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  • #3,821
  • Jun 5, 2018 11:49am Jun 5, 2018 11:49am
Quoting charvo
Hi, Janpec, only when you have a few bored minutes, please take a look at this i am testing your methods everyday in forextester. and it is suffering from one situation: the peaceful time, the momentum-less period, when price doesn't like going up or down, just hanging there, then our trades often fail. of course, overall the method works amazingly great! this problem is not due to the method's fault, instead, the lack of volatility is the killer of most traders....... i need to put a very tight restraint on risk (stoploss) to get thru low-volatility...
Hm that is rather complex question, the thing is that it isnt all just about volatility. Why some setups work really great and some not it depends very much on what pattern are you tracking and honestly low / high volatility really doesnt play much of a role, what does play a role is clean strong momentum (which is very different to volatility).
You should exclude Asian session of trading, but other than that there really is no need to have any other volatility or liquidity based rules for excluding anything (other than holidays or such things).
For many patterns explained in thread, however momentum is a big factor that makes certain patterns work really great (pullback leg rotations, continuation plays) if there really is some strong momentum drive thats pushing the markets, a simple filter to note if markets are under heavy momentum is how clean impulsive legs are. For example if you are in strong bull momentum and bullish impulsive legs are very clean wthout any strong bear retraces, then you want to focus on bull plays as its very likely that under such conditions plays will deliver more juice. If momentum is not clean chances are those plays will under deliver.

Meanwhile for supply or demand takeouts there really is no need to have major restrictions in terms of volatility , however it is true that it does help that in strongly volatilite markets those patterns have extra chance to work due to increase of participation on SL side.
For example in takeouts and squeezes it will be far more important the strenght of symmetry and condensity of zone rather than volatility.

Also to note, when volatility significantly decreases and tightens that actually creates opportunity for a squeeze play so no point excluding yourself from participation there. As you can see bid ask stacks on this thread are example of that, usually after volatility significantly tightents it results in explosive move, thus one should take advantage of it.

As to guessing volatility there is only one way to do that, which is to gain substential "world tick" knoweldge (macro economics, politics, and all the rest that ticks the markets) to understand ahead what is to expect. No other way to go about that. With other words if you want to expect ahead that 2008 will have massive explosion of volatility you better learn all about derivate markets, MBSes, interest rates, housing markets etc. Is it worth it? For anyone serious yes. Should it be priority? No.
Price structures are priority and learning / practice trade managment.

Good to see that you are testing it out, thats how it should be done. I would highly suggest you to do the practice in equities if you can on demo acc, in my opinion its even better than FX, because you get quite decent amount of play and meanwhile you also practice trade managment on live trades.
  • #3,822
  • Jun 5, 2018 11:50am Jun 5, 2018 11:50am
Quoting janpec1000
EXPE down trend behaviour change with shelving potential up move.
EXPE delivering blasting move. Sold a bit too early perhaps.
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  • #3,823
  • Jun 5, 2018 11:55am Jun 5, 2018 11:55am
Hi, Janpec, this question has been hanging in my head for many days.

normally, price movement looks quite random to newbie (or even oldbie). it is hardly see geometrically well-defined shapes.
but occasionally, when geometrical-defined shapes like rectangular or triangle (wedge) show up, setups are often found in these shapes.

my question is why/how would a wedge be formed? is it due to during that period, there is no newcomers (neither seller nor buyer). price is merely traveling between two similar size of existing short and long positions, and bounced back and forth? or in other words, what made the price movement so similar to a bouncing ball in a perfect Newton-physics circumstances?

of coz, in the end, big fish jumps in, changes price behavior, and breakouts the wedge. i only understand this.......

many thanks!
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  • #3,824
  • Jun 5, 2018 12:02pm Jun 5, 2018 12:02pm
Some pullback leg rotation setups after impulsive legs (all bull setups).
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  • #3,825
  • Jun 5, 2018 12:18pm Jun 5, 2018 12:18pm
Quoting charvo
Hi, Janpec, this question has been hanging in my head for many days. normally, price movement looks quite random to newbie (or even oldbie). it is hardly see geometrically well-defined shapes. but occasionally, when geometrical-defined shapes like rectangular or triangle (wedge) show up, setups are often found in these shapes. my question is why/how would a wedge be formed? is it due to during that period, there is no newcomers (neither seller nor buyer). price is merely traveling between two similar size of existing short and long positions, and...
Thats a good question Charvo. Generally market moves in the flows, but as the symmetry of behaviour is formed it starts to create condensed zones of opinion / participation, so the stronger the symmetry gets the more exagurated those zones become.
This thread is focusing primarily on symmetry of behaviour and not a geometrical symmetry because larger players that are building positions under accumulation usually tend to follow behaviour to be consistent and not particular price key zones since if you are building sized position you likely wont be able to enter at your "perfect" price area. And if you do substential statistical analysis you can confirm that indeed the symmetry of behaviour when behaviour is very consistent and symmetrical is what really forms the most impulsive momentums and key rotations in the market, not geometrical flat or trendlines by themselves.

Thing is that exactly confirming on specific continuation setup what forms its perfect symmetry is quite hard to tell, simply because to do that you would need 100% clear market data (order flow plus order book, plus dark pool orders) which is for retail trader nearly impossible, but what you can do is track setups over and over again while observing level 2 and price behaviour and it does stand out that majority of very clean geometrical setups are usually formed in very strong and clean momentum markets and are usually the result of consistent accumulation along the momentum, while the drops (in case of bull setups) are basically a result of profit taking and not agressive shorting. So in strong bull momentum market, aggressive buyers will take any dip as a chance to buy and keep forming the bottom line of symmetry while the profit takers sell their profits but since buyers are overpowering it then keeps tightening the structure, and if structure is very clean geometrically you can be sure that it isnt just you that see that, there are thousands of other traders who focus on that, and once it pops, breakout longs pile in.
In nature its simple fact the more obvious the symmetry the more animals will see it.

But in general you should never think about markets as that one "line in sight to go" mechanism. Its thousands of different views and intentions that over time form symmetry until that symmetry is obvious to many, and then the masses focus on that same zone of interest which at the end causes huge ballistic move.
With other words, why did that structure bounces on second high / low could be 100s of factors who bought or sold why and where, but once it formed third high the symmetry got more obvious which then starts to formulate change of flows, and once the next highs and lows even more confirmed...and so on and on.

At the end even with strong market positioning data you would still find it very hard to tell why exactly that structure developed the way it did, and thats not your job as trader, your job (acording to this thread teachings) is to spot symmetry and then capitalize on asymmetric rotation bake.


An example would be, if you were to look longing CHF against EUR in 2014-2015, your job is not to guess if at floor price of SNB is EURCHF really going to bounce and form support or not and then further form strong symmetry, your task is to wait for symmetry to be established and once it got so heavily established then to think...what could happen if that symmetry breaks, and where to long the CHF.
  • #3,826
  • Jun 5, 2018 12:25pm Jun 5, 2018 12:25pm
COP on track for potential rotation.
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  • #3,827
  • Jun 5, 2018 12:30pm Jun 5, 2018 12:30pm
NFX likely setting for rotation, clean momentum ahead of structure with tightening already taking place.
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  • #3,828
  • Jun 5, 2018 12:35pm Jun 5, 2018 12:35pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Thats a good question Charvo. Generally market moves in the flows, but as the symmetry of behaviour is formed it starts to create condensed zones of opinion / participation, so the stronger the symmetry gets the more exagurated those zones become. This thread is focusing primarily on symmetry of behaviour and not a geometrical symmetry because larger players that are building positions under accumulation usually tend to follow behaviour to be consistent and not particular price key zones since if you are building sized position you likely...

And in the end game theory is the major component of figuring out any future moves. Today Mexico announced tariffs against US on certain exports / imports, why do you think it is the Peso that actually droped, and not the USD? Simple question, many economists and market participants will get it wrong, if you know right answer you are ahead of most.
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  • #3,829
  • Jun 5, 2018 12:44pm Jun 5, 2018 12:44pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} And in the end game theory is the major component of figuring out any future moves. Today Mexico announced tariffs against US on certain exports / imports, why do you think it is the Peso that actually droped, and not the USD? Simple question, many economists and market participants will get it wrong, if you know right answer you are ahead of most. {image}
If I had to take a gander it's because the united states has a 65 billion trade deficit with mexico, which actually isn't that large. It's more because mexico will piss trump off with that move and the mexico is wayyyy more dependent on the us than the us is on mexico. So united states will retaliate with tariffs that will hurt mexico way more than theirs hurt us
instagram: stepbystepforex
  • #3,830
  • Jun 5, 2018 12:49pm Jun 5, 2018 12:49pm
FOSL on rotation setup.
  • #3,831
  • Jun 5, 2018 12:50pm Jun 5, 2018 12:50pm
Quoting rafael5643
{quote} If I had to take a gander it's because the united states has a 65 billion trade deficit with mexico, which actually isn't that large. It's more because mexico will piss trump off with that move and the mexico is wayyyy more dependent on the us than the us is on mexico. So united states will retaliate with tariffs that will hurt mexico way more than theirs hurt us
Pretty much summed it up. From game theoretic point its a far weaker player trying to play aggressively against much stronger player, that never works out good for smaller one. There are many reasons to count in US - Mexico example. One major factor to add in is that on EM side Mexico is already in very big trouble, and by todays measures its only digging hole deeper.
Problem is...the whole game is rigged. To play current game right under Sun Tzu rules, Mexico should play it from humble side (take the beating and not do anything against it), but simply state politics requires politicans to counter with moves if they or state is being threatened. Its a rigged game with expected rigged result to come, and ofcourse everyone in US deep state knows it.
  • #3,832
  • Jun 5, 2018 1:22pm Jun 5, 2018 1:22pm
Quoting janpec1000
FOSL on rotation setup.
FOSL sold some for gains the rest break even.
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  • #3,833
  • Jun 5, 2018 2:31pm Jun 5, 2018 2:31pm
ARRY last play of day, its slow ticker so not a prefered setup to play , most likely will only take partial entry.
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  • #3,834
  • Jun 5, 2018 2:37pm Jun 5, 2018 2:37pm
Quoting janpec1000
ARRY last play of day, its slow ticker so not a prefered setup to play , most likely will only take partial entry. {image}

ARRY took quick pop minute later.
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  • #3,835
  • Jun 5, 2018 2:38pm Jun 5, 2018 2:38pm
About it.
  • #3,836
  • Jun 5, 2018 10:29pm Jun 5, 2018 10:29pm
Dear Janpec, so i have a derivative question.

what you meant is actually the symmetry of behavior is usually due to big fish accumulating positions (as well as exiting,likely)?

like the chart shows, big fish has started to accumulate positions as early as in green circle. I used to think the big fish start to entering right before the clearout.
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Quoting janpec1000
{quote} This thread is focusing primarily on symmetry of behaviour and not a geometrical symmetry because larger players that are building positions under accumulation usually tend to follow behaviour to be consistent and not particular price key zones since if you are building sized position you likely wont be able to enter at your "perfect" price area.
  • #3,837
  • Jun 6, 2018 2:43am Jun 6, 2018 2:43am
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  • #3,838
  • Jun 6, 2018 3:49am Jun 6, 2018 3:49am
planing and execution
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  • #3,839
  • Jun 6, 2018 4:15am Jun 6, 2018 4:15am
Eyes on MXN potentially marking new lows today. Looking for continuation plays.
  • #3,840
  • Jun 6, 2018 4:16am Jun 6, 2018 4:16am
Quoting charvo
Dear Janpec, so i have a derivative question. what you meant is actually the symmetry of behavior is usually due to big fish accumulating positions (as well as exiting,likely)? like the chart shows, big fish has started to accumulate positions as early as in green circle. I used to think the big fish start to entering right before the clearout.{image} {quote}
In case of clearout its big players accumulating as you pointed out, BUT, then the bigger player comes and squeezes out the "smaller" big players by putting big market order in and forming a clearout. It is usually not the same player that is forming accumulation and clearout, altough it could be the case sometimes.
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