(binned per thread starter's request) Market bottom rotation trad

Nice thread. This is also how I look at the price and how I trade. Would be more interested on more forex setups!

3270 make or fail on GBPUSD as pullback rotation.

UPS long 115,18 tight SL 2 ticks.

UPS stopped out.

STT

not quite condense, but since momentum strong, i took it, twice,

very sad, lol,...... yes, i took chance trying to get lucky even i saw that strong overhead supply........

None of those trades are bad in particular, this wasnt the work of overhead supply, you actually entered before initial supply was taken out. Both trades fine just your SLs are too big. Micro shelf was established as buyers were absorbing initial supply, you just took a stab that it will eventually get absorbed, which is fine, but the SL should be much higher, look at where the actual micro lows were at your first initial entry. Bellow there should SL sit.

no more trading with the guru IF? haha i told you years ago....

Alright here we go into weekend with Turkish election on Sunday. TRY is open for two way street either a massive relief rally if Erdogan looses (unlikely) or the one which markets have already been baking in for a while, the hyperinflation crisis. Monday opens decisive moves on TRY whichever way the markets will chew on it is the way forward, and especially if after elections any credibility is taken from TCB , the Turkish currency is done with. Very decisive moments for Turkish economy coming in the next days / months to seal the fate.
Trading wise it has all been layed out already, trading by finding micro setups along macro direction as long as all macros are released as expected is the way to go. Following the momentum to the short side of TRY.

Monday could potentially give a very good entry chance to short TRY ahead of London open (7-9 GMT) if elections are baked on expected side, could be a solid RR trade. All depends on results though.

For me personally there is nothing else to trade on Monday than TRY most likely, all attention going there.

ACN trend rotation.

BK potential long on supply takeout, but bear legs are way too overpowering, bulls need to pull momentum takeout before considering entry.

ACN long sold, pushy trade, spready but decent setup overall.

GRUB now on sight, but spreads are too un-optimal, just one to observe unless spreads get better.

GRUB no takeout no absorption, rejection only.

INTU probably last play of the day.

Trend change after consistent behaviour is shifted by momentum and first HH or LL bake (HH for bull, LL for bear shift)

Dow theory in markets generally doesnt perform well simply because observing or spotting trend changes by the rules set by Dow Jones in his principle is not performing well . Expecting down trend to change one the first go that price randomly prints new HH is simply not performing well as in many cases that does not happen. The key to actually be a lot more accurate on potential trend shifts is to use two variables which Dow Jones did not include, first one being symmetrical consistent volatility (clean expressed trend where lows and highs have similar depths and behaviour) and when the symmetry is ruined / shifted it has to be done on momentum move, where the targeted attempt shows up. So two variables: momentum shift and consistency of behaviour. Adding those two improves the reading of rotations a lot. Realistic expectation is that about 70% of trends will simply not feature that because 70% of trends are very asymmetric without clean consistency, thus really its to focus on the rest 30% or less where cosnistency is expressed well.
Rotations are not about trendlines or support and resistance lines nor about really any external plotted informations, its just all really about symmetry and how many market participants spot the change and trigger the order flow shift. Symmetry of behaviour is the only constant in the markets that is truly the major order flow baking factor and something that really makes or breaks any system or at least majority of them.

Crypto markets in perspective

Aside from all future tellers and "prediction" callers what cryptos might or might not go trough, here is simple objective perspective. Inoonavite markets and technologies move in exponential surges with massive speculative flows where the actual utility is lagging behind, usually causing large corrections, which over time are bought up and accumulated, until the HH bake begins on new strong momentum and the new wave begins. Thats the usual expected behaviour, thus its likely to see further dip for another months before another surge begins, behaviour like that is not out of norm.
A simple question...is utility rate of cryptos currently at 500 billion USD? The answer is straightforward no. Far from that. Thus a further dip is likely, and its currently massively driven by speculative and investment flows eg....future expectations. Its like dipping into projections and real grounding of Http/TCIP protocols in 90s, are those two protocols in early 90s at utility rate of 1 trillion USD market cap? ...No. Are they very likely going to be in future? Yes. Therefore markets bake future expections, but if future expectations are heavily priced in, a huge dip is likely to come once panic sets in for those who dont get it.

Hi, Jan,

when reviewing your charts, i found this one. I have some doubts in my read of this rotation. If it is a solid attempt, then be it.

in LIVE, i'd much likely get caught by this stoploss.

do I make mistakes in identifying the micro shelf? micro shelf itself, if zoom in to check, also needs to be symmetric, or can be like this chart's case?

love reading this.

i came across this one
https://medium.com/@super.crypto1/4th-dimension-bitcoin-manipulation-cartel-can-it-be-burnt-no-way-c53de65c166a

so mentally very ready to live thru this long dark bearish months....... lol

Its a good question. When determining "break" its all relative to structure size in terms of time and volatility / move. So the more candles you have in legs of your structure the more time you need to give to your break level to be confirmed by holding (in terms of candle numbers). The less candles structural legs have, the less candles it needs to confirm the hold of break level. So if you took a close look at structure you showed from the TF picked, you would want probably 3-5 candles to hold break confirmed and if single candle shifts quickly into oposite direction, considering that as clearout rather. This is where sophisticated price reading comes into place.
On structure where legs are formed of 5-10 candles its pretty straight forwards, and all break levels are to be considered within single or max 2 candles, but legs with 20 candles or more then add that much on it. As i said before...its all relative.
This is probably one of the most difficult things to answer with clear answer. Being stopped out on wrong effective level identification and wrong break level is going to happen, question is only how much can you avoid it and reduce it by having proper context price reading.

The right answer is what you can do about it?
First is to cut loses quickly, second is to use scale outs and start cutting positions as price moves beyond the break levels, those are two actual solution to minimize damage done by not having proper effective price reading. Scale 30% of size when you are not comfortable with, scale next 30% when price goes into back the break level, and scale out last 30% of position when key high or low is invalidated.