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  • #5,461
  • Aug 9, 2018 3:51am Aug 9, 2018 3:51am
Quoting janpec1000
Eyes again on Turkish lira. Its rotating above the highs currently, could bake another runner. Only attempting this one from micro entry if anything is printed. Missed one nice setup just few minutes ago. {image}
USDTRY baking macro setup. Delivering over 8 R in total.
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  • #5,462
  • Aug 9, 2018 3:58am Aug 9, 2018 3:58am
Quoting janpec1000
Large bear macro, Russian rubble. Again.... And here we go baking another bear setup for RUB. This now puts USDRUB as strong priority focus over next 2 weeks with potential breaktrough move towards 66.X or higher. No matter what one trades, whether its M1 to D1 this play is a primary focus for large target holding with potential surprise spike to be delivered. As the macro tech setup develops and the probability of it to bake bull target is very high (due to outside macro forces that will come into play in August), there is potential good RR in...
And here we go for flagship play of the month, Russian rubble macro short.
66.X target baked within just 2 days. As pointed out when all things line up perfectly, the tech setup, the macro catalysts, the timing, and potential liquidation of SLs, a poppers are often around the corner.

This play has basically the same charasteristic to above posted play of EURNZD (XNZD) from charvo. The setup and the bake both initiated completly the same, same tech setups, same baking process that took its action on the pop along "surprising" macro catalyst.

Liquidating the longs here for a whooping 68 R gains, personal biggest trade of 2018. Planned perfectly, executed decently and baked great with market performing a impulse bake. All trades but one initiated from micros or mid term micros.
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  • #5,463
  • Aug 9, 2018 4:02am Aug 9, 2018 4:02am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} And here we go for flagship play of the month, Russian rubble macro short. 66.X target baked within just 2 days. As pointed out when all things line up perfectly, the tech setup, the macro catalysts, the timing, and potential liquidation of SLs, a poppers are often around the corner. This play has basically the same charasteristic to above posted play of EURNZD (XNZD) from charvo. The setup and the bake both initiated completly the same, same tech setups, same baking process that took its action on the pop along "surprising" macro catalyst....
Now with pressure from liquidity of international markets is put on Russia in terms of access to loans, the pressure is now back again at central bank as the Rubble starts to weaken again. Currently sitting at 67.X for the USD, as it progresses higher RCB will now face the same situation than Turkish central bank, the economy requires ramping rate hikes, but without access to liquidity its impossible to do emergency hikes at peace, thus likely it will under-deliver on required hikes and the inflation will pick once again. The 2015 inflation rate will soon enough be once again in the media attention.
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  • #5,464
  • Aug 9, 2018 7:24am Aug 9, 2018 7:24am
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  • #5,465
  • Aug 9, 2018 8:26am Aug 9, 2018 8:26am
Primary focus today KBSF, very low floater only 1 mil shares outstanding. Currently up over 100% on pre market. Decent outstanding short interest over past 2 months, meaning that short squeeze is likely to take place, thus if buyers show up at market open, expecting this one to squeeze hard towards 10 or 12.
After that the real play comes in which is bearish macro. Plotting macro square here with expectation of full price correction back down towards 4.X . Probability play at 95%.

Playing this one towards long with continuation micro plays is fine as long as buyers show up with clear accumulation, but the real juice is in short once the bull momentum fades, and the shorts are squeezed, the new orderflow on short side will start to pile in along with demand failure.
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  • #5,466
  • Aug 9, 2018 8:29am Aug 9, 2018 8:29am
Quoting janpec1000
Starting equities with focus on WMLP heavy short squeeze. Very tiny float only 1 mil shares outstanding, this one could explode in either direction very quick. Bearish macro rectangle plotted for short play, but very thin low floaters are always played on short side only when the bullish momentum collapses, until that doesnt happen....it can go further higher and higher. Its a very high probability play (95% win - success rate) but first needs a hammering rejection before it comes into play. Secondary option is shorting micro setup of demand failure....
WMLP short squeeze reached bear macro target at 1.7 . Target baked. (August 3rd play)
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  • #5,467
  • Aug 9, 2018 9:09am Aug 9, 2018 9:09am
usdtry on watch
  • #5,468
  • Aug 9, 2018 9:26am Aug 9, 2018 9:26am
Quoting janpec1000
usdtry on watch
new hh marked on rotation structure
  • #5,469
  • Aug 9, 2018 10:41am Aug 9, 2018 10:41am
Quoting janpec1000
Primary focus today KBSF, very low floater only 1 mil shares outstanding. Currently up over 100% on pre market. Decent outstanding short interest over past 2 months, meaning that short squeeze is likely to take place, thus if buyers show up at market open, expecting this one to squeeze hard towards 10 or 12. After that the real play comes in which is bearish macro. Plotting macro square here with expectation of full price correction back down towards 4.X . Probability play at 95%. Playing this one towards long with continuation micro plays is fine...
KBSF macro short target reached, 4.X baked. Demand failed straight from the gates open and it crashed all the way down....as the usual patterns behaviour.
As mentioned before from January this year there were many plays and only 1 of them really failed, the rest all baked the targets, usually within 1-2 days.
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  • #5,470
  • Aug 9, 2018 11:29am Aug 9, 2018 11:29am
AMGN if it bakes HH leg into supply is a maybe, then retest back towards last 2 highs for entry.
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  • #5,471
  • Aug 9, 2018 12:16pm Aug 9, 2018 12:16pm
Hi Janpec,

I have recently came across your thread, and am following with great interest. I think a lot of the things you're doing are aligned to what I do (trade small timeframes, trade fast, trade breakouts), and I'm looking for something that will help me turn profitable. I'm still halfway through all your posts, and am working diligently to read through everything.

Just wanted to get your thoughts on the usdjpy chart below. I could see the range, but the top of the range was rather, as you say, asymmetric. However, there was a decent squeeze. Can I get your view on how you would have looked at this? Thanks!


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  • #5,472
  • Aug 9, 2018 1:24pm Aug 9, 2018 1:24pm
Quoting quintox
Hi Janpec, I have recently came across your thread, and am following with great interest. I think a lot of the things you're doing are aligned to what I do (trade small timeframes, trade fast, trade breakouts), and I'm looking for something that will help me turn profitable. I'm still halfway through all your posts, and am working diligently to read through everything. Just wanted to get your thoughts on the usdjpy chart below. I could see the range, but the top of the range was rather, as you say, asymmetric. However, there was a decent squeeze....
Hello quintox, the setup is fine. Its symmetric enough, 1 pip overshoot on M1 chart is considered as pretty much as even.
Again very important part of supply takeout, is that last part of a puzzle, did price break trough supply with a pop where price pops straight trough the sell order flow without being rejected, usually you want to see whole strong leg into supply (not in case of your setup) but there was last candle that popped trough on decent strenght.

Symmetry of structure is only one part of this setup, if trader only focuses on finding symmetrical setups, it is not enough, you will enter too many fakes. Its important that big players show the intent to squeeze or continue-push the order flow, which is show by that last leg that disrupts the symmetry.
The setup is not A quality, but it is a setup fine for entry.

Overall you are on good track.
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  • #5,473
  • Aug 9, 2018 1:30pm Aug 9, 2018 1:30pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} USDTRY baking macro setup. Delivering over 8 R in total. {image}
Lira printing new all time largest candle with hold and 5.5 taken with a no fight at all. Markets are baking massive volatility spikes even before any proper sanctions were announced.
Now the play shifts a bit towards both sides , once the sanctions are released (tomorrow or next week likely) then a trader could take either side to enter trade based on how severe sanctions are. By now its a 100% fact that markets have priced in severe sanctions for Turkey, and if sanctions are not as strong a trader could take a short on USDTRY for short term relief rally on TRY that is totally fine, but chances for sanctions to under-shoot are low, most likely it will be in-line with expections or somewhat lower.

In either case there is nothing that can stop the show now, now the question only remains how much more oil will Turkish goverment spill on itself to let the lira ignite some more. Counter moves likely to follow, and as pointed previously the major one are not following Irans sanctions, which will open further road for new US sanctions somewhen in next months. Its a baked road by now.
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  • #5,474
  • Aug 9, 2018 2:27pm Aug 9, 2018 2:27pm
CPB potential rotation upwards if HH is baked with momentum. Strong spike ahead of structure.
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  • #5,475
  • Aug 9, 2018 2:39pm Aug 9, 2018 2:39pm
MTCH potential end of the day play. Nothing else setting up.
  • #5,476
  • Aug 9, 2018 2:47pm Aug 9, 2018 2:47pm
Quoting janpec1000
MTCH potential end of the day play. Nothing else setting up.
Finishing day here on one quick end of the day short squeeze on MTCH.
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  • #5,477
  • Aug 9, 2018 4:48pm Aug 9, 2018 4:48pm
it seemed the 2nd one is not entered on micro/mid term? just curious, lol


Quoting janpec1000
{quote} All trades but one initiated from micros or mid term micros. {image} {image}
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  • #5,478
  • Aug 10, 2018 6:36am Aug 10, 2018 6:36am
Quoting charvo
it seemed the 2nd one is not entered on micro/mid term? just curious, lol {quote} {image}
Yep as i pointed in the post "all but one".
  • #5,479
  • Aug 10, 2018 6:51am Aug 10, 2018 6:51am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Lira printing new all time largest candle with hold and 5.5 taken with a no fight at all. Markets are baking massive volatility spikes even before any proper sanctions were announced. Now the play shifts a bit towards both sides , once the sanctions are released (tomorrow or next week likely) then a trader could take either side to enter trade based on how severe sanctions are. By now its a 100% fact that markets have priced in severe sanctions for Turkey, and if sanctions are not as strong a trader could take a short on USDTRY for short...
Overnight panic run on lira with markets closed as Lira crashes massively, capitulation of Turkish investors and holders has finally come. Now the fear flight into safe haven begins at full peace inside the country, dollar in first place, gold second and perhaps up to extent not yet so much but more later...Bitcoin.
Later today press conference of goverment to confirm new politices or stance of central bank, at this point nothing really matters on long run.

There are two scenarios that will now (very likely, high probability) be taken in next few days:
-TCB hikes rates drastically, forming massive short squeeze with at least 3% libor rate hike and limiting overnight liquidity
-Turkish goverment imposes capital controls, bans dollar as legal tender in country, locks the gold and limits fully how much can each business spend outside
-TCB burns trough billions of USD to provide short term liquidity to banks

3rd move is most likely a done deal that will be taken. Second one also most likely question is only to which extent. First one however is less likely and its to see what we get and how markets will react. Either case eyes on Lira for next days. Plays on long side of USDTRY for now unless some big changes come in next 2-3 days.

On long run it doesnt matter, there are no moves that can save the currency, simply due to fact of heavy foreign debt exposure, and with current devaluation spike many companies will face the default cycle very soon, which means that hiking rates will only create further defaults, and so will capital controls. A default for Turkey is looming, and there is nothing to stop it at this point. Emerging crysis boiling pots in Turkey and Argentina are soon to reach spill over, with few other EM countries to follow next.
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  • #5,480
  • Aug 10, 2018 6:52am Aug 10, 2018 6:52am
GBPUSD took long on supply takeout with momentum move.
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