much easier to detect on the chart.
SnP and DOW make in general the same moves/trends

Nothing to do with liquidity or volume. SnP is trading the most contracts
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,434
  • Aug 26, 2019 10:36pm Aug 26, 2019 10:36pm
US President Trump, in yet another attempt to manipulate stock valuations, managed to single-handily engineer a major disruption to the 'risk-off' conditions that had engulfed the market since last Friday's ramp-up in the trade war escalation. Whether Trump hallucinated (manipulated) the market when saying China wants to return to the negotiating table after receiving a call or not, what's clear is that he still holds the power and has the ability to move the markets by acting as a circuit breaker.

V-shaped turnaround in sentiment: There has been an abrupt turnaround from 'risk-off' to 'risk-on' sentiment after US President Trump claimed that China trade representatives had reached out to return back to the negotiating table, adding quite explicitly that China has the intention of “wanting to make a deal”

China seeking a 'calm' approach: What’s factual and objective information is that a big shot in the trade negotiations as is China vice-premier Liu He said that China is willing to resolve the trade dispute with the US in a calm manner, adding that China opposes an escalation of the current trade war.

Trump's sensitivity to the stock market keeps growing: Make no mistake, US President Trump continues to accommodate a narrative based on the valuation of stocks. If he sees big down days in the market, he will not hesitate to do or say whatever it takes to re-invigorate the bullish sentiment.

Both Trump and Xi need their economies to keep growing, which means they need each other, but at the same time, they won’t allow any action to be seen as an admission of weakness that will make them lose face.

https://www.globalprime.com.au/marke...tm_campaign=de
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,435
  • Edited Aug 27, 2019 12:31am Aug 26, 2019 11:01pm | Edited Aug 27, 2019 12:31am
DAX on the edge of Bearish drop. Swing lines and Ichi meeting. Not good. No trend/edge, so patience

Scalping above/below the Ichi cloud

So far

(Scalp) Long above 680

(Swing) Short below 600 zone. Maybe a 600-0.50% pop first to the 650 again
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX .png Size: 59 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX W.png Size: 82 KB
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,436
  • Edited 12:51am Aug 27, 2019 12:24am | Edited 12:51am
DOW pulled back to Y RTH POC. See if that holds. In a sideway range now waiting for a new trigger.

On the Weekly Dev POC chart the price is between the W VWAP and W POC. Bad place to trade. Need a break out above/below that zone

Also still a TPO GAP to fill below to 25.650 zone
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM D.png Size: 57 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM W.png Size: 81 KB
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,437
  • Edited 12:55am Aug 27, 2019 12:39am | Edited 12:55am
DAX is waiting for an US/DOW pop/drop from its Y POC

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX D .png Size: 58 KB
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,438
  • Aug 27, 2019 12:40am Aug 27, 2019 12:40am
Wall Street sees elevated recession risk, market woes after US and China stoke trade fears

 

  1. Some Wall Street strategists are warning clients about elevated recession risks and market dangers after the U.S. and China escalated their trade war last week.
  2. Morgan Stanley says that the global economy would fall into recession if the U.S. raises tariffs on all imports from China to 25% and Beijing follows suit.
  3. “With talks between the US and China dominating market moves over the near term, investors should brace for higher volatility,” UBS cautions.



Trump’s focus needs to be on exports

  1. The U.S. fails to get deals to reduce its huge trade deficits during the G-7 meeting in France.
  2. Germany refuses to stimulate its economy — instead counting on exports into Trump’s election year, and monetary and fiscal stimulus.
  3. Exports would provide steady and long-lasting support to the U.S. economy.

It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,439
  • Aug 27, 2019 12:55am Aug 27, 2019 12:55am
DOW ticking up.

DAX Long @ 623
T1 +12p 2 lot
2 running
T2 +20p 1 lot
1 running/SL BE

FLAT BE last lot

Still in the Ichi cloud and below Y POC.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX D .png Size: 64 KB
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #3,440
  • Aug 27, 2019 1:08am Aug 27, 2019 1:08am
WIESBADEN - The German economy shrank in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter. That is confirmed by final figures from the German Federal Statistical Office. The Europe's largest economy is struggling with the impact of international trade conflicts and the slowdown of the world economy.
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
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