XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

#GOLD / H4 / Three Ideas

if I were a MM, I would do the 2 nd option - phsycologically it is more logical

Oh my my completely missed the rally..... But entered a long at 1443... i still believe 1450++ in couple of hourly candles...

Well I sure hope you had fun! Curious how you did? Also, did you let it ride for the rollercoaster today?

come on asians give me a quick spike to 1450.....

can not argue with a person that can not see two points of view however i will take your point and digest it for now sold gold on open

alls good mate i point some thing out now deleted the post , i am happy sold gold usa and gold aud done very nicely just got rid of them and i will re-enter after coffee

Looks like a great entry. I just entered short as well. I was actually already in a similar trade. I went short the yen within the past hour. So given their strong correlation this trade makes a lot of sense. Check out Gold/JY overlay on a 5M.

yep it might go up later but you have to get in and trade i have now 2 sells on gold if it goes up i will re-enter at some point it will do a spike down if it goes up bigboys like taking out stops so i have no stoploss

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

tped and did very very well , i have a other sell now

i found this and it explains a lot

Lol, so much drama here.....
Morning guys and gals.......
Fundies right around..... levels wise....its more advisable to stick to basics, and try and make sense of the storm....
Some calculations may give false readings due to irrate/wild movements post Trump tweet......enough said......

Looking at the following levels;

To the upside; last month's high becomes area of interest
Anything near that handle will be ripe for the picking to go lower.....

Key support at
1425
1429
1433

Resistance
1443
1449
1451.8

As such will look:
Pending buy order
1424.46
SL 1414
(in line with h1 and h4 setup, but due to aggressive swing position size needs to be considered carefully)

Pending sell order:
1450.4
SL 1462



Trade safe


More fundies today as such trade safe and positon size key

Gold consolidates Thursday's gains below $1440 ahead of US NFP data
2 August 2019, 13:43

 

1. US 10-year Treasury bond yield continues to push lower on Friday.
2. Nonfarm Payrolls in US is expected to rise 164K in July.
3. US Dollar Index posts modest losses, stays above 98.

The troy ounce of the precious metal gained more than $25 on Thursday after United States President Donald Trump announced 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese imports and triggered a flight-to-safety, helping traditional safe-havens find demand. With the trading action turning subdued ahead of the day's critical macroeconomic data releases from the US, the XAU/USD pair is staging a technical correction, losing 0.5% on the day at $1436.
However, the fact that the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is losing 3% following Thursday's drop of more than 5% suggests that the market sentiment is still sour, making it likely for gold to stay resilient against the dollar. Furthermore, major European equity indexes are staying deep in the negative territory to confirm the dismal mood.

Eyes on US jobs report
In the second half of the day, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its labour market report, which will include Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, and Labor Force Participation figures. The market consensus points to the NFP edging lower to 164,000 from 224,000 in June.

Previewing the data, "We expect job creation in the manufacturing sector to mean-revert after the five-month high 17k increase in June," said TD Securities analysts.

"We forecast employment in the services sector to moderate somewhat from its firm June print. All in, the household survey should show the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%, while we expect wages to rise 0.2% m/m, leaving the annual print unchanged at 3.1% in July.”

well about to NFP thoughts, and markets phsycology, its better to test 1452-60 and make a reverse

We have recieved mixed US data.

The unemployment rate raised marginally from 3.6% to 3.7%. While this might seem unimportant at fist glance, if we consider fed emphasized the strong labour market over and over again, we can see this as an issue.

I'd also like to mention that NFP came out within range of the consensus at 164k

The Average Hourly earnings rose 0.1%, beating estimates that they will stay the same, however if we would weight forecasts based on time (the later the forecast, the more relevant it is) then we would conclude that the average hourly earnings came in exactly as expected.

As i've already said, we've recieved mixed data, that could be considered slightly worse then expected.

NFP was also revised significantly lower.

I'd also like to remind you that the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment that will be released in a hour and a half might have impact on the market and give it a clearer direction.

Good luck everyone!

Guys why so quite?

I believe it might spike up at close, if SNP closes at bottom. Monday open as well will be awesome if SNP closes at bottom 5 points.

President Trump is currently speaking about trade with EU, this could have a significant impact on the markets.

You can watch the livestream here:

Calling it a day....
Happy weekend traders

ZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzZZZZZZZZZZZ

I'm sure he'll be back next week!

GOLD ENDS FRIDAY A SHAVE LOWER ON PROFIT TAKING, BUT BULLS EYE JULY HIGHS
2 August 2019, 23:26

 

1. Gold ends the Wall Street session with a slight pullback into the weekend.
2. Profit-taking and a slight bid back in the Dollar held up the bulls.

Gold was subject to the end of the week and Nonfarm Payroll induced profit taking with prices in the yellow metals falling around 0.30% into the close on Wall Street. Gold was trading, on a spot basis, at around $1,441 having travelled between a range of $1,430.45 and $1,449.30.

The yellow metal gave back some ground on Friday, but that is too be expected given the sheer amount of ground its covered since the trade tariff scare that sent prices around $45.00 higher on the day in the prior session. Gold can still attract a bid on risk-off concerns and taking a look around, if copper is anything to go by, encroaching on two-year lows as trade wars intensify, then precious metals can likely continue to draw in investment.
The Dollar plunged from close to the 99 figure highs all the way back to test the resilience of the 98 figure, scoring a low of 98.05. This also enabled gold's futures prices to settle at a more than a six-year high on Friday. December gold climbed $25.10, or 1.8%, to settle at $1,457.50 on Comex and was the highest close for a most traded contract since May 9, 2013.

Indeed, the signs of an intensifying trade war forced US yields and the greenback sharply lower as trader's called the Fed's bluff. Notwithstanding the Fed's messaging, expectations that rates are headed towards zero in the USA grew, with the market pricing in 50bp of rate cuts in 2019.

"While the move in rates appears reasonable, as Powell referenced trade uncertainty as a key driver of future rate cuts, gold could still have room to shine considering its convexity related to its zero-coupon nature and uber-long duration."

Nonfarm Payrolls were solid enough
Nonfarm payrolls matched expectations, coming in at 164k following last month's downwardly revised 193k print. However, they were solid enough and something for everything could be found in the details behind the inline headline.

"The 3-month and 6-month averages slowed to around 140k — still more than sufficient to absorb new entrants into the labor force, but well off the 240k pace in January. Private service sector jobs led the gains with a 133k increase, which were explained by notable increases in education (66k), finance (18k) and professional services (38k). Employment gains in the goods sector rose at half of last month's at 15k, with increases in the manufacturing sector (16k) partly offsetting weakness in construction jobs (4k). Despite ongoing woes in manufacturing sentiment indices and trade uncertainties, the manufacturing sector managed to register its strongest gain since January. Note, however, that the trend in manufacturing growth remains relatively soft amid global uncertainties,"
analysts at TD Securities explained.

Gold levels
Technically, Gold remains in bullish territories above the 20-day moving average and holds above the 78.60% retracement of the recent ranges as bulls look to the July swing highs of 1453.95. On a reversion, a 23.6% retracement to the 1435 level comes into play. 1421 marks the confluence of the 20, 50 and 200 daily moving averages.