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  • #6,381
  • Dec 28, 2018 8:11am Dec 28, 2018 8:11am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} usddkk, bounce play still valid though., {image}
usddkk
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  • #6,382
  • Dec 28, 2018 8:52am Dec 28, 2018 8:52am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} usddkk {image}
Thanks for a great thread, been working my way through it.

Just trying to clearly understand this play, please let me know if my notes below are correct:

- Sideways movement with clear highs and lows
- Not making higher highs, kept bouncing off the same price around 6.5151
- Higher lows were progressively being formed, indicating the bulls might be starting to take control
- High volatility occurred prior to the strong breakout
- Possible long entry on the breakout, with a stop to be placed below the microshelf around 6.5124 (or would you keep this stop a little tighter?)
- A safer long would be after price retested 6.5151 and bounced up, entering a couple of pips above that level after the level was hit

I note that this doesn't hit your usual description of a fast clean single move up from the low of the consolidation range before the breakout, so I'm just wondering what factors made this A grade?

Thanks
  • #6,383
  • Dec 28, 2018 11:15am Dec 28, 2018 11:15am
Quoting Mindsphere
{quote} Thanks for a great thread, been working my way through it. Just trying to clearly understand this play, please let me know if my notes below are correct: - Sideways movement with clear highs and lows - Not making higher highs, kept bouncing off the same price around 6.5151 - Higher lows were progressively being formed, indicating the bulls might be starting to take control - High volatility occurred prior to the strong breakout - Possible long entry on the breakout, with a stop to be placed below the microshelf around 6.5124 (or would you...
Hey, all good notes, on the point.

Here are variables in this play making it A grade.
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  • #6,384
  • Dec 28, 2018 12:03pm Dec 28, 2018 12:03pm
Backside on low float trash starts often after first high volume wash , when the soaker starts to offload. After that the same play is on, short pops and A grade weakness.
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  • #6,385
  • Dec 28, 2018 8:58pm Dec 28, 2018 8:58pm
BUY on RED (MAJOR) / GRAY (MINOR) : possible BOTTOM
SELL on GREEN (MAJOR) / BLUE (MINOR) : possible TOP
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We err, and err, and err again, but less.
  • #6,386
  • Jan 1, 2019 11:26am Jan 1, 2019 11:26am
Alright in we go into 2019, wish everyone good luck. FX getting back into play as MM activity drives back up in next days delivering hopefully new plays.

My personal plan 2019:
-very strict respecting of all new adopted rules in 2018
-no need to be in play every day, focus on A grade plays
-on my 2 new bigger equity accounts only focus on A grade plays and A grade weaknesses no exceptions unless on very small size
-less procrastination overall
-deep stress tests of every moths taken plays, will provide and update all data and mistakes / errors improvements here both for FX and equities.
  • #6,387
  • Jan 1, 2019 4:47pm Jan 1, 2019 4:47pm
Quoting janpec1000
Alright in we go into 2019, wish everyone good luck. FX getting back into play as MM activity drives back up in next days delivering hopefully new plays. My personal plan 2019: -very strict respecting of all new adopted rules in 2018 -no need to be in play every day, focus on A grade plays -on my 2 new bigger equity accounts only focus on A grade plays and A grade weaknesses no exceptions unless on very small size -less procrastination overall -deep stress tests of every moths taken plays, will provide and update all data and mistakes / errors improvements...
Happy new year Janpec, thank you for spreading such valuable knowledge. Do you see yourself continuing to trade this way long term?
instagram: stepbystepforex
  • #6,388
  • Jan 2, 2019 4:28am Jan 2, 2019 4:28am
Quoting janpec1000
Alright in we go into 2019, wish everyone good luck. FX getting back into play as MM activity drives back up in next days delivering hopefully new plays. My personal plan 2019: -very strict respecting of all new adopted rules in 2018 -no need to be in play every day, focus on A grade plays -on my 2 new bigger equity accounts only focus on A grade plays and A grade weaknesses no exceptions unless on very small size -less procrastination overall -deep stress tests of every moths taken plays, will provide and update all data and mistakes / errors improvements...
Great plan Janpec, best of luck for 2019!

I've started demo trading this method, would be great to get some feedback on the below trade I took a short while ago (AUDCAD).

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Some notes:
- It didn't feel like an A grade trade because the move up after the clearout of the lows was not that strong, and it did not break the highs on the first go.
- I think I entered too early. It feels like the breakout before my entry wasn't really a breakout (it pushed through only 1.5 pips or so from previous highs). Should we be waiting for a more pronounced breakout before entering on a retest?
- My take profit target was perhaps a little ambitious. This might be a product of my entry not being ideal - my SL was around 6 pips to sit below the shelf, so my target was around 10 pips, which was a little below the low that the earlier strong move south had blasted through.

Cheers!
  • #6,389
  • Jan 2, 2019 6:05am Jan 2, 2019 6:05am
Quoting rafael5643
{quote} Happy new year Janpec, thank you for spreading such valuable knowledge. Do you see yourself continuing to trade this way long term?
Sure, same patterns will remain , however it is likely some new ones might be added to playlist since i constantly keep researching and testing the markets. Usually 1 new play per year is added.
  • #6,390
  • Jan 2, 2019 6:11am Jan 2, 2019 6:11am
Quoting Mindsphere
{quote} Great plan Janpec, best of luck for 2019! I've started demo trading this method, would be great to get some feedback on the below trade I took a short while ago (AUDCAD). {image} Some notes: - It didn't feel like an A grade trade because the move up after the clearout of the lows was not that strong, and it did not break the highs on the first go. - I think I entered too early. It feels like the breakout before my entry wasn't really a breakout (it pushed through only 1.5 pips or so from previous highs). Should we be waiting for a more pronounced...
Hey Mindsphere, neat charts what platform is that?

This defenetely was not A grade play, but it overall the way you played was okay. Your entry was fine, however it is always better to wait for price to pull back to the core flip zone and retest it for entry, especially on A grade plays you should see very clear strong bid rejections of those break areas, thats your sign to go in. Nothing wrong with getting in on first area where you consider it breakout, but you can always decide to only enter half size, and then enter the rest half size on more robust entry on rejection pullback. Its all about pushing heavy size when you feel like everything is clicking on A grade side, and being weaker on size when you are not so confident or in doubt.
TP was all inline of normal, not too ambitious. Try as much as you can scaling of once in profits, wait for pop, and offload 30% of size, wait for another higher pop and offload more there, that will always deliver you better performance than 1 full exit. Same for loss cutting.
  • #6,391
  • Jan 2, 2019 6:17am Jan 2, 2019 6:17am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Hey Mindsphere, neat charts what platform is that? This defenetely was not A grade play...
Thanks for the feedback, will take it on board.

The platform is CTrader - I don't think I'm allowed to name the broker in here, but it's a popular one. They don't do any equities unfortunately, forex and commodities only.
  • #6,392
  • Jan 2, 2019 6:39am Jan 2, 2019 6:39am

Russian ruble, mid-long term macro overview



Inflationary pressures are back on RUB, setting the pathway for USDRUB onwards to 80.000 and new all time lows likely over period of 1-2 years. Both USDRUB and USDTRY are a perfect examples of inflationary deflations, where the economy hits the bubble phase that is hit by limitation of foreign financing and asset collapse of its main exports, ending with large inflation problems and drastic growth reduction.
Current short and mid term factors pushing the inflation rate and FX exchange rates lower for Ruble are:

-new sanctions introducted this year on officials and economy (short term, mid term)
-debt exclusion of Russia from global capital markets Euribor and US SWIFT (mid and long term)
-rates starting to hike back up again, slowing the economy (mid term)
-currency defense with hikes that ended with normalization but has not yielded a positive FX exchange rate (after 16% rate hike in 2015, USDRUB still trades at 70, close to all time lows). (short, mid and long term).
-more likely to come this year amids the increasing cold war

In typical inflationary depression the central bank does urgent hike to bring rates above inflation and then cut back within a year to normalization, and often that does stabilize within 2 years but only if reliance on foreign financing decreases sharply and inflation is taken into control none of which are case of Turkey or Russia, and especially due to ever mounting pressure from west , the currencies are very unlikely to stabilize, which means that Ruble is likely to take its similar path that way traveling in 65s-85s amids first cold war as it is not typical inflationary depression (there are big outside of country factors pressing on the countries economy).


My plan is to play it softly on long side of USDRUB , especially waiting for M15 or H1 structural plays of pullback legs along the bullish trend , or M1 plays if some heavy momentum kicks in and hold any trade for large targets with scale outs. Basically same play that was on in 2015 but a bit slower peace in terms of setups.

Bellow rates, currency FX rate, core inflation.
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  • #6,393
  • Jan 2, 2019 7:59am Jan 2, 2019 7:59am
gold possible play.
  • #6,394
  • Jan 2, 2019 8:22am Jan 2, 2019 8:22am
EUR in play, looking for retrace back for bounce entry long. Missed initial break. Notice the tightening of HLs and the last micro HL and bid rejections at supply absorptions that is the proper supply takeout to play stronger size.
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  • #6,395
  • Jan 2, 2019 8:37am Jan 2, 2019 8:37am
Quoting janpec1000
EUR in play, looking for retrace back for bounce entry long. Missed initial break. Notice the tightening of HLs and the last micro HL and bid rejections at supply absorptions that is the proper supply takeout to play stronger size. {image}
Solid first play of this year, 3 R, 2R on first one, added on second one as it rejected the low again, important to watch the ticking action, wait for bid to come in and display the defense. If using futures volume can be of big help, if using spot FX then ticking is the leading info.
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  • #6,396
  • Jan 2, 2019 11:04am Jan 2, 2019 11:04am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Solid first play of this year, 3 R, 2R on first one, added on second one as it rejected the low again, important to watch the ticking action, wait for bid to come in and display the defense. If using futures volume can be of big help, if using spot FX then ticking is the leading info. {image}
Same type of play in dollar, but with lesser liquidity and aim. Didnt trade this one.
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  • #6,397
  • Jan 2, 2019 5:25pm Jan 2, 2019 5:25pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Solid first play of this year, 3 R, 2R on first one, added on second one as it rejected the low again, important to watch the ticking action, wait for bid to come in and display the defense. If using futures volume can be of big help, if using spot FX then ticking is the leading info. {image}
Great trade. I'm just wondering if the strong rejection of the high (as per annotation below) made you hesitate for this entry? It showed more momentum to the downside than the upside (took 2 minutes of bears to undo 8 minutes worth of bulls).

Cheers!
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  • #6,398
  • Jan 3, 2019 4:13am Jan 3, 2019 4:13am
USDDKK bounce entry long if it retraces enough. Missed initial takeout.
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  • #6,399
  • Jan 3, 2019 4:39am Jan 3, 2019 4:39am
Quoting janpec1000
USDDKK bounce entry long if it retraces enough. Missed initial takeout. {image}
USDDKK solid bounce no DD. Took 2.5 R .
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  • #6,400
  • Jan 3, 2019 4:45am Jan 3, 2019 4:45am
Quoting Mindsphere
{quote} Great trade. I'm just wondering if the strong rejection of the high (as per annotation below) made you hesitate for this entry? It showed more momentum to the downside than the upside (took 2 minutes of bears to undo 8 minutes worth of bulls). Cheers! {image}
You are absolutely right, i should have mentioned it. My initial size was half of normal due to hesitation on first entry, when such counter drop is meet thats usual procedure, i have mentioned it already few times on thread.
The key reason why i still entered trade (would have not otherwise) is because bid displayed participation on that last small bottom candle, otherwise it would have been likely pass on entry. However to keep thing in perspective, in many cases such sharp reversal accur on supply takeout plays, so its not about being scared of entry, its about respecting tight stops on bounce and watching the tick action on critical flip area thats the main thing to focus. Because in many cases it will drop with momentum back towards flip point, why? I cant prove that, but my guess would be that MM who has been absorbing trough whole structure at supply offloads large size on the move up after takeout(creating sharp drop), and then picks it up again at more desirable lower price where there isnt much sell orderflow, basically similar set or same set of players selling back to them to refill at better price, i have noticed that on equities where you can clearly see MM on EDGX/ARCA/NASDQ where he is filling from , but in FX well it is a guesswork but it is likely to be true, in either case all it matters is overall behaviour over 100 plays, that i dont need to guess because that is solid info.
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