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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #51,341
  • Edited 4:57pm Jul 23, 2019 4:19pm | Edited 4:57pm
Quoting auricforecas
I still bet, as quite some time, bet on the stronger USD by the day.. Some correlations, by the model of 10years... seem to STRONGLY indicate that.. Although I might admit the EXACT mechanism are not so clear... As this is how the (honest) statistics works... It just INDICATES... without REAL/proven explanation, just interpretation.... But, the fundamentals, how I understand them, speak in that favour... For example, PIGS are a disaster, do not be fooled by the glamour, they were just silenced, giving them food, backed by debt, to silence temp......
Ok so far it seems that way... The FED/ECB (ratio) seems to be somewhat established now (at least this is what the current perception is), priced-in therefore... Also some new EU development.. But ok, one of you mentioned the more "daily" trades... I still think/believes having some TREND insight, if correct, could be very beneficial, even for daytraders... unless they like it super-tight. .. But I do get the point...aka point taken... I have repeated my sentiment so many times.... not much to do anymore, because my position will hardly change before the (end of) OCT this year... But yeah, extraordinary events, decisions, tweets can always happen, but I wouldn't bet on it nor would I be manipulated by them, because one of the (biggest) beauties of the FX is that it is so big (trillions of volume... weekly at least)... that no matter what almost anyone does or doesn't... the market will go "its" way.. and ALL my "indicators" shows (slow -hopefully) rise of the USD.. till at least end of OCT... Ok so just to clear that one Gold is a little trickier... Yeah, it is historically... correlated by the price of USD and its volume.. but not 100%... more like little more than half of that... the other part is uncertainty of the markets, world.. and atm we have rather uncertainty (still)... countries changing policies/forecasts by the DAY, even some fingers on the button etc.. Also countries piling up GOLD... increasing talks about the golden standard... although obviously no official talks... because gold might spike to the sky But yeah, for future, I might consider giving more, not necessarily DAILY, but lets say weekly/monthly "forecasts" about the gold... For the NEXT week... I would, to be honest, stay out of trading it... while central banks and countries... unions... BTW, we just got new show in EU, will be epic drama with the Boris, trust me Maybe in a good way, but there is no good/wrong in trading right? Just PROFITABLe or not.. And I think Boris might increase volatility, to say the least I hate the STALL market... it hurts so much after the release.. prefer to have it FLUID

Ok that would be it for today
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #51,342
  • Jul 23, 2019 4:35pm Jul 23, 2019 4:35pm
Quoting EventsTrader
Not too long ago we had some discussion on currency correlation with gold. I decided to do some overlays to see which currency had the highest correlation. In case anybody is interested, here's how some major currencies correlate with gold since the beginning of the month. It looks like the yen has had the highest correlation recently. Gold and yen have actually been pretty highly correlated recently. Gold & Yen{image} Gold & Euro{image} Gold & Swiss Franc{image} Gold & British Pound{image} Gold & Canadian Dollar{image} Gold & Aussie Dollar{image}...
excellent post!
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #51,343
  • Jul 23, 2019 4:43pm Jul 23, 2019 4:43pm
Quoting EventsTrader
Not too long ago we had some discussion on currency correlation with gold. I decided to do some overlays to see which currency had the highest correlation. In case anybody is interested, here's how some major currencies correlate with gold since the beginning of the month. It looks like the yen has had the highest correlation recently. Gold and yen have actually been pretty highly correlated recently. Gold & Yen{image} Gold & Euro{image} Gold & Swiss Franc{image} Gold & British Pound{image} Gold & Canadian Dollar{image} Gold & Aussie Dollar{image}...
Tnx man! Thats what I tried to explain to someone here.. Mr.Metal.. He could derive gold prices out of my trades/"forecasts"/signals I make in eurusd
Also, would like to add, that sometime, in certain a periods (depending on the: "normal" or pre-crisis, crisis or post-crisis or depending on the uncertainity setups)
GOLD might decouple from this correlations... not completely.. but just enough to screw some trades that do not include this
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #51,344
  • Jul 23, 2019 4:49pm Jul 23, 2019 4:49pm
For LONGER correlation, to not be blindly locked-in (for too long, altough might be GOLD-en in shor-term in some correlation, assuming it is IRON CLAD...
https://www.macrotrends.net/1335/dol...last-ten-years and many other rather informative https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/his...100-year-chart

Watch around the critical years, recessions/crisis etc...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #51,345
  • Jul 23, 2019 5:04pm Jul 23, 2019 5:04pm
Gold
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLDmicroH4.png Size: 26 KB
We err, and err, and err again, but less.
  • #51,346
  • Jul 23, 2019 11:00pm Jul 23, 2019 11:00pm
Inserted Video
  • #51,347
  • Jul 23, 2019 11:52pm Jul 23, 2019 11:52pm
Quoting EventsTrader
Not too long ago we had some discussion on currency correlation with gold. I decided to do some overlays to see which currency had the highest correlation. In case anybody is interested, here's how some major currencies correlate with gold since the beginning of the month. It looks like the yen has had the highest correlation recently. Gold and yen have actually been pretty highly correlated recently. Gold & Yen{image} Gold & Euro{image} Gold & Swiss Franc{image} Gold & British Pound{image} Gold & Canadian Dollar{image} Gold & Aussie Dollar{image}...
Gold and Yen have been doing the most but that could be expected as the risk appetite increases or decreases so too will their supply and demand......a simple look at the UJ chart will show his too.

Nice visually informative post....
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #51,348
  • Jul 23, 2019 11:54pm Jul 23, 2019 11:54pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Tnx man! Thats what I tried to explain to someone here.. Mr.Metal.. He could derive gold prices out of my trades/"forecasts"/signals I make in eurusd Also, would like to add, that sometime, in certain a periods (depending on the: "normal" or pre-crisis, crisis or post-crisis or depending on the uncertainity setups) GOLD might decouple from this correlations... not completely.. but just enough to screw some trades that do not include this
True!!
Have always looked to gold to try and see what EU may or may not do. Regarding he decoupling.....for now Gold has mainted it's highs while EU has remained subdued......telling me two things.....either we have decoupled as you have mentioned or Considering where EU is, we may just see it have a monster rally soon......time will reveal all
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #51,349
  • Jul 24, 2019 1:36am Jul 24, 2019 1:36am
Quoting dweb
Gold {image}
1415 needs to be broken first, it's behaving very strong support so far. 1430 should be respected to favor sellers.

I m also short with SL 1432
P.S. Trade with the discipline of Money Management and Risk Management.
  • #51,350
  • Jul 24, 2019 1:52am Jul 24, 2019 1:52am
Quoting farukh
{quote} 1415 needs to be broken first, it's behaving very strong support so far. 1430 should be respected to favor sellers. I m also short with SL 1432
Agreed! H4 just given another sell level @ 1422.61Similar Stop above 1431......Let's go
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #51,351
  • Jul 24, 2019 3:05am Jul 24, 2019 3:05am
Marking 1424/25 still as key level for bears.....prices staying and closing below it on 4houtly level we could see 1414 break....... patience
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #51,352
  • Jul 24, 2019 3:12am Jul 24, 2019 3:12am
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Tnx man! Thats what I tried to explain to someone here.. Mr.Metal.. He could derive gold prices out of my trades/"forecasts"/signals I make in eurusd Also, would like to add, that sometime, in certain a periods (depending on the: "normal" or pre-crisis, crisis or post-crisis or depending on the uncertainity setups) GOLD might decouple from this correlations... not completely.. but just enough to screw some trades that do not include this
Hey Dude,

It was just the repetition of that which got to me, otherwise, I love your insightful views and posts.
  • #51,353
  • Jul 24, 2019 3:21am Jul 24, 2019 3:21am
Quoting Mr.Metal
{quote} Hey Dude, It was just the repetition of that which got to me, otherwise, I love your insightful views and posts.
Tnx Yeah I noticed the repetetion, just wanted ro reaffirm, since many change views all the time so they are "right" or hedged all the time I put firm statements, are awared of the "risk".
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #51,354
  • Jul 24, 2019 3:36am Jul 24, 2019 3:36am
Quoting dweb
Gold {image}
Gold, H4...so we wait...and eat a salad
Attached Image
We err, and err, and err again, but less.
  • #51,355
  • Jul 24, 2019 5:18am Jul 24, 2019 5:18am
I'd like to bring your attention to the string of negative EU data from this morning.

Mainly this data:

FR Flash Services PMI
52.2 52.7 52.9

FR Flash Manufacturing PMI
50.0 51.6 51.9

GE Flash Manufacturing PMI
43.1 45.1 45.0

GE Flash Services PMI
55.4 55.3 55.8

EZ Flash Manufacturing PMI
46.4 47.6 47.6

This negative data has increased economic uncertainty, let me explain: This data has complicated tomorrow's ECB policy announcment, while i still believe that we wont see any major changes to the rates tomorrow, this data has incrased expectations for a rate cut to happen tomorrow instead of in September.

The ECB might cut its deposit and refinancing rates 10 bps to -0.50% and -0.10%, respectively tomorrow instead of in September. All this is giving a very nice boost to gold right now.

Therefore i advise sellers to be careful and buyers to be patient.

Have a good day in trading.
Through the light of enlightenment, darkness unveils the path of truth.
  • #51,356
  • Jul 24, 2019 6:27am Jul 24, 2019 6:27am
Quoting dweb
{quote} Gold, H4...so we wait...and eat a salad {image}
You also waiting for the short side of things or you targetting 1450 too with your venison salad?
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #51,357
  • Jul 24, 2019 7:17am Jul 24, 2019 7:17am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} You also waiting for the short side of things or you targetting 1450 too with your venison salad?
any one here .. very silent now
  • #51,358
  • Jul 24, 2019 7:24am Jul 24, 2019 7:24am
MARKET UPDATE:



US Tsy Sec Mnuchin: "Strong Dollar Is Important In The Long Term"




What this means is that Mnuchin is advocating against a weaker dollar or better said against an agressive rate cut.

FED has been criticized by administration for a while now, and they have been under great pressure to cut rates and provide the economy with a stimulus... they've been pushed towards weakening USD mainly by the US President.

This is important because FED now has clear approval from someone from the Administration (and it's somebody important).

I see this potentially shifting rate expectations even further. (This highly depends on today's US DATA (PMI) though)

These are the current expectations and i expect them to shift to a ratio of at least 85% for a 25bps if PMI doesn't disappoint.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot (177).png Size: 39 KB
Through the light of enlightenment, darkness unveils the path of truth.
  • #51,359
  • Jul 24, 2019 7:44am Jul 24, 2019 7:44am
Quoting Vorenzd
MARKET UPDATE: US Tsy Sec Mnuchin: "Strong Dollar Is Important In The Long Term" What this means is that Mnuchin is advocating against a weaker dollar or better said against an agressive rate cut. FED has been criticized by administration for a while now, and they have been under great pressure to cut rates and provide the economy with a stimulus... they've been pushed towards weakening USD mainly by the US President. This is important because FED now has clear approval from someone from the Administration (and it's somebody important). I see this...
If you don't mind me asking where do you get this info from? and what do you think this will mean for Gold?
  • #51,360
  • Jul 24, 2019 7:49am Jul 24, 2019 7:49am
I made a small purchase.
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