(binned per thread starter's request) Market bottom rotation trad

No upwards break, sold for small loss the longs from the lows, no further play on supply.

NKTR the best trade of the day, slipped away.

closed it from phone, so just now i am able to show screenshot with it

GTXI completing macro target on off market hours,

On Mondays short term macro watchlist for equities ANTM and XON both considered on bull side if micro setups are printed.

Practical tips to trade management and overall approach

Bellow are highlighted on how should trader understand in what phase market is in and what setup (explained and presented in this thread) one should be putting focus on. Not understanding and adapting to phases will lead to waste of time in front of charts expecting one thing that will likely not come.
Some basic rules:
-continuation and rotation setups along momentum, simply need strong momentum ahead of them. With no strong momentum there is no such thing as trying to expect this setup to appear. If there is no impulsive leg currently in market one shouldnt even be thinking to expect such setup to appear.
-strong rotation setups such as supply or demand takeouts and bottom/ top baking usually comes after significant consistent price drop or rally where there is no significant overhead supply or demand zones and price at the exhaustion of the leg starts to form strong counter trend volatility and forming potential bottom or top.
If there is significant overhead supply or demand (eg very choppy leg with no symmetry) its not wise to expect such setup to form.
-clearout setup needs a strong symmetrical structure with condensed lows or highs in structure to be formed, there is no point in expecting a single low or high to have such process behind it. While it does happen that there is a portion of SL liquidiation behind every market price extreme, the point is, those are not tradeable. Tradeable clearout is targeted one, behind strong structure, thus trader needs to first find such structure in order to expect such setup to form, otherwise its a waste of time.

Some market phase examples and adjusting the view to market changes:







To keep it short and on point:
-think 1-3 steps ahead and try to think what kind of setup could market be forming, based on current market conditions

-use alerts. Do not watch every tick of price while setup is potentially in development, its an easy route to overtrade and jump too quickly. Spot potential interest area where setup might develop into "confirmation phase" and place alert there. Once price reaches it decide if structural setup fits defined factors by then.

-Have specific price in mind already ahead of developed setup to know where entry will be placed, this allows to preapare limit order ahead without being all panicky and setting it while price is already at entry area.

-Once the setup is confirmed, one should have clear price point at where the position will be cut (at least partially), the worst thing is not having any price level in mind and being completly reactive and doing it on the fly, that often results into sticking to large loses.

-Practice cutting loses quicker and quicker. Have a specific rule set at which loss should be cut, and then practice trade after trade cutting position a bit earlier IF there is order flow / price reactions that are going against your initial positioning. For example if being long and price goes strongly down, try to scale out portion of position ahead of your planned level, and then keep repeating that over and over again, the more it is repeated the more trader adapts to order flow and the trade management improves naturally. Nobody is born doing this well, its all in the practice.

-Watch the spreads. This relates to assets that are bid-ask priced only such as equities. Observe at which price levels spreads are tightened and at which are in wider spread, it always points to increase or decrease of certain side on participation. The way ask or bid is positioned based to current price is completly objective info, there is no guessing to be done thus its a good information to follow. For example if price is pushing higher while the ask stays above the price strongly, its simply a very strong buying pressure with significantly low selling interest and potentially many buy market orders flying in. If for example price retraces back into lows / support and suddenly spreads tighten significantly it means that at demand area there is strong pressence of buying (expected) but so is the selling (not expected), which could be key tipping point for demand to be broken in some cases.

Some ask stacks from Friday. Short sold at ask or at bid with 1-2 tick SL, or pending buy stop order above the stack for bull play.

Accumulation setups from Friday of pullback leg rotations. Bull entries on HH bake or at the lows.

Accumulation , pullback leg rotation after impulsive move

There has been already plenty said for this setup this just to sum up things more into points.

Things to consider for trading or validating the setup:
-there should be at minimum 3 highs and lows in structure , but prefered is more than that. This is a must, otherwise one cannot really tell if accumulation process has been happening, since that process requires time to pass by, which by default means price will have higher chance to form some structural extremes over time.

-there are two types of pullback leg rotation setups, one is symmetrical and the other one is asymmetrical on one side. Symmetrical is the strongest one as trader can add to position on few points, while asymmetrical can only be entered on HH bake (for bull play). Symmetrical setup is where highs are progressing lower and lower over time and the lows are progressing slowly higher and higher forming a tightened structure towards left side, while asymmetrical one one side is the setup where highs are progressing lower over time but lows are also progressing lower, in such setup trader can only trade behaviour change on HH bake as its too unpredictable if next low will actually be able to push price back upwards. Both explanations are meant for bullish setup, for bear setup everything should be reversed.

-Its all about behaviour change, the HH bake should be on strong confident momentum.

-The stronger the momentum ahead of structure is the more likely it is that setup will work, momentum has priority focus, not the structure itself.

-There has to be consistency of behaviour in structure in order to trade it. If highs are all over the place once higher next time lower and then again higher, such structure cannot be traded. Highs need to be consistently lower and the more tightening that structure shows the better and the more potential of a squeeze move.

-Know then the behaviour of structure changes drastically as then its no longer need to track the setup on potential development. The voliatlity of highs and lows formations in structure should be somewhat symmetrical, if on current high/ low changes too drastically the accumulation process has stopped and the reversion is taking place.

-Often traders have problems in taking the relativity of trading when it comes to identifying the setups. Questions like this pop up: "where do i start count of impulse leg, how many candles back?". The answer is its all relative to the structure you are looking at. The current tracked X structure, should have at the start of it the impulse leg that is at least the twice the size of overall structural depth.


Some random examples from CADJPY.

USDTRY placed pending on lows of micro shelf but didnt get a fill. TRY in the focus as pointed previously.

USDZAR tracked for potential supply takeout. HL printed.

USDZAR supply taken out, didnt get a fill on long as it didnt retrace after break.

EURGBP

EURGBP rotation baked.

Italy macro already taking play ahead of elections as expected. 2 year and 10 year bonds already taking a nose dive, EUR still somewhat in silence mode but it wont be for long. Once the June kicks in things will start to hit news and markets on risk event play. Lots of drama incoming . Overall mid term EURUSD target is bellow 1.15, if current coalition planned wins, likely target 1.1200-1.1300.

USDCAD on track with alert.

GBPJPY slightly asymmetric structure, will consider the play if HH is baked with momentum.

GBPJPY delivered everything, strong HH bake and a solid momentum move. Only git a 50% position fill, lower pending didnt get in.

USDTRY on soft watch, if structure further develops is potential play.

USDTRY marching higher. 10 y bonds over past 2 weeks taking the strongest hit in last few years as the dropping lira adds quickly to the short term borrowing costs for Turkey. Central bank currently only using words to scare the markets, but without action there is no way to stop the liquidation. Turkeys fate lies on elections in June, a wrong vote is a death sentence.