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  • #5,781
  • Sep 18, 2018 3:33am Sep 18, 2018 3:33am
Quoting janpec1000
Potential play on USDCNH before NY closes, tariffs comfirmed, CNH should now take another hit along with further drop in Monday. Looking for bullish pullback leg setup on USDCNH. Plotting here mid term macro target for USDCNH with target above current H4 highs 6.895X {image}
Bullish macro target baked on USDCNH, but room is still to go higher, buying the dips on micro momentum setups is the way to go for next 2 days.
  • #5,782
  • Sep 18, 2018 9:16am Sep 18, 2018 9:16am
UNP only one on watchlist for today, tracking current structure if it prints strong HH its a go. Strong pre market gap on momentum, has potential.
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  • #5,783
  • Sep 18, 2018 11:40am Sep 18, 2018 11:40am
wait for 1st strong hear?
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  • #5,784
  • Sep 18, 2018 1:33pm Sep 18, 2018 1:33pm
GBPCHF in play on mid term macro, clearout baked and now decent HH bake. Its Asia so i wont be taking any strong entries here, will wait if it consolidated to build better side trough micros in early London on long side.
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  • #5,785
  • Sep 18, 2018 1:41pm Sep 18, 2018 1:41pm
Quoting charvo
wait for 1st strong hear? {image}
Careful there, shorts are getting hammered left and right on TLRY, i am watching day after day over last weeks from prop shops to retailers, everyone is getting squeezed. Cannabis shock can be equivalent to crypto jumping out of the gates at 100 bil market cap, you dont want to short that really...until its heavily parabolic or there is A quality demand failure play.

Mind the examples pointed on heavy short squeezes on thread from before. There are two entries to go with for good probabilities, one is to wait for heavy momentum fade with gap down open and the price then starts to respond with bear momentum. We had one already but bulls kicked straight in on that large down gap, so it doesnt fill the criteria. Wait for another one if it gets one and make sure price is droping from market open.
Second one ...easier one is as you suggested heavy bear candle, but....it really needs to become parabolic and then dump in middle of day hard. It didnt had any such hard dips yet.

All one can say now, is this is the most over-extended asset currently in any market, and heavily overextended assets have huge corrections, that correction will come and for now on short side RR can be very good ( i would say dip to 70 or 60 is possible) but it really needs perfect A quality setup before trigger.
Otherwise people just keep throwing weak short entries at it, and it just keeps squeezing. You are looking at "Bitcoin at 18k", its over extended, it will fade with correction, but the key is to wait for macro and micro entries.

Also make sure you have shares to short, not all brokers have it for this one since its quite fresh IPO.
  • #5,786
  • Sep 18, 2018 1:49pm Sep 18, 2018 1:49pm
Quoting janpec1000
AWSM on todays list of soft short squeeze, plotted for bear play, currently demand failure with washout, likely to set up down trend as usual behaviour of short squeezes. Risk should be no more than 6,90 {image}
Havent traded much at all today, but best play was yesterdays watchlister, AWSM short squeeze. As pointed it was only a matter of down trend to form once demand failure kicks in. The key is either to short a failure or just keep shorting into consolidations on M1. Had tight spreads and relatively easy borrows for shorts.

Relatively easy example of asset where market completly over-reacted to news. Company reported only 1 added "super slick" Apple store and the stock went way too high for such non-event news. On low performing stock this will always lead to demand failure and full correction, even if news are somewhat better than the blip it was there.
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  • #5,787
  • Sep 19, 2018 3:35am Sep 19, 2018 3:35am
Quoting janpec1000
GBPCHF in play on mid term macro, clearout baked and now decent HH bake. Its Asia so i wont be taking any strong entries here, will wait if it consolidated to build better side trough micros in early London on long side. {image}
GBPCHF long covered. London delivered as expected, Asia held a defense on key order flow flip level. A note to remember, HH should be baked on strong leg preferably with clearout ahead of it, best way to avoid fakes. If one was not to follow that rule entry would be 1 high prior on H1, and it would have been a loosing trade. That is why setups should tilt towards A quality play as much as possible.
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  • #5,788
  • Sep 19, 2018 3:40am Sep 19, 2018 3:40am
Flagship play of the day, macro supply takeout on EURCHF. Very clean setup with strong rounding and HL pushes into supply, clean strong momentum HH bake and 0 DD. Doesnt get better than this. Missed the entry for about an hour.
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  • #5,789
  • Sep 19, 2018 3:59am Sep 19, 2018 3:59am
Looking now for dollar bottom short term. Asymmetric supply takeout after targeted clearout, looking for some chopping and bouncing at current area before moving higher.
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  • #5,790
  • Sep 19, 2018 4:12am Sep 19, 2018 4:12am
Quoting TheRealDeal
{quote} Hey Jan, i see we use different zoom levels But we are both right {image}
Banked 3R on 3 positions
4th posision running already for 11R. I will leave it give me 20R at least. Or maybe 200 - it could we new trend start who knows.
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  • #5,791
  • Sep 19, 2018 4:49am Sep 19, 2018 4:49am
Quoting janpec1000
Looking now for dollar bottom short term. Asymmetric supply takeout after targeted clearout, looking for some chopping and bouncing at current area before moving higher. {image}
Dollar bottom baked, didnt catch any entries, went up with straight impulse leg, missed entry on pullback leg HH bake.
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  • #5,792
  • Sep 19, 2018 4:51am Sep 19, 2018 4:51am
Tracking only GBP for rest of session in case if it prints pullback leg on M5, if 2726 demand holds (so far holding with heavy size) then it might print it. HH bake for entry.
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  • #5,793
  • Sep 19, 2018 5:36am Sep 19, 2018 5:36am
Quoting janpec1000
Tracking only GBP for rest of session in case if it prints pullback leg on M5, if 2726 demand holds (so far holding with heavy size) then it might print it. HH bake for entry. {image}
GBP pullback leg covered, micro shelf held. When catalyst is in play on asset, thats when one should be the most active and playing the micros along heavy momentum.
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  • #5,794
  • Sep 19, 2018 5:59am Sep 19, 2018 5:59am
Still focus on XCHF . When CHF moves at impulse there is usually a hidden but often a decent reason why it does, and well good reason to keep eye on it. Heavy momentum flows as we have seen them previous week. Eyes on pullback legs. AUDCHF just printing one not long ago.
  • #5,795
  • Sep 19, 2018 8:44am Sep 19, 2018 8:44am
MTEMT on focus on equities, decent positive news on new partnership, exceeding current cap of equity by 2 times, potential for further upward move, looking for bull plays. Waiting for consolidation to form and then to go long on HH bake.
  • #5,796
  • Sep 19, 2018 8:46am Sep 19, 2018 8:46am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Careful there, shorts are getting hammered left and right on TLRY, i am watching day after day over last weeks from prop shops to retailers, everyone is getting squeezed. Cannabis shock can be equivalent to crypto jumping out of the gates at 100 bil market cap, you dont want to short that really...until its heavily parabolic or there is A quality demand failure play. Mind the examples pointed on heavy short squeezes on thread from before. There are two entries to go with for good probabilities, one is to wait for heavy momentum fade with...
TLRY parabolic finally stepping into massive rejection. 220 down to 180 in just few minutes. Plotting bear rectangle for short plays on micros. Careful with slow scale ins, its a wild one.
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  • #5,797
  • Sep 19, 2018 9:09am Sep 19, 2018 9:09am
interesting structure. What do you think Jan?
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  • #5,798
  • Sep 19, 2018 9:24am Sep 19, 2018 9:24am
Quoting TheRealDeal
interesting structure. What do you think Jan? {image}
Yes there is something to this one, especially if you look from its big brother...gold. Some heavy soaking of demand going on there which correlates to silvers levels.
If it trades above current H1 supply of last 3 highs, it might be worth it, overall its B quality setup but if micros print anything decent its potential entry, but you would have more chance to catch it in gold since it trades more thickly, in either case you are trading exact same pattern as they are both correlated atm (silver / gold).
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  • #5,799
  • Sep 19, 2018 9:27am Sep 19, 2018 9:27am
Missed straight from the gates setup on US30. Should have checked earlier today on higher TFs.
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  • #5,800
  • Sep 19, 2018 9:32am Sep 19, 2018 9:32am
ETFC tracking for potential play, flat demand, decent gap with momentum. Needs strong HH print for long entry.
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