{quote} Jan, we could trade them as continuation, but as "bottom rotation" we could add a micro clearout for higher probability. What do you think?
Ignored
Theoretically yes, but practically its a no. The reason is becouse majority of proper strong bid ask stacks result in a very quick squeeze move, usually within a 1-2 seconds, so you cannot get a fill on order as continuation there, so that means the stack should be traded with entering at best possible entry for minimized risk and maximized RR (ask stack on highs, bid stack on lows). The example you saw on EURUSD was more of exception as price didnt have quick pop (which is why also setup didnt work). Therefore the stacks should be played as outlined on explanations and not as continuation setup with break entry.
The only decent play today was on USDCAD continuation not long ago, along with macro direction (macro explained on previous pages last week as Crude oil play - CAD). Overall mid term macro target for USDCAD is around 1.315ish area. Thats about it for today.
Since the market open today, Italian 2 year yield marking heavy move into 1% (unbearable) area. Markets are pricing in heavily with hammering current political moves in Italy, and this will likely continue further over next weeks, with focus on 10 y and 2 y bonds . Whole thing is pretty much baked to become a huge derail on bond markets and to extent on EUR currency side, but the real play is actually in bonds, thats where the decision making is. Once the yields are cornered in next weeks / months, the whole play becomes a bent over-roll towards ECB, either doing that or facing catastrophic effects. Global markets know that Italian banks cannot hold the bonds that are currently held by ECB, nor can Italy afford huge hike in debt yield rates, thus Italy is currently being priced in under position of weakness and the more pressure against EU is from Italy the more markets will respond. June 2 currently marked as call for protests, markets will and already are responding.
The reality is, this is all just drama, no moves can be pulled from Italian side, but from trading perspective that doesnt matter, all it matters which moves will likely be taken by each player, and how will players react, thus how will market respond. There is not much juice in debt markets unless one has access to good derivate broker, so the play outlined on this thread is mostly targeted on EURUSD / EURCHF currency side, as there juice can be easily extracted, but its far more harder to time it well, timing it from bonds side is easy (now-and onwards) timing it on currency side is more complex.
EURO markets in panic mode again with everything in a shortfall mode. Dollar supply takeout also fueling oil to the fire on EUR side. EURUSD fast approaching initial 1.4X target, and the short selling on Italian bonds is absolutely exploding trough the roof, 2 year yields marking a 2.5% area today (200% increase from yesterday).
The only good thing Italy is getting out of this is weaker EURO. As pointed before many times, the more markets react bear to all this the better buying oportunity will become in near future, or if scenario two comes in play with EURO exit for Italy it opens opposite bear play and trigger of financial crisis in EU markets.
(binned per thread starter's request) Market bottom rotation trad
