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Trading Journal (only my take)

  • #221
  • Mar 10, 2019 8:48am Mar 10, 2019 8:48am
The chart is taking shape now, but a few more references are needed. Firstly, I need to know where my high and lows are.

Noting that imo, candles and bars add clutter and hence confusion, and as this is for daily swing trading, then my only interest is to know where the market has been and not what individual candles have done. This point becomes clearer later.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #222
  • Mar 10, 2019 10:23am Mar 10, 2019 10:23am
There's a fair bit of information already present from the above chart. The previous meaningful swing, the area of interest through zooming and the highs and lows.but now some horizontal lines in the sand (literally) are needed.

What lines though. Well, knowing that the playground is always the extent of the boundaries, as I've previously described, (and they will now always be the boundaries btw for any pair or t/f for that matter) it's only the zoom level from now on that will need adjusting remember.

So, rather than me simply tell anyone viewing what levels matter, take a stab yourselves first, and explain where and why to justify your rationale, taking into account what has been shown and described already. My purpose is to a) see whether anyone is taking note b) see whether anyone has sound reasoning of what swing trading is and it's typical and pretty repeatable characteristics.
  • #223
  • Mar 11, 2019 5:54am Mar 11, 2019 5:54am
Could be that no ones interested or no one knows or both to my last post.

There are no trick questions here btw....just logic.

Ok, a small recap first and then to see if any reaction.

The area of interest, the effective zoom level and zz are known as I've shown already. This gives a heads up of a potential playground only.

Markets move up and down all the time, and whilst there are obviously no certainties in trading, the question to think about is what constitutes a trend change.

After all, we often see price retrace and then continue in its' original direction. So, knowing that, then at what level can it reasonably be said that a market direction or trend has actually changed. given what I've summarised above is known.

Now take a stab for those that understand and interested enough.
  • #224
  • Mar 13, 2019 5:07am Mar 13, 2019 5:07am
No responses tells me no one is bothered....not a problem, it just means I wont bother either.

Opportunity to learn how to profit stress free the easy way has now gone. I may pick this up again in a few months, but for now I'll post my views and the odd trade only.
  • #225
  • Mar 15, 2019 7:12am Mar 15, 2019 7:12am
Imo, it is totally irrelevant who or what moves the market, that is not the business of a trader. The mechanics of both t&p are always in play full stop.

A trader cannot know when an institutional influence for example, will move the market. Some think they are capable of knowing their intentions, but I beg to differ and I say "we don't".

That said, a trader still needs to make a living from this game, and we see all kinds of approaches in their quest to succeed. I haven't seen anyone manage that consistently enough to convince me that they've cracked it, and those that may appear to have a modicum of success, and I'm talking no more than 40%-50% success , usually cloak their approach in either an un-describable process known only to themselves, or something that involves degree education at a minimum, and I've not even touched on the nutters out there lol......and there are a number, not just the obvious ones in the headlines all the time!
  • #226
  • Mar 17, 2019 5:56am Mar 17, 2019 5:56am
Based on stuff I've shown, allows me to determine a likely market direction, and knowing that of course means I can plan a trade in advance,

For example, NU has become interesting enough for me to prepare to short. I have levels in place and will execute po's tomorrow.

Sometimes the bus leaves without me as I've said before, and whilst that can be frustrating, it also tells me that my assessment of direction was actually correct, which in itself is pleasing.

My approaches do not look for absolute precision btw, in fact I think anyone who believes they can achieve it consistently are talking nonsense imo. This means that I expect dd and prepare for it. When operating from a daily chart, a realistic attitude must be adopted to give the trade a proper chance to gain traction in the desired direction, and in my case, due to the fact that I generally (but not always) want the market to come to me, invariably means of course that price momentum at least at that point is against me, which I accept.

I'll post an NU chart in real time and real account when/if a trigger occurs
  • #227
  • Mar 20, 2019 4:13pm Mar 20, 2019 4:13pm
NU 1st position now triggered. There will be no rush...... stop and initial tp are in place so nothing to do for now and I'll manage this position depending on how it progresses.

I won't bother with a chart ….no one takes note in any case.
  • #228
  • Mar 21, 2019 5:24am Mar 21, 2019 5:24am
Quoting Landline
NU 1st position now triggered. There will be no rush...... stop and initial tp are in place so nothing to do for now and I'll manage this position depending on how it progresses. I won't bother with a chart ….no one takes note in any case.
2 positions in play now.

As I've explained before, I prefer the market finding my entry levels via po's. Usually, a better deal is found that way, but of course the downside is that momentum will invariably be against me at first, and often takes time to get a grip before moving favourably. Remember, this is swing trading, and patience is probably the most important quality needed for this style, where trades can last days/weeks. The majority of traders are looking for a quick positive turnaround, and occasionally they will succeed. In the long run though, it is highly unlikely that any trader is capable of mastering the short term nuances that the market and the general daily global economics throws up, consistently enough to make a living.

In most cases they are locked to their screen watching every minute tick by, and imo that is not the way to succeed let alone live!
  • #229
  • Mar 21, 2019 6:47am Mar 21, 2019 6:47am
Some will be aware that I have zero tolerance for certain types of posters.

I keep my opinions here and rarely name anyone. There are very very few actually that are noteworthy in a good way (and I'm scratching my head trying to think of anyone as I type lol). On the other hand, there are scores that are noteworthy in a poor way. Most of the inexperienced traders become magnetised to those with the loudest voice, that's just human nature and happens in literally every walk of life.

People need a leader, no matter what the quality of their leadership is, so long as they're loud! It is no different on these forums, and the saying "empty vessels make the most sound" couldn't be more true than on FF.

Knowing what I've just said therefore, stand back before committing any allegiance to any big mouth, listen to the content...not the volumn!
  • #230
  • Mar 25, 2019 6:47am Mar 25, 2019 6:47am
When I consider any trade, I look for a number of satisfactory elements as most do I imagine, nominally 4 in my case and sometimes 6 depending on the template I'm working from.

I personally do not need all the elements in place at once to take a trade, but I will always need the top 3 to be present, and any more than that is reinforcement for me.

When a system, adopting that kind of approach is applied, and I'm assuming that the important elements have been carefully considered and proven already by anyone using such a process, then making trading decisions becomes very easy, and in most cases usually profitable, which is what the whole thing is about.

So, it comes down to a) having a proven method b) leading to a confidence to make a decision c) easy to spot

After all, there's really no point in spending hours to try to arrive at a decision, judging from some of the complex and ambiguous methods seen out there.

It is much better imo to be clinical, which means a decision should be clear to make within 20 seconds or so of looking at any chart.
  • #231
  • Mar 27, 2019 4:28am Mar 27, 2019 4:28am
Quoting Landline
NU 1st position now triggered. There will be no rush...... stop and initial tp are in place so nothing to do for now and I'll manage this position depending on how it progresses. I won't bother with a chart ….no one takes note in any case.
As previously advised, 2 NU positions in play, 50% of both taken now and now both are safe no matter what happens.

I have arbitrary targets only at present for the remainder. I'm still in no rush and with zero pressure it's pretty comfortable now obviously, and can simply look for any suitable add on opportunity for now.

This is basically an example of simple cool trading, informed well ahead, in fact about a week ago. There's no crystal ball involved, just common sense. which usually does the trick.

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  • #232
  • Mar 27, 2019 5:53am Mar 27, 2019 5:53am
There are a number of pairs that conform to my approaches at this time. EU long and GU short for example plus others. Neither are ready for me to take entries just yet, but they are getting there...take note!
  • #233
  • Mar 28, 2019 2:30pm Mar 28, 2019 2:30pm
Quoting Landline
{quote} As previously advised, 2 NU positions in play, 50% of both taken now and now both are safe no matter what happens. I have arbitrary targets only at present for the remainder. I'm still in no rush and with zero pressure it's pretty comfortable now obviously, and can simply look for any suitable add on opportunity for now. This is basically an example of simple cool trading, informed well ahead, in fact about a week ago. There's no crystal ball involved, just common sense. which usually does the trick. {image}
NU chugging along, no action required from me at this point in time and just letting time do its thing.

Now GU is quite nicely poised, so far as I'm concerned anyway, and I now have po's in place ready in the next day(s) or so. I don't need absolute precision for swing trading, I only need trust and belief in my proven approach and then simply let time and patience do the work for me. As usual. no rush, and no worries if it completely leaves without me which happens and is no problem, in other words keeping it simple, definitely equals no stress.....ie trading the easy way!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #234
  • Apr 3, 2019 4:28am Apr 3, 2019 4:28am
Quoting Landline
{quote} NU chugging along, no action required from me at this point in time and just letting time do its thing. Now GU is quite nicely poised, so far as I'm concerned anyway, and I now have po's in place ready in the next day(s) or so. I don't need absolute precision for swing trading, I only need trust and belief in my proven approach and then simply let time and patience do the work for me. As usual. no rush, and no worries if it completely leaves without me which happens and is no problem, in other words keeping it simple, definitely equals no...
Update...

GU PO1 has triggered

NU still doing its thing

No skill needed... so don't be fooled by any gurus banging on about nonsense....both just need time now one way or the other.... that's all!
  • #235
  • Apr 4, 2019 10:45am Apr 4, 2019 10:45am
Quoting Landline
{quote} Update... GU PO1 has triggered NU still doing its thing No skill needed... so don't be fooled by any gurus banging on about nonsense....both just need time now one way or the other.... that's all!
GU trade 1 hit target +130. The other 3 PO'S not triggered yet, and I'll leave them there for now in case of a retrace, which looks quite likely imo.
  • #236
  • Apr 7, 2019 6:30am Apr 7, 2019 6:30am
It was a pretty good week I think especially for those looking to let their trades mature, and I expect many made decent profit no matter what their approach was.

The 2 pairs that I've shown with live entries over that time also moved favourably ie NU and GU, and other pairs that I'm trading did similarly well so all in all a very satisfactory and profitable week.

Regarding NU, I've not needed to do much to the 2 remaining trades other than adjust the sl. These, some may recall are already completely safe, and I know most people would have already closed them out, which is fair enough, but I don't feel any need or pressure to do so personally at this point in time because I have the luxury of comfortable stops in place. I will protect and manage the trade accordingly if/when TP 1 is hit, and continue to wait for any add on opportunity that occurs.

Swing trading the daily charts often takes time remember, and usually much more than you might think, and is probably the main reason that traders end up closing positions out prematurely, and often at just a b/e level, which to my mind seems like a complete waste of time quite literally. This to me simply says that they don't really have faith and trust in their own approach and become so fearful of losing that they close out without giving the trade any kind of chance. These issues are actually the result of poor trade management mainly from the outset, which I've spoken about before in the past, so won't repeat all over again.

Anyway, NU chart attached

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  • #237
  • Apr 7, 2019 9:33am Apr 7, 2019 9:33am
What many would-be traders don't really appreciate when trading the daily t/f for example, and this includes both inexperienced and so called experienced alike, is that the reality of a single trade position is all well and good, but unlikely to make you wealthy....why you ask....well it's simple, a single trade cannot offer enough flexibility to manage the trade. In other words getting the entry roughly right is one thing, but some manoeuvrability is also needed and that's where additional positions come into play.

Once that point is understood and applied in a sensible manner according to your account size, then much greater success should follow. This of course pre-supposes that trade identification is fairly accurate in the first place. Multiple positions in play is the goal, and from which additional logical trades can be made and managed.

Most at some stage will have experienced closing out a trade and feeling happy with themselves, only to see it fly away in the same direction....without you on board!

No one listens so none of this matters much lol, but thought I'd make my point anyway.
  • #238
  • Apr 11, 2019 5:17am Apr 11, 2019 5:17am
Quoting Landline
It was a pretty good week I think especially for those looking to let their trades mature, and I expect many made decent profit no matter what their approach was. The 2 pairs that I've shown with live entries over that time also moved favourably ie NU and GU, and other pairs that I'm trading did similarly well so all in all a very satisfactory and profitable week. Regarding NU, I've not needed to do much to the 2 remaining trades other than adjust the sl. These, some may recall are already completely safe, and I know most people would have already...
Back to NU...there has been a small retracement but nothing significant as yet. We know the markets rarely move in straight lines and we also know that that is more pronounced the lower the t/f of course.

I am personally expecting more retracement to somewhere around the 0.6811 level or thereabouts give or take, and I have another po waiting there in anticipation.

I am in the position with the existing trades that I've shown that if this po triggers then I'm still in good shape, and if it doesn't trigger then also good, meaning of course that the existing trades I already have are moving favourably again.

I realise that this style of trading suits only a very small % of people due to factors I've mentioned in the past such as time required in trade and the risk involved, and that generally leads to both a lack of faith and hence confidence with this kind of approach. The flip side though imo, is that the majority jump in and out of trades all day long, thinking that they are smarter than the markets and convincing themselves that they have figured it all out lol, wasting time and money and stressing unnecessarily in the process......and of course it goes without saying, usually losing! Good luck to them.... one day if they are fortunate enough they will really learn their own approach to consistently profit week in week out, but very very few will achieve that.
  • #239
  • Apr 11, 2019 8:37am Apr 11, 2019 8:37am
USDCHF has triggered a short order.

It's Running against me at present which happens and is quite normal. Another po is also waiting to trigger. I'll manage these as previously or be stopped.

I'm showing these trades as evidence that not all my trades immediately move into positive territory....it's the nature of the game, but the odds are nevertheless still in my favour as per my proven approach. I'll progress this pair when needed for viewers also, as before.

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  • #240
  • Apr 12, 2019 4:35am Apr 12, 2019 4:35am
I saw a thread talking about the hg etc. Quite an interesting thread.

Imo, as I've said before, anyone can be a competent enough trader in a matter of weeks if they know what they should be looking for. I don't hold with the theory that a trader needs any particular trading skill, and that word is definitely over-played....I maintain that anyone can be a successful trader from any walk of life and from anywhere in the world. I know because I've shown plenty of people that I personally know, what to do and in no time at all they are becoming profitable.

They had no so-called skill and no experience, but they did have common sense and most vitally, the capacity to watch and listen!

I agree with that thread starter btw....which, in the absence of a mentor, generally means work on it yourself to understand likelihoods, because no one will be handing out their own proven strategy to complete strangers, it's as simple as that.
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