(binned per thread starter's request) Market bottom rotation trad

Quoting janpec1000

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{quote} Overnight panic run on lira with markets closed as Lira crashes massively, capitulation of Turkish investors and holders has finally come. Now the fear flight into safe haven begins at full peace inside the country, dollar in first place, gold second and perhaps up to extent not yet so much but more later...Bitcoin. Later today press conference of goverment to confirm new politices or stance of central bank, at this point nothing really matters on long run. There are two scenarios that will now (very likely, high probability) be taken in...

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Quoting janpec1000

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{quote} Just a side note for M1 traders, at this point USDTRY becomes very risky asset to trade. A whipsaw moves in either direction could come in next days, and without playing it careful one could quickly find himself in wrong turn. EDIT: buyers for Lira are gone. Spreads at ask huge. At this point even with finding shorting entry it would be difficult or rather to say not a great on RR side. As the bid gives up on Lira now this could be taking any size of move into the hole of liquidity on buy side. {image}

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Quoting janpec1000

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{quote} Lira marking historical lesson for the books right now, with strongest move in currency markets since emergency hike on Russian rubble in 2014. This is what i meant by previous posts on Lira, once currency goes parabolic and the moves are carried by inflationary panic, the move every day afterwards is a complete surprise for most participants in terms of how strong can it be, as it starts with 1% daily plunges and in parabolic state those easily start to print 10% daily plunges which is exactly what we had last 2 days. Eyes on Turkish central...

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Quoting janpec1000

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WYNN filled long.

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Quoting janpec1000

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Dollar coming at play if it backs up above current high. Emerging markets drive should have some sustained push on dollar. {image}

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Quoting janpec1000

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{quote} USDTRY plotting strong bearish macro, expecting heavy move within next 2 days. By now its obvious that asset is heavily over-extended. Obviously the path is still much much higher, but what matters is on current short term basis. With / IF we get delivery today the USDTRY will crash hard, thus the game plan is to wait for that and then look for micro shorts and try to pile in as much as possible depending on how drastic the ticking action gets. Piling in ahead would be extremely risky but depends all on position sizes. Probability of TCB...

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Quoting janpec1000

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TAP in play.

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Quoting janpec1000

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COP potential bounce entry after supply takeout.

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Quoting janpec1000

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Tomorrow primary play Turkish lira, especially focus on early London / Istanbul overlap that is if TCB decides to move, thats most likely when the action will be delivered. In either case USDTRY is play on both sides, if TCB delivers as pointed on previous post, its aim to look for short plays. If TCB does not move a further crash in lira will be delivered thus playing the longs on USDTRY will prevail and we could easily see 7.X taken out. Probability side, TCB will make a move (emergency rate hike between 3 - 6%). At market open today it is possible...

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