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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #46,841
  • May 24, 2018 11:50am May 24, 2018 11:50am
Quoting theDHT
Trump Calls Off Historic Meeting With North Korea's Kim never a dull moment with our fearless leader! PM's are poppin'... wonder how much gas is in that tank! for my money, i'll exit my long at 1313 if we get there! good luck

on second thought... she may be stalling out here... clever to take some chips off the table and trail the balance closely.

bias should be short for the next leg down

charts to follow
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #46,842
  • May 24, 2018 12:06pm May 24, 2018 12:06pm
Probability of Demand Growth Resistance 1309.44
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1527181361
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  • #46,843
  • May 24, 2018 12:32pm May 24, 2018 12:32pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} on second thought... she may be stalling out here... clever to take some chips off the table and trail the balance closely. bias should be short for the next leg down charts to follow

for the last week or so, the price action of XAU has been unnatural... Im sure many people noticed this already

the interplay between DX and XAU since 5.16.18 has built up a pretty significant divergence, one which (IMHO) creates significant downside risk to the metal.

frankly, its wound up so tight that any move south could be very sharp

additionally, both these assets are close to levels where they "should" flip

on a longer term basis, the fact that we cracked and closed under 1313 on a weekly basis (last bar) strongly suggests that we now have a defacto bearish bias (big money players etc), with the next major support at the 1270 region

if these channels hold up, we can get there in a hurry!

XAU 60
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DXY 60
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play safe!

90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #46,844
  • May 24, 2018 2:09pm May 24, 2018 2:09pm
Are you tracking the XAUUSD? The XAUUSD market is inching towards a resistance trendline on the D1 time frame. A bounce off the trendline or a southward set-up at the 1313/801320.45 zone is likely to provide a feasible sell trading opportunity much likely next week.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #46,845
  • Edited 3:40pm May 24, 2018 3:28pm | Edited 3:40pm
The above analysis refers to XAUUSD

I see the line at 1313 and it was my original target, but I have closed out a majority of my long position around 1307... Been in it since the mid 1280s, so I call this counter trend trade a win

Frankly the price action is making me too nervous to hold on (as shown above), so I bow out a bit early !

. . and we all know that pigs get slaughtered...

This looks like a good place to start building the short

Play safe
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #46,846
  • May 24, 2018 10:15pm May 24, 2018 10:15pm
Anyone has intel on what caused this spike in gold yesterday
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  • #46,847
  • May 24, 2018 10:45pm May 24, 2018 10:45pm
Frankly , both Trump and Kim Jong Un are playing forex. It is true 100%. So they are big player and they are sometime playing a big. It is not 1st time we saw.
They are big affecting to XAU market, so we must aware of it.
  • #46,848
  • May 25, 2018 12:52am May 25, 2018 12:52am
North Korea Comes Crawling Back: Stresses "Desperate Need" For Summit "Whenever, However"

the seesaw continues to seesaw...

last night PM's popped

if our fearless commander in chief comes back to the table, we may have the reversal... and theres a weekend coming through

for sure Mnuchin and his buddies at the ESF/Goldman are playing the markets with these headlines...

remember his comments to the press about wanting a weak USD back on jan 24th? only to be reversed 24 hours later by Trump

good times all around!

90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #46,849
  • May 25, 2018 2:51am May 25, 2018 2:51am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} agreed, a minor retracement and then impulse down to the next major support (1265/1270) would be ideal before the next fed statement in a few weeks fwiw, i have pending orders waiting between 1303 and 1311 (sell limit, with a $10-$15 stop loss) depending on how she plays, if we break down through major support, theres a risk that the floor may drop out as it would expose the 1230-1200 region as a first step. on a weekly basis, this market can easily hit the 1180 region and yet remain bullish, for that would simply be a retest of the resistance...

to visualize my point, the attached is a long range chart

important that despite all the news of war etc, we have failed to exceed the July, 2016 high, which was caused by a crisis in the EM complex, not war... therefore keep your eyes on TSY and the EMFX/EMB complex, it'll likely be the next real trigger; my money is on a sovereign default in Turkey as the opening salvo

we can see the lines very clearly... therefore what happens in the next few weeks is critical

if the DXY continues to rally and the inverse correlation with XAU continues on course, the major supports areas are at 1270, 1230, 1200, then 1180

if we get to 1150, chances are we will spike lower and breach the $1000 handle... however, i suspect this would be short lived.

IMPORTANT: note the massive (almost $70 X 2 = $140) intra-day fakey that occurred on 11/9/16 (its highlighted)... it was clearly rejected at the blue resistance level, however the lesson is that its not enough to get the direction right... you can be correct and still blow your account if you over trade... and these things tend to happen when the MM's are setting up for a big move

XAUUSD Weekly

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90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #46,850
  • May 25, 2018 3:04am May 25, 2018 3:04am
Quoting theDHT
...which was caused by a crisis in the EM complex, not war... therefore keep your eyes on TSY and the EMFX/EMB complex, it'll likely be the next real trigger; ...
Noob here, what is EM complex? and other acronyms here Trying to learn and understand all this.
  • #46,851
  • May 25, 2018 3:10am May 25, 2018 3:10am
Quoting arjasepp
{quote} Noob here, what is EM complex? and other acronyms here Trying to learn and understand all this.

EM = emerging market

specifically, watch the EM Currency space to see how badly they continue to be battered

this has knock on impact on their debt servicing capacity (therefore EM Bonds), a significant portion of this is denominated in USD (as far as international pension funds and banks are concerned)

the key is the US FED and monetary policy decisions as these will determine the course of the yield curve on the US treasury bond market (10 year benchmark yield = TSY)

which has a correlation to the valuation of the US Dollar (DXY)

encourage you to read this:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...f-debt-matures

and this:

https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1712.pdf

and take it from there



in summary, and to quote the great biggy smalls: "its all about the Benjamins"!!

Inserted Video
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #46,852
  • May 25, 2018 8:40am May 25, 2018 8:40am
Quoting JayBlankfein
Anyone has intel on what caused this spike in gold yesterday {image}
From my perspective for Gold it was just technical thing and falling USD helped it, as there was WRB hidden gap, created on 15th of May. Yesterday the gap was filled.
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-._.-
  • #46,853
  • May 25, 2018 8:45am May 25, 2018 8:45am
Here is a 5 minute chart of that WRB period - exactly where is the hidden gap?
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  • #46,854
  • May 25, 2018 8:52am May 25, 2018 8:52am
Quoting SunTrader
Here is a 5 minute chart of that WRB period - exactly where is the hidden gap? {image}
SunTrader, you are showing 23th of May picture. I was reffering to 15th of May.
-._.-
  • #46,855
  • May 25, 2018 9:20am May 25, 2018 9:20am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} on second thought... she may be stalling out here... clever to take some chips off the table and trail the balance closely. bias should be short for the next leg down charts to follow

closed out the entire long position

limit sell has been triggered as well, will add to this next week i think... NFP should be fun

happy long weekend

90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #46,856
  • May 25, 2018 10:25am May 25, 2018 10:25am
They playing forex actually

'Everybody plays games' Trump says June 12 summit may happen

Less than 24 hours after canceling the much-anticipated summit with Kim Jong-un and getting back to who has more “massive” nukes talk, Donald Trump took a U-turn and tweeted about peace and prosperity for North Korea.

"Very good news to receive the warm and productive statement from North Korea. We will soon see where it will lead, hopefully to long and enduring prosperity and peace. Only time (and talent) will tell!" Trump twitted.
Investing is SIMPLE but NOT EASY
  • #46,857
  • May 25, 2018 10:53am May 25, 2018 10:53am
Quoting darksize
{quote} SunTrader, you are showing 23th of May picture. I was reffering to 15th of May.
Sorry about that, moves were so similar I hadn't noticed you said 15th as well in your original post. Same question now for this 5 minute chart image - I see no gap? -:
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  • #46,858
  • May 25, 2018 12:14pm May 25, 2018 12:14pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Sorry about that, moves were so similar I hadn't noticed you said 15th as well in your original post. Same question now for this 5 minute chart image - I see no gap? -: {image}
WRB Gap on the picture bellow. Are you pointing out on the resistence point in the middle of the 1h move ?
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  • #46,859
  • May 26, 2018 10:02am May 26, 2018 10:02am
Quoting Visionary
{quote} Mr MoneyZilla today is the 26th of April 1 month since our 12 month challenge as began. As i have said i will only post here 1 time each month my result Here my result so far. ensure you show your screen shot and provide your investor PW to the forum each month for verification. For no scamming will be allowed. You may change the PW afterward each month. Best you focus on trading and stop looking on dicks and posting rubbish as well for after 4 months you have 9%DD and 7% profit and i have 4.x%DD and 13% profit after 1 month note* i didn't...

Good day forum and Moneyzilla. Today is 26th of May and I am someone who try my best to keep my word once spoken. For my word is what I live by. MoneyZilla you have yet to put up your 1 year challenge details for the gold forum to verify only mouth talk. So please do so since you are the one who have challenge me.

This month was a perfect trading win month for me, with DD being -1.53 and gain being 10.88%. Which mean I didn't lost 1 trade this month with a perfect win record

My login details for the forum to verify Acc# 1660931 and Investor Password May26ZILLA
I also have my Explore attach.

10 Months to go MoneyZilla, you are free to back out at any time and save yourself from any further embarrassment. Or just take 5 pips trades, base on what you claim I do since 100-1000 pips trades are not working out for you. See you and the forum on the 26th of June for my next update. Have great weekend everyone.

Ronda we went to 1282.xx how is those buys doing? Pipsy you still hedging your 1354.xx buys as well?
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  • #46,860
  • May 26, 2018 3:59pm May 26, 2018 3:59pm
Quoting darksize
{quote} WRB Gap on the picture bellow. Are you pointing out on the resistence point in the middle of the 1h move ? {image}
I was pointing out no gap in 5 minute candles. But in meantime I googled WRB Gap and now see what you are referring to that someone came up with. I don't see the purpose for name and designation, but for sure use it if you do. And no I wasn't pointing to mid point resistance of move. I've seen in the past that work and not work. Elliott Wave is my main tool.
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