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Historical News data and news trading 5 replies

FX News Calendar as Wallpaper (if you consider news trading) 8 replies

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Pre-news sentiment - an alternative to news straddle? 35 replies

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Trading news and sentiment

  • #121
  • Nov 26, 2018 1:16am Nov 26, 2018 1:16am
Quoting spotrate
I had temporarily disabled my EA because I thought the markets were going have a heart attack at the 02:00 Brexit high-impact release. Well, nothing happened. When is the shockwave actually expected to happen?
When was this. The dates to be aware of is either the 10th or 11th of December.
  • #122
  • Nov 26, 2018 1:23am Nov 26, 2018 1:23am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} When was this. The dates to be aware of is either the 10th or 11th of December.
EU Brexit Summit at 02:00 GMT+2

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  • #123
  • Nov 26, 2018 1:34am Nov 26, 2018 1:34am
Quoting spotrate
{quote} EU Brexit Summit at 02:00 GMT+2 {image}
That was never going to be a mover.
  • #124
  • Nov 26, 2018 1:39am Nov 26, 2018 1:39am
The only "news" event I am interested in over the next month is the Dec FOMC. Come Dec19. The assumption of another 25bps hike has been well baked into the equity pie over the last couple months. I could see some different scenarios & have been setting traps for those:

1. Said baking is mostly done and equities will claw back some ground in a tepid Santa rally. A good spot to sell some index puts.
2. The Fed comes thru with another hike as expected and sets the stage for a Q1 slide.
3. The Fed holds off and a stronger rally ensues, but prolly not for long.

Important nearterm is what comes out of the G20 re US-CHINA trade... maybe especially for tech.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #125
  • Nov 26, 2018 1:40am Nov 26, 2018 1:40am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} That was never going to be a mover.
Ah, that's too bad for me. I missed out on some good pending orders. Oh well... I'm actually fine with any news but I took caution when you said the moves could potentially be thousands of pips. Okay so no Brexit related movers until December 11th?
  • #126
  • Nov 26, 2018 2:09am Nov 26, 2018 2:09am
Quoting spotrate
{quote} Ah, that's too bad for me. I missed out on some good pending orders. Oh well... I'm actually fine with any news but I took caution when you said the moves could potentially be thousands of pips. Okay so no Brexit related movers until December 11th?
There will be unscheduled and this week week we might even start seeing a start of the move if it becomes evident parliament will reject.
  • #127
  • Nov 26, 2018 2:10am Nov 26, 2018 2:10am
Quoting The Fool
The only "news" event I am interested in over the next month is the Dec FOMC. Come Dec19. The assumption of another 25bps hike has been well baked into the equity pie over the last couple months. I could see some different scenarios & have been setting traps for those: 1. Said baking is mostly done and equities will claw back some ground in a tepid Santa rally. A good spot to sell some index puts. 2. The Fed comes thru with another hike as expected and sets the stage for a Q1 slide. 3. The Fed holds off and a stronger rally ensues, but prolly not...

The China negotiations is definitely on my watch list but the fed isn't at this point unless they start communicating more dovishly
  • #128
  • Nov 26, 2018 2:42am Nov 26, 2018 2:42am
a clear return to risk on sentiment to kick the week off. No doubt the EU summit helped this along as well as Italy news on them mulling over a smaller deficit. Onto the FED. They are very close to neutral rate and i recall some months back where one of the voting members mentioned neutral rate being between 2.5 and 2.75 percent. So we have a dollar that is now approaching a pause point and therefore we should see it depreciate unless a major risk off event takes place and the $ is seen as the safe haven.

With the $ being on the soft side so far, if it continues and Draghi is not dovish we should have a buying opportunity in Euro. If he is dovish however then selling Euro against $ is not the best opportunity as the $ is looking to be soft, but that of course could change on unscheduled news. If dovish then you might want to pair it with an emerging market currency - AU is looking strong.
  • #129
  • Nov 26, 2018 3:16am Nov 26, 2018 3:16am
ECB's Praet: Recent developments point to some loss in growth momentum

note: he is generally dovish (he is on the executive board)
  • #130
  • Nov 26, 2018 8:48am Nov 26, 2018 8:48am
nothing new or ground breaking in Draghi testifying. One element that stands out is him highlighting the need for reform and that their forecast and expectation is somewhat dependent on that for the recovery to be stronger.

No trade
  • #131
  • Nov 28, 2018 11:19am Nov 28, 2018 11:19am
Thank you Powell. Closing off November with juat over 10% gain
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  • #132
  • Nov 28, 2018 11:22am Nov 28, 2018 11:22am
Update


Powell has basically confirmed neutral is pretty much here and that's all the market needed to sell.
  • #133
  • Nov 28, 2018 11:23am Nov 28, 2018 11:23am
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Any obvious reason for this? Fed's Powell Speech?
  • #134
  • Nov 28, 2018 11:30am Nov 28, 2018 11:30am
Quoting EcoTrader
Update Powell has basically confirmed neutral is pretty much here and that's all the market needed to sell.
Sell, forever?
  • #135
  • Nov 28, 2018 11:44am Nov 28, 2018 11:44am
Quoting spotrate
{quote} Sell, forever?
Just putting the breaks on rate hikes. The fed have said for over a year now that their objective is neutral rate and they have mentioned before the range which we are in. We should see the $ weaken or at least lose steam. That is unless risk off and the $ is seen as the safe haven. If you were a swing trader this would be about the time you would start to hunt a trade against the dollar but you have to account for rollover
  • #136
  • Nov 28, 2018 12:09pm Nov 28, 2018 12:09pm
Will post later on what you can expect in terms of opportunity from news trading
  • #137
  • Nov 28, 2018 12:26pm Nov 28, 2018 12:26pm
Quoting EcoTrader
Will post later on what you can expect in terms of opportunity from news trading
Thank you, will be interesting to hear your views on the strength of NZD dollar this week amidst disappointing data.

Cheers
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #138
  • Nov 28, 2018 1:31pm Nov 28, 2018 1:31pm
Quoting spotrate
{quote} Sell, forever?
not yet , Market always repetitive history
Regard NOOR16
  • #139
  • Nov 28, 2018 3:10pm Nov 28, 2018 3:10pm
Quoting lordgbengs
{quote} Thank you, will be interesting to hear your views on the strength of NZD dollar this week amidst disappointing data. Cheers
This week has seen a return to risk on and money flows into higher risk markets (em). If you recall last week the markets were selling off on global growth concerns. New Zealand is mostly agriculture based in terms of world trade whereas ausi or rand are primarily commodity based and linked with global growth in terms of their export growth. If you are going to trade those exotics then definitely learn about their economies in respect to the relationship with other economies. Being an emerging market, its a classified as more risky but you should spend some time understanding the different emerging market economies and their relationships with others as well as how they are affected when risk sentiment changes. This is important because it overrides, at least in the short term, any domestic economic data.

In other words economies all differ and understanding the difference is foundational for trading them all fundamentally during different market sentiments
  • #140
  • Nov 28, 2018 3:47pm Nov 28, 2018 3:47pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} This week has seen a return to risk on and money flows into higher risk markets (em). If you recall last week the markets were selling off on global growth concerns. New Zealand is mostly agriculture based in terms of world trade whereas ausi or rand are primarily commodity based and linked with global growth in terms of their export growth. If you are going to trade those exotics then definitely learn about their economies in respect to the relationship with other economies. Being an emerging market, its a classified as more risky but you...
Thank you for the explanation. Although, I would not consider NZD and AUD emerging markets imo.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
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