Dear Traders, im not quite good at math but i have a question ? (If we can solve it i will delete post if its not helping us!)
Has anyone ever made profit from a 50 / 50 winrate with 1:1 profit and loss ?
Or better said is it possible to make a 50 / 50 winrate with expaction 1:1 profotable ?
Hear is my idea, but im not quite good at math so maybe you can help me find out if im right or wrong, i would really appreciate it
I did an ea that trades randomly and i found out that win loss ratio is almost everytime 50:50 with (tp/sl 1:1).... now im trying to calculate this:
If i set one order!->
Tp 60 points
Sl 60 points
My chances to win are
50% win
50% loss
If i now retrade my loss in the full amount: but with smaller tp and sl what would happen ?
I dont have the money to buy a new ea to test it and i would like to know before if i am mathematically correct so i would be glad for your help.
So if 50 % win and 50 % loss
My first trade is - 60 pipps if i loose i reopen 4 order randomly with 15 pipps tp and sl cause probability for all 4 order is 50% to 50%!
So order possibilty:
1. Order TP SL - 60 pipps
If
Win: open again this same order!
If loss
2. Order TP SL - 15 pipps
3. Order TP SL - 15 pipps
4. Order TP SL - 15 pipps
5. Order TP SL - 15 pipps
And then re-do it:
So one friend told me that possibilities are multiplied: in that case the order possibilities would look like this:
Win: 0.5*60 pipps = 30 pipps average win
Loss:
1) 0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×120 = 3.75 pipps .average if all 5 trades loose
2) 0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×90= 2.81 pipps .average if 4 trades loose and one winns
3) 0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×60= 1.875 pipps . Average if 3 trades loose and two trades win
4) 0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×30 = 0.93 pipps . Average if 2 loose and 3 winn
5) 0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0 = 0 pipps . Average if 1 loose and 4 win
So now we accumulate the average loss and it is:
3.75+2.81+1.875+0.93+0= 9.34 pipps
Average win is = 60*0.5 = 30 pipps
So expactancy is 21.66 pipps + !
We will gain pipps the more often we play!
As i said!! I am very bad a math! Or besser said probabilty calculation so can u correct me if im wrong or is it ok what i wrote ? If yes i could let code an ea in that kind of thing
So i wanted to ask if probability is calculated like this ?
all the best
Has anyone ever made profit from a 50 / 50 winrate with 1:1 profit and loss ?
Or better said is it possible to make a 50 / 50 winrate with expaction 1:1 profotable ?
Hear is my idea, but im not quite good at math so maybe you can help me find out if im right or wrong, i would really appreciate it
I did an ea that trades randomly and i found out that win loss ratio is almost everytime 50:50 with (tp/sl 1:1).... now im trying to calculate this:
If i set one order!->
Tp 60 points
Sl 60 points
My chances to win are
50% win
50% loss
If i now retrade my loss in the full amount: but with smaller tp and sl what would happen ?
I dont have the money to buy a new ea to test it and i would like to know before if i am mathematically correct so i would be glad for your help.
So if 50 % win and 50 % loss
My first trade is - 60 pipps if i loose i reopen 4 order randomly with 15 pipps tp and sl cause probability for all 4 order is 50% to 50%!
So order possibilty:
1. Order TP SL - 60 pipps
If
Win: open again this same order!
If loss
2. Order TP SL - 15 pipps
3. Order TP SL - 15 pipps
4. Order TP SL - 15 pipps
5. Order TP SL - 15 pipps
And then re-do it:
So one friend told me that possibilities are multiplied: in that case the order possibilities would look like this:
Win: 0.5*60 pipps = 30 pipps average win
Loss:
1) 0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×120 = 3.75 pipps .average if all 5 trades loose
2) 0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×90= 2.81 pipps .average if 4 trades loose and one winns
3) 0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×60= 1.875 pipps . Average if 3 trades loose and two trades win
4) 0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×30 = 0.93 pipps . Average if 2 loose and 3 winn
5) 0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0 = 0 pipps . Average if 1 loose and 4 win
So now we accumulate the average loss and it is:
3.75+2.81+1.875+0.93+0= 9.34 pipps
Average win is = 60*0.5 = 30 pipps
So expactancy is 21.66 pipps + !
We will gain pipps the more often we play!
As i said!! I am very bad a math! Or besser said probabilty calculation so can u correct me if im wrong or is it ok what i wrote ? If yes i could let code an ea in that kind of thing
So i wanted to ask if probability is calculated like this ?
all the best