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(binned per thread starter's request) Market bottom rotation trad

  • #5,501
  • Aug 14, 2018 8:26am Aug 14, 2018 8:26am
THST on priority focus today, low float, up over 100%. Macro bear play but not yet, for now considering longs first.
  • #5,502
  • Aug 14, 2018 11:12am Aug 14, 2018 11:12am
SRCI lookng for bottom bake, and potential long on retrace. Consistent drop with exhaustion candle and strong bounce.
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  • #5,503
  • Aug 14, 2018 12:31pm Aug 14, 2018 12:31pm
Quoting janpec1000
Tomorrow primary play Turkish lira, especially focus on early London / Istanbul overlap that is if TCB decides to move, thats most likely when the action will be delivered. In either case USDTRY is play on both sides, if TCB delivers as pointed on previous post, its aim to look for short plays. If TCB does not move a further crash in lira will be delivered thus playing the longs on USDTRY will prevail and we could easily see 7.X taken out. Probability side, TCB will make a move (emergency rate hike between 3 - 6%). At market open today it is possible...
USDTRY shorts covered, one winner one loser overall 2.5 R .
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  • #5,504
  • Aug 15, 2018 8:17am Aug 15, 2018 8:17am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} USDTRY shorts covered, one winner one loser overall 2.5 R . {image}
Turkish lira reaching bull macro target (USDTRY bear) as pointed earlier this week, asset was overextended and there was at least some action to be expected from goverment to stop the shortfall. It is possible to see some further downside to 5.5X or so, but at that point from shorting standpoint it doesnt matter, the lift on lira is close to baked, there isnt much to look on short side anymore. There was no proper action from central bank, liquidity was tightened to tighten the shorting of lira, but that will only help a little.
From here onwards its just a matter of being patient and waiting for when next catalyst or tech pattern setups up which will further escalate the roll of the lira.

Somewhen within next months (plus minus, might be a bit more than that) a huge bear macro will open as the EM liquidity crisis opens , where priority plays will only be on XTRY, XRUB, XZAR, XCNY and XBRL. Ill post when that enters into play, from there the EM FX currency markets will start to collapse most likely and pushing macro shorts is all that is to be done at that point.
Place position, set BE SL, place another one, set BE SL, repeat. 2014 shock will soon turn again but this time parabolic.
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  • #5,505
  • Aug 15, 2018 9:17am Aug 15, 2018 9:17am
LBTYK on watch for potential takeout.
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  • #5,506
  • Aug 15, 2018 9:59am Aug 15, 2018 9:59am
Quoting janpec1000
LBTYK on watch for potential takeout. {image}
Faded no supply test, no play.
  • #5,507
  • Aug 15, 2018 10:17am Aug 15, 2018 10:17am
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Necessity knows no law except to conquer
  • #5,508
  • Aug 15, 2018 10:39am Aug 15, 2018 10:39am
AAPL alert on track, needs momentum move into supply for play.
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  • #5,509
  • Aug 15, 2018 12:05pm Aug 15, 2018 12:05pm
been following this for some time

ltf interesting to watch, but it is overall making a HTF shelf, a converging shelf.
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  • #5,510
  • Aug 15, 2018 12:06pm Aug 15, 2018 12:06pm
Quoting janpec1000
AAPL alert on track, needs momentum move into supply for play. {image}
AAPL in play.
  • #5,511
  • Aug 15, 2018 12:10pm Aug 15, 2018 12:10pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} AAPL in play.
AAPL covered. Took profits too early should have left some. Neat setup, very clean behaviour that markets put in this one for heads up.
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  • #5,512
  • Aug 15, 2018 12:52pm Aug 15, 2018 12:52pm
USDCNH spotted it too late, might still enter on slow retrace.
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  • #5,513
  • Aug 15, 2018 1:01pm Aug 15, 2018 1:01pm
Quoting janpec1000
USDCNH spotted it too late, might still enter on slow retrace. {image}
USDCNH covered long for some.

The key factor to any setup will be... is the price moving strongly into the key area that trader is using as initiation for trigger entry. Without that its only a guess if order flow will hold up.
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  • #5,514
  • Aug 15, 2018 1:17pm Aug 15, 2018 1:17pm
CMCSA potential play.
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  • #5,515
  • Aug 15, 2018 1:25pm Aug 15, 2018 1:25pm
GBPJPY alert set if it comes into play.
  • #5,516
  • Aug 15, 2018 1:47pm Aug 15, 2018 1:47pm
Hey, Jan, what do you think of USDMXN?
it seems vulnerable too.......

Quoting janpec1000
{quote} the EM liquidity crisis opens , where priority plays will only be on XTRY, XRUB, XZAR, XCNY and XBRL. Ill post when that enters into play, from there the EM FX currency markets will start to collapse most likely and pushing macro shorts is all that is to be done at that point. Place position, set BE SL, place another one, set BE SL, repeat. 2014 shock will soon turn again but this time parabolic. {image}
  • #5,517
  • Aug 15, 2018 2:00pm Aug 15, 2018 2:00pm
SNAP down trend end bake.
  • #5,518
  • Aug 15, 2018 2:01pm Aug 15, 2018 2:01pm
Quoting charvo
Hey, Jan, what do you think of USDMXN? it seems vulnerable too....... {quote}
Oh ye i completly forgot MXN to be added. For sure, MXN is sitting right next to ZAR.
  • #5,519
  • Aug 15, 2018 2:02pm Aug 15, 2018 2:02pm
ORCL
  • #5,520
  • Aug 15, 2018 2:03pm Aug 15, 2018 2:03pm
US equities at ramp, looking for supply takeout plays , thats the moment when overall market is at rally.
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