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Historical News data and news trading 5 replies

FX News Calendar as Wallpaper (if you consider news trading) 8 replies

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Pre-news sentiment - an alternative to news straddle? 35 replies

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Trading news and sentiment

  • #141
  • Nov 28, 2018 4:22pm Nov 28, 2018 4:22pm
Quoting lordgbengs
{quote} Thank you for the explanation. Although, I would not consider NZD and AUD emerging markets imo.
Technically they are not but I see them as the same simply because their economies behave the way emerging markets behave and are affected when emerging markets are affected.
  • #142
  • Nov 29, 2018 6:06am Nov 29, 2018 6:06am
To another good month. I hope you all had a good month too. If not no worries you will get there. Feel free to ask if you have questions.

Bottoms up (it's sideways, I'm not drunk)
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  • #143
  • Nov 29, 2018 5:57pm Nov 29, 2018 5:57pm
Hi all. my first post here. Been trading fx for 10 years now , on and off. No success.

Trading fundamentals for 1 year. Again nothing. Losing all the time. I am trying to make just 1-2% a month. No luck.So Frustrating.

Ecotrader would you be so kind to elaborate on your trading process a little bit more. Making 10% a month for me is something I can only dream off.
By the time i have done my research and read all the info i can get, and get into a trade, the sentiment is already changing and usually i am stuck in a losing trade.
How do you deal with this, how do you get in front of the market.

Thanks for your time here. This is one of the best treads on FF.
  • #144
  • Nov 29, 2018 6:11pm Nov 29, 2018 6:11pm
Been an interesting week. The Fed's big gun has finally spilt the beans and added a reference to being close to neutral, the point at which they will pause and wait. Other fed members have added "data dependant" to their communication. Today core PCE, their preferred inflation gauge, was softer than expected. The signs are there for $ softness but what we need is a catalyst.

On another note tarrifs on eu motors into the USA could potentially shift ecb policy. 7% of eu Gdp is from the motor Industry. They charge the usa 10% on imports of vehicles while the usa charges 2.5%. The issue for the eu is this is a common tarrif for external motors so reducing it for the usa, would mean reducing it for everyone and that will be a sizeable hit to their coffers. They don't want cheap Chinese cars flooding their domestic industry. Draghi was also on the dovish side in his recent speech communication.

This weekend is the much anticipated g20 with the highlight being not the agenda but the meeting between trump and xi. Any positive outcome to diffuse the trade tentions will give a major boost to currencies like the aud. If nothing positive comes out we will see a continuation of $ strength which is going to further add downside pressure to inflation, which is something the Fed doesn't want to see but will put them in a holding pattern removing 2019 rate hike expectations. If there are fireworks we will see gaps on Sunday open. Will add content as it happens over the weekend. We could hit December off with a bang.
  • #145
  • Dec 1, 2018 2:14pm Dec 1, 2018 2:14pm
Trump Xi dinner at 5:30pm local time

https://twitter.com/Lee_Saks/status/...935934467?s=09
  • #146
  • Dec 1, 2018 3:06pm Dec 1, 2018 3:06pm
Meeting begins

Reports say there are eight seats for each side at the table. One includes US trade hawk Peter Navarro but there are no reports yet on who the others are.
Before beginning, Trump said he thinks he will end up getting something done that's good for China and good for the United States.
  • #147
  • Dec 1, 2018 6:43pm Dec 1, 2018 6:43pm
KUDLOW SAYS TRUMP-XI MEETING WENT 'VERY WELL': G20

NO ADDITIONAL TARIFFS WILL BE IMPOSED ON CHINA AFTER JAN. 1 FOLLOWING TRUMP, XI MEETING; NEGOTIATIONS WILL CONTINUE:


Not sure if this includes the planned 25% tarrifs or not. (waiting for more info)
  • #148
  • Dec 2, 2018 3:14am Dec 2, 2018 3:14am
Mr Trump has reaffirmed his commitment not to boost tariffs on $200bn of Chinese goods to 25% on 1 January.

The White House said that if a trade agreement on issues including intellectual property, cyber theft and agriculture have not been reached with China within 90 days, then both parties agree that the 10% tariffs will be raised to 25%.

It's good news but with a pinch of salt. 90 days to agree a trade deal is a big ask. In any case this news should provide a theme for sentiment on market open with trade sensitive currencies enjoying short term relief. AU comes to mind more than kiwi.
  • #149
  • Dec 2, 2018 3:17am Dec 2, 2018 3:17am
Quoting EcoTrader
Mr Trump has reaffirmed his commitment not to boost tariffs on $200bn of Chinese goods to 25% on 1 January. The White House said that if a trade agreement on issues including intellectual property, cyber theft and agriculture have not been reached with China within 90 days, then both parties agree that the 10% tariffs will be raised to 25%. It's good news but with a pinch of salt. 90 days to agree a trade deal is a big ask. In any case this news should provide a theme for sentiment on market open with trade sensitive currencies enjoying short term...
Sorry but a question.
If there is an indeed a boost of tariffs, how will this effect USD?

I'm trying to understand how this works.


Cheers!
  • #150
  • Dec 2, 2018 3:39am Dec 2, 2018 3:39am
Quoting blaze1
{quote} Sorry but a question. If there is an indeed a boost of tariffs, how will this effect USD? I'm trying to understand how this works. Cheers!
At the moment all is on hold which is positive for risk sentiment and positive for trade sensitive currencies. If the 90 day threshold is passed without a deal or extension, and Trump increases tarrifs to 25%, then the dollar will rally as a safe haven.
  • #151
  • Dec 2, 2018 11:58am Dec 2, 2018 11:58am
Will discuss this later, busy with a bbq but it looks like mixed signals

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/us-...ts-se-20181202
  • #152
  • Dec 2, 2018 2:38pm Dec 2, 2018 2:38pm
So we are going to get the gap in trade related pairs like ausi which is currently about 0.7375.

It's a jam packed week with lots of central bank activity amongst other economic data. Tuesday is RBA so keep that in mind if you are going to get in on some of the Trump Xi related sentiment that should support trade related pairs so long as no risk off themes surface. I am catching up on the last ausie statement and data since their last meeting. I am looking for additional supportive evidence to go long in light of the trade sentiment that should bode well for risk on this week.
  • #153
  • Dec 2, 2018 3:01pm Dec 2, 2018 3:01pm
Quoting EcoTrader
So we are going to get the gap in trade related pairs like ausi which is currently about 0.7375. It's a jam packed week with lots of central bank activity amongst other economic data. Tuesday is RBA so keep that in mind if you are going to get in on some of the Trump Xi related sentiment that should support trade related pairs so long as no risk off themes surface. I am catching up on the last ausie statement and data since their last meeting. I am looking for additional supportive evidence to go long in light of the trade sentiment that should...
Any guess about whether the gap is in the direction of last week's trend or in the opposite direction?
  • #154
  • Dec 2, 2018 3:06pm Dec 2, 2018 3:06pm
I found this site where you can check out the quotes on the weekends.
  • #155
  • Edited 3:50am Dec 4, 2018 1:52am | Edited 3:50am
Audusd swing trade

I have been stalking this for some time waiting for a catalyst to give me the opportunity to trade. Aud has taken a beating since the fed started hiking. It was made worse by the dollar safe haven flows due to trade concerns and global growth concerns. Recent events include the fed changing tone as they shift into neutral stance with data dependency for future policy changes. The G20 meeting with trump and xi served to cushion the issue and improve risk sentiment. Aud has been recovering at a modest pace however like the usa they too are experiencing low inflation amidst good employment growth. If they can keep Gdp above 3.3% it bodes well for their recovery. So long as trade issues don't reignite uncertainty then we should see the Aud appreciate to 0.75. This is my plan anyway but I will let the market show me when I should exit even if I have a target.
  • #156
  • Dec 4, 2018 1:57pm Dec 4, 2018 1:57pm
Yield curve inversion. Stormy weather on the $ horizon


Bond king (managed 120 bln) told Reuters the "totally flat" Treasury note curve will "stay the Fed's hand" on future hikes in the federal funds rate.


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/04/bond...r-economy.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...iss-says-video
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  • #157
  • Feb 9, 2019 11:21am Feb 9, 2019 11:21am
You guys are delusional if you think you can outsmart banks and institutions, which have teams of economists/analysts crunching data for their traders 24hs... Those guys trade way before the news INTO the news, they get out at the ``news`` which are actually old news by the time they are released. They have access to resources and information way beyond your reach.

You are just providing liquidity for them...

You gotta learn how to detect their footsteps and then ride their coat tails.

This fundamental analysis is like doing technical analysis with hindsight.
  • #158
  • Feb 9, 2019 1:17pm Feb 9, 2019 1:17pm
Quoting Gauer
You guys are delusional if you think you can outsmart banks and institutions, which have teams of economists/analysts crunching data for their traders 24hs... Those guys trade way before the news INTO the news, they get out at the ``news`` which are actually old news by the time they are released. They have access to resources and information way beyond your reach. You are just providing liquidity for them... You gotta learn how to detect their footsteps and then ride their coat tails. This fundamental analysis is like doing technical analysis with...

Yeah I must be delusional pulling in 10 percent a month consistently. Maybe I am using black magic!

You however don't know what you are talking about. Based on your response on the other thread it is clear you haven't got a clue how to apply fundamentals. A suggestion for you. Go an learn about it instead of assuming you know how it works. Maybe you read a few books and now you think you know what you are talking about.

Another suggestion. If you can go take a look at any professional trading firm, investment bank, hedge fund. They all use fundamentals which is why businesses like bloomberg can get away with charging them thousands per news terminal every month on a yearly or multi year contact.
  • #159
  • Feb 9, 2019 1:54pm Feb 9, 2019 1:54pm
The only reason they charge that (bloomberg) is because of a demand for it, there is a whole industry built around it, same thing with technical analysis and the myriad of courses available charging absurd prices... It does not prove your point.

Yeah I got a clue, I didn`t read a couple of books, I read all of them plus watched all courses available...

Fundamental analysis lacks objectivity, having to analyze several different ``leading``, coincident and lagging indicators to form a bias, not to mention most of those indicators suffer revisions after they are releases lol... It is just a guess in the end, at least with technical analysis you are being objective. Either something is or it isn`t.

Oh wait, let me decode what the chairman of the central bank is trying to say, right lol... Oh he is hawkish, expect rate hikes, perhaps?

The ``news `` is worst than the consensus, SELL!!!
  • #160
  • Feb 9, 2019 1:58pm Feb 9, 2019 1:58pm
Oh really? Post a screenshot of your trading account history with all those trades then, let`s check...
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