(binned per thread starter's request) Market bottom rotation trad

CAT downtrend behaviour change with shelf stack, likely rotation higher.

Not at all, you are seeing it right but the right answer is a bit more detailed than that. Basically as you pointed out its time window that matters the most. The most important factor today was that ECB delayed the rate hikes, which from the way markets reacted on EUR today looks like was expected to happen much sooner.
The only reason why there isnt a big bearish macro to be placed on EUR is because ECB will still be doing QE over next year period of ITA/ESP drama therefore it wont be as much pressure from droping yields on 2 year bonds, if QE was pulled away straight off today then that would open much stronger bear macro on EUR.
Thing is we already droped a lot on EUR so markets have priced to certain extent Italy in unless which i pointed already...there are surprise things to come which is not very likely. FED also did not deliver much of surprise on dot plot for hikes which means that the gap between FED and ECB is somewhat priced in already too (but not fully). Therefore in my view its a soft bear macro only, but i could be wrong if surprise factors come in play.

The real bombshell that will open huge bear macro on EUR is the one that noone is yet talking about (and wont for next many months) is Greece. Greeks elections are in summer 19 just around when ECB was to suppose consider hiking (or later down the year), but with Greece play turning the way i think it will there is no chance that will happen, which means that markets will get a shock that the rate hikes for 2019 are completely out of window, but that realization will likely only come after Greece elections. So at that time you will have QE removal which will expose yields on Italian and Greece bonds completly naked, and open fear flows if Varoufakis does what i think he will, so then big bear macro will open on EUR, it likely wont last long but it could be very strong. That of course only if Varoufakis does win.

Maybe, but mind that this thread (or at least what is presented from my side) is strictly well researched and backtested stuff. You could assume that that area might give a bounce but without actually doing proper research i wouldnt use such thing as actual method, not before its being properly stress tested.

AUDCAD potential pullback leg rotation after impulsive move.

There are many different ways you could answer that question, and it will very much depend on personal factors what you are looking in this whole things (is it profits, is it for tech to become mainstream, is to game theory of markets....). Since you directed question to me ill give you my personal view on it, and that view is somewhat objective from my point. Just a heads up....my answer will be one confusing piece of data, but thats how i see it.

From game theory perspective, in free markets one can do whatever the hell they want. If you want to make BCH from BTC fork, go and do it, if people find it useful so be it, let it exist along with all the other currencies. But just because thats the case from free market perspective it doesnt mean one should now eliminate the BTC for whatever the reasons given, from game theory perspective markets will decide which one is more useful, time will tell. Therefore from my view, let them both exists.

From tech perspective i want to see blockchain to spread around the world like a black plague. Why? Because it is one of the most revoluationary freedom based information technologies protocols to be ever invented (having place right besides Guttenbergs printing press and TCIP/HTTP protocols). But becouse blockchain space is small we need to push it with the least friction as possible, spending time in BTC/BCH is creating friction inside the space and spending unneccesary time where better things could be discussed or worked on, especially for someone like Roger who has been one of major contributors to the space who over past 2 years is wasting a lot of time defending himself or his views in the whole argument, where his input could be much more better spent elsewhere.
All biggest empires in the world history ended because of internal friction, i wish this BTC/BCH thing goes away quickly before it balloons too much to be potential end maker.

From development side perspective, i am not routing for neither of the teams behind each currency, because both teams are far bellow the range of some other projects currently developed on EOS / ETH side, both BTC and BCH teams are too stagnant.

From investment side if you had to force me to pick either one of them i would defenetly pick BTC, simply because it is currently still an index for the whole crypto space which means that the risk on investment is far lower than on most other cryptos. But i dont hold either of them as said before.

From moral perspective i couldnt care less which of those currencies is "real". No matter what was written in initial paper, all i care is which is better from technological point and development side and also risk side. If you showed me initial papers of how Karl Benz imagined best car should look like and you gave me Elon Musks Tesla 3 in front of me, i couldnt care less what Benz had in mind, ill go with what is in current time the best possible technology and fits the market. Same goes for crypto. So in short, the moral side doesnt really affect my bais to either of them, completly neutral.



I wish the whole debate would just end because Roger is great to listen to his input on the space, but when he is in discussion about BTC/BCH topics he becomes way too defensive and aggressive and just the whole discussions usually dont have a overall good info value. I do enjoy the whole problem as an experiment though, becouse the BTC/BCH argument makes any politics or elections look like a freaking childs playground. The subject of the BTC/BCH is 100 times more complex than any political debates i have ever witnessed, because no matter how many arguments you hear from each side the whole topic still stays very complicated.

From investing perspective due to exposure of BCH i believe that in future it will move upwards due to that and overall exposure to whole crypto sector but personally i find much more interesting cryptos / tokens elsewhere to invest in, starting with Augur for example. And Decreed coin with their Politea / referendum system as not just interesting but a technology of how voting systems will look in future, so i invested in that one just to support developers along side as having it as investment.

MIK could be solid quality play if HH is baked.

WMT potential downtrend behaviour change if HH is baked with north move.

INTC potential supply takeout.

INTC solid squeeze, always disappointing to see 0 DD go in direction without being in a trade.

I would suggest you to take a look at Augur if you need some new investment ideas for future. Augur will revolutionize the way markets function in very near future as official release is this year most likely and the market cap for that project should pretty much be in billions if not 10s of billions. The future of markets is not in instruments like EURUSD where 1000s of different factors are priced into the chaos of an instrument, but rather in specialized markets that only bare 1 single or maybe few at max variables, and Augur is one of very few platforms to lead with that.

MIK lucky dodge there, had SL at 09 and the price was sliding at 10 for a while, closed in gains afterall.

As pointed yesterday emerging markets likely to come on the bear side of play again as the FED hiked rates. RUB MXN and CNH all forming new legs with the lead taken on ARS side which is taking huge drop, altough likely not primarily due to FED.

GJ potential rotating now

i'm already in NJ rotating.

yes, due to betting worldcup, i was reading abt augur last 2 weeks. was planning to put some money in. high potential. That dereed, i also need to research.

as always, thanks JP!

AMD parabolic crash, good entry area on rejection there.

Potential but there is no momentum move into supply, careful there make sure you cut position quick if it goes agaisnt you. Having momentum wind behind you is always a priority.

US markets are restricted to sports bets, Augur by default will open huge huge capital area there (becouse its simply impossible for goverment to oversee and regulate it, just like torrent space). So....just one reason why it will blow into large numbers.

VRX last play of the day, if shorts give up, its explosive move to come, bulls are tightening. Downtrend behavour change with shelf stacking into tightening progression. Always great to see last play of the day to shine trough the canisters of previous daily setups.

this fail is probably due to there's only 1 high on the left side. indeed, neither symmetrical/dense nor micro shelf (a huge shelf)......

in hindsight, i was quite confident this would work, since the momentum seemed quite strong.

the only thing good is that i exit earlier.

Well sadly this one ended with flop. No squeeze, sold at break even. Ending the day with tickets for the show but the entertainer missed the arena.