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  • #6,741
  • Jan 18, 2019 4:28am Jan 18, 2019 4:28am
Quoting ensale
eu gotta be one you missed on m5
Not yet bounce still in play.
  • #6,742
  • Jan 18, 2019 4:30am Jan 18, 2019 4:30am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Not yet bounce still in play.
okay .. watching it for play
It's in fear when people show what they truly value.
  • #6,743
  • Jan 18, 2019 5:01am Jan 18, 2019 5:01am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} in long
Gold took some.
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  • #6,744
  • Jan 18, 2019 5:03am Jan 18, 2019 5:03am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Not yet bounce still in play.
Took some EURUSD, would have cut it straight if it passed pip bellow that flip since it was B quality play.
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  • #6,745
  • Jan 18, 2019 5:14am Jan 18, 2019 5:14am
GBPUSD B quality play on long side, entry 2952.
  • #6,746
  • Jan 18, 2019 6:37am Jan 18, 2019 6:37am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Yep lets see how this plays out, but buying calls is defenetly a worthy play. However not sure why did you went with such a high price and such a long expiration time, i would personally play this very differently, expiration time 1 month max, strike 1.3400 . I dont see 1.400 coming, in my view market would have some sort of underlying bearish tone in case of no Brexit vote since it means further instability for goverment, thus capping the bullish drive on how far can pound rally, thus more conservative targets sound better in this case....
So the reason I went with 1.4000 was more about the cost of entry. As in, with the broker I’m using, there’s a March 21 expiry put at 1.3400, but that’s priced at 513 = ~$5130 for 1 put. The 1.4000 put with June expiry was ~$800. My thinking was that if we see further movement to the upside on the pound, I’ll still see a decent return and also, by no means do I plan on holding until June.
  • #6,747
  • Jan 18, 2019 6:47am Jan 18, 2019 6:47am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} DE30 took 1 R. Gave 2 bounces. {image}
I’m curious, and maybe my understanding is unclear, but isn’t trading indexes counterintuitive? I mean, the instrument is tied to an underlying aggregate of share prices. Or is this instrument more of a derivative market that tracks but does not 100% mirror the actual index? In which case that would make more sense to me because order flow would then actually have a role in price.
  • #6,748
  • Jan 18, 2019 7:00am Jan 18, 2019 7:00am
GBPAUD on watch for possible supply takeout long play. Clearout of stops on GBPJPY, should help to push GBPAUD:
  • #6,749
  • Jan 18, 2019 7:03am Jan 18, 2019 7:03am
Quoting Mindsphere
{quote} So the reason I went with 1.4000 was more about the cost of entry. As in, with the broker I’m using, there’s a March 21 expiry put at 1.3400, but that’s priced at 513 = ~$5130 for 1 put. The 1.4000 put with June expiry was ~$800. My thinking was that if we see further movement to the upside on the pound, I’ll still see a decent return and also, by no means do I plan on holding until June.
Right makes sense, following cheaper cost is decent reason, also watch the volume, always pick the ones that trade on decent volume, never pick low volume ones becuase they under-perform and often have very big spreads (hard to get out). Not sure if your broker reports volume on options though, because some dont.
  • #6,750
  • Jan 18, 2019 7:14am Jan 18, 2019 7:14am
Quoting Mindsphere
{quote} I’m curious, and maybe my understanding is unclear, but isn’t trading indexes counterintuitive? I mean, the instrument is tied to an underlying aggregate of share prices. Or is this instrument more of a derivative market that tracks but does not 100% mirror the actual index? In which case that would make more sense to me because order flow would then actually have a role in price.
DE30/DAX is index asset. I am not exactly sure what your question is, but the purity of order flow is not an issue. For example one can trade crosses easily, even though the order flow in those is often not pure (futures and spot FX main transactions come trough main currencies or main pairs, crosses just aggregate the differences between moves more or less), altough there is also present market making activity directly in crosses, the same way it is in indexes (for example SP500 or DAX MM activity, or large bulk of options expirations that are not tied to any specific stock but rather just index itself).
All assets have active order flow altough you are right it just matters to what extent. For example even the weirdest liability derivates have some portion of active order flow on them and as long as its liquid it could be tradeable.
Not sure if thats what you meant.
  • #6,751
  • Jan 18, 2019 7:14am Jan 18, 2019 7:14am
High priority watch now GBP, bid is coming in. Eyes on. Watch the ticking, the volume, the bids on tape.
  • #6,752
  • Jan 18, 2019 7:18am Jan 18, 2019 7:18am
Quoting janpec1000
High priority watch now GBP, bid is coming in. Eyes on. Watch the ticking, the volume, the bids on tape.
Hi janpec, how do you watch volume/tape in the FX market? Via futures? I do not see another good possibility ... Cable at resistance turned into support here @2940/2930 region. If the trend remains intact, we should see buying soon. If not, back in the choprange ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #6,753
  • Jan 18, 2019 7:42am Jan 18, 2019 7:42am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Hi janpec, how do you watch volume/tape in the FX market? Via futures? I do not see another good possibility ... Cable at resistance turned into support here @2940/2930 region. If the trend remains intact, we should see buying soon. If not, back in the choprange ...
Yeh futures.
  • #6,754
  • Jan 18, 2019 8:05am Jan 18, 2019 8:05am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} DE30/DAX is index asset. I am not exactly sure what your question is, but the purity of order flow is not an issue. For example one can trade crosses easily, even though the order flow in those is often not pure (futures and spot FX main transactions come trough main currencies or main pairs, crosses just aggregate the differences between moves more or less), altough there is also present market making activity directly in crosses, the same way it is in indexes (for example SP500 or DAX MM activity, or large bulk of options expirations that...
So what I’m getting at is that the DAX’s price or value is not defined by people trading the DAX itself. It’s defined by the prices of the 30 top German companies. With that in mind, when it moves it’s because the 30 underlying companies’ share prices are moving. Thus, trading market bottom rotations or continuation pullbacks seems counterintuitive because the movement of the index cannot be impacted by the positioning of stops or limit orders. It’s purely defined by the price movements of the underlying shares. Or have I got it wrong?
  • #6,755
  • Jan 18, 2019 8:26am Jan 18, 2019 8:26am
Quoting Mindsphere
{quote} So what I’m getting at is that the DAX’s price or value is not defined by people trading the DAX itself. It’s defined by the prices of the 30 top German companies. With that in mind, when it moves it’s because the 30 underlying companies’ share prices are moving. Thus, trading market bottom rotations or continuation pullbacks seems counterintuitive because the movement of the index cannot be impacted by the positioning of stops or limit orders. It’s purely defined by the price movements of the underlying shares. Or have I got it wrong?
Basically goes to what i said above, index also has its own trade flow, even though that bigger portion of price discovery comes from underlying assets.

For example in crypto: Ethereum/ETH ETF asset is leveraged indexed asset where majority of high cap alternative cryptos are forming its price discovery each day, but if market gets deep enough options trading will appear, and those options are weighted directly to index, not the underlying specific assets, and thus if there is bulk of expiries (lets say 100 mil)at once it will impact all underlying crypto assets on price even though that position was specifically weighted on ETF asset.

Or you can have huge short covers that were opened on Bitcoin pushing the price up drastically but at same time they push up price on some speicfic underlaying crypto that is part of whole crypto market but not really specifically connected to Bitcoin.


The indexes provide larger liquidity pools, so they have their own order flow for larger players to enter/exit.

The point being is that indexes trade and impact underlying assets, and assets trade and impact indexes. Its both way street not just one way. The only difference is that some indexes trade a lot less than its underlying assets.
  • #6,756
  • Jan 18, 2019 8:32am Jan 18, 2019 8:32am
Equities on watchlist: BPTH reverse split. Majority of reverse splits fade within first day, thus short on table. Entry around 4,5 target 3ish.
  • #6,757
  • Jan 18, 2019 8:32am Jan 18, 2019 8:32am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Basically goes to what i said above, index also has its own trade flow, even though that bigger portion of price discovery comes from underlying assets. For example in crypto: Ethereum/ETH ETF asset is leveraged indexed asset where majority of high cap alternative cryptos are forming its price discovery each day, but if market gets deep enough options trading will appear, and those options are weighted directly to index, not the underlying specific assets, and thus if there is bulk of expiries (lets say 100 mil)at once it will impact all...
Thanks for that explanation, makes more sense to me now.
  • #6,758
  • Jan 18, 2019 8:53am Jan 18, 2019 8:53am
Quoting janpec1000
Equities on watchlist: BPTH reverse split. Majority of reverse splits fade within first day, thus short on table. Entry around 4,5 target 3ish.
BPTH easy fade. 4,50 down to 3,00 as planned.
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  • #6,759
  • Jan 18, 2019 9:13am Jan 18, 2019 9:13am
FX done with, very slow day today.

Equities in play MBOT, A grade weakness. Short .96 looking for full scale wash. Chances of wash very high.
  • #6,760
  • Jan 18, 2019 10:19am Jan 18, 2019 10:19am
Quoting janpec1000
FX done with, very slow day today. Equities in play MBOT, A grade weakness. Short .96 looking for full scale wash. Chances of wash very high.
Looks like not yet, caught one more GBPAUD pullback leg play. Closed position too soon by mis-click.
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