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(binned per thread starter's request) Market bottom rotation trad

  • #4,121
  • Jun 13, 2018 10:23am Jun 13, 2018 10:23am
CWH missed this one, down trend behaviour change with shelf stack.
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  • #4,122
  • Jun 13, 2018 10:48am Jun 13, 2018 10:48am
i did exactly same trade as Wachturm. exactly, the SL was lucky to survive the bearish spikes.

need to remind myself of limit orders......

Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Was eyeing this one as well, you could also try to get filled on the lows of micro shelf for better RR on this one. If micro shelf rejections are strong and clean then what i do is after placing initial entry (which would be in similar area to your) i add another entry on retrace back to micro shelf lows (which makes added risk exposure) and then if price goes back up the upper entry is closed at break even and you carry only lower entry which has far better RR. {image}
  • #4,123
  • Jun 13, 2018 11:04am Jun 13, 2018 11:04am
HRB neutral stack. Trying with short.
  • #4,124
  • Jun 13, 2018 11:22am Jun 13, 2018 11:22am
Quoting Wachturm
potential long play on DAX ( 10 sec chart ) ? {image}
tried to catch it on the first pullback, didnt work ... was some kind of complex rotation with multiple clearouts

missed the whole show
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  • #4,125
  • Jun 13, 2018 11:26am Jun 13, 2018 11:26am
Quoting janpec1000
Crude oil potential upward rotation.
Crude is likely setting for upwards move, bullish accumulation after impulse move. Got some long in, will add if it breaks above the highs.
  • #4,126
  • Jun 13, 2018 11:32am Jun 13, 2018 11:32am
Quoting Wachturm
{quote} tried to catch it on the first pullback, didnt work ... was some kind of complex rotation with multiple clearouts missed the whole show {image}
Fair attempt. Mind that overall in all the setups presented , especially supply takeout there are two factors. One is to be early, the other is to wait for whole full area to be cleared so that you get "confirmation" for entry. Both of those concepts are oposite to each other, so overall its about balance and relativity of situation of each specific structure that should push trader to decide with which option should be played (or which of those two should be given priority).
So in the structure you pointed it would be better to play it from early stage, simply because at that point there was the most symmetric part of structure to be played, if squeeze was to start, it should have started from there. The downside of playing it from there (and not waiting for whole area supply to be first taken out) is that the overhead supply might deliver a bounce down, thus it should be played with tight risk, but overall that was the way to play this structure, highlighted it on image.

In rotations the whole point is trying to catch rotation on its earliest stage of making.
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  • #4,127
  • Jun 13, 2018 11:38am Jun 13, 2018 11:38am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Crude is likely setting for upwards move, bullish accumulation after impulse move. Got some long in, will add if it breaks above the highs.
Crude long stopped on break even. Solid squeeze but it flopped.
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  • #4,128
  • Jun 13, 2018 11:52am Jun 13, 2018 11:52am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Fair attempt. Mind that overall in all the setups presented , especially supply takeout there are two factors. One is to be early, the other is to wait for whole full area to be cleared so that you get "confirmation" for entry. Both of those concepts are oposite to each other, so overall its about balance and relativity of situation of each specific structure that should push trader to decide with which option should be played (or which of those two should be given priority). So in the structure you pointed it would be better to play it...
ah ok I see it now.. thanks
  • #4,129
  • Jun 13, 2018 12:06pm Jun 13, 2018 12:06pm
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  • #4,130
  • Jun 13, 2018 12:22pm Jun 13, 2018 12:22pm
Quoting Wachturm
{image}
ridiculous spread, but small 1R gain
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  • #4,131
  • Edited 12:45pm Jun 13, 2018 12:34pm | Edited 12:45pm
Quoting janpec1000
Potential play today in US dollar, FOMC later on with heavily expected rate hike could potentially offer a short play on dollar (buy rumor sell the news), will play on release later on in evening with short attempt 1 R play (SL about 50-70 pips, TP same). After that eyes on rate trajectory report if there are any added agressive projections for 2019 rate hikes its possible to see dollar to go on a longer bullish march. If no changes are made, its neutral...nothing to see. Basically its markets digesting the new FED chairmans tilt for how hawkish...
Play on USD in half hour as pointed early today with bear play (EU bull). Likely incoming rate hike that is already baked in price. Also playing AUDUSD with break even SL ahead of it.
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  • #4,132
  • Jun 13, 2018 1:07pm Jun 13, 2018 1:07pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Play on USD in half hour as pointed early today with bear play (EU bull). Likely incoming rate hike that is already baked in price. Also playing AUDUSD with break even SL ahead of it. {image}
EURUSD stoped out for 0.7 R loss. Very muted reaction from markets, but overall USD bullish afterall.
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  • #4,133
  • Jun 13, 2018 1:19pm Jun 13, 2018 1:19pm
EURUSD potential supply takeout, strong liquidity eyes on supply. Same play as USDCAD 1 month or so ago. When liquidity kicks in sharks are more likely to hunt.
Eyes on symmetry of HL prints, if bulls gave up its likely no play.
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  • #4,134
  • Jun 13, 2018 1:35pm Jun 13, 2018 1:35pm
Quoting janpec1000
EURUSD potential supply takeout, strong liquidity eyes on supply. Same play as USDCAD 1 month or so ago. When liquidity kicks in sharks are more likely to hunt. Eyes on symmetry of HL prints, if bulls gave up its likely no play. {image}
No play, dollar bears gave up no supply retest.
Tomorrow potential plays in emerging markets on currency and bond side.
  • #4,135
  • Jun 13, 2018 2:00pm Jun 13, 2018 2:00pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} No play, dollar bears gave up no supply retest. Tomorrow potential plays in emerging markets on currency and bond side.
And one asset class that doesnt give a effing thing about what FED does. Resistance towards reserve currency strenght, but at same time a magnet for capital flight from EMs, two variables that make for best potential performing asset in next 2-3 years.
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  • #4,136
  • Jun 13, 2018 2:04pm Jun 13, 2018 2:04pm
SBUX rotation in place.
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  • #4,137
  • Jun 13, 2018 2:09pm Jun 13, 2018 2:09pm
Quoting janpec1000
SBUX rotation in place. {image}
SBUX this one got baked quickly after being posted.
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  • #4,138
  • Jun 13, 2018 2:35pm Jun 13, 2018 2:35pm
AUDUSD
  • #4,139
  • Jun 13, 2018 2:44pm Jun 13, 2018 2:44pm
Quoting janpec1000
AUDUSD
AUDUSD longs sold , rotation baked on pullback leg after HH bake. Deeper pullback, but the context is what matters, dollar gains are too strong compared to how likely the rate hike was to come.
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  • #4,140
  • Jun 13, 2018 2:48pm Jun 13, 2018 2:48pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Play on USD in half hour as pointed early today with bear play (EU bull). Likely incoming rate hike that is already baked in price. Also playing AUDUSD with break even SL ahead of it. {image}
Initial view held true afterall....rate hike to either be delivered on bear USD side or corrected, which currently looks like it is. EMs under pressure, but EURO not much as no downside is to come from it, especially if no gifts come from Italy.
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