Why it is possible to predict price movement? | Page 59 | Crypto Craft

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Why it is possible to predict price movement?

  • #1,161
  • May 6, 2018 7:42am May 6, 2018 7:42am
CJ I expect the same movement on UJ as you shown on your chart but I don't understand why your predicition starts to drop...I know that the price direction of the price on the higher time frame is down, I also know that you have based on pattern to show that but why they couldn't go a little bit higher taking some orders as I show on D1 chart and then start to drop?
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  • #1,162
  • May 6, 2018 7:49am May 6, 2018 7:49am
Quoting bzzz
{quote} Indeed CJ,D1 W and Mn look all in perfect sync even H4 though slightly noisy,got it ! thanks for your time and patience CJ Since i was following Gbp/Nzd i gave it a try and here is what i came with {image} {image}
Once you know the location of price within the cycle, then you will know it's direction and intent. This is all you ever need to know, to step in and take a trade anywhere within the cycle. One can trade the pair continuously, with a very high probability of success. I would advise you to spend time on learning the cycle, which is created by the daily MM activity. We are all humans and we all follow our habits and patterns. Theirs differs from ours and we all need to know this. BUT, they follow their patterns over and over again because they are successful. It is what they do.

To try and map price and trade your map would not be prudent UNLESS it is on a demo account. That is not something you learn in a few hours, if you ever do learn it. Mapping the future of price is not required for success.

-CJ-

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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #1,163
  • May 6, 2018 8:13am May 6, 2018 8:13am
Quoting Luciferz
CJ I expect the same movement on UJ as you shown on your chart but I don't understand why your predicition starts to drop...I know that the price direction of the price on the higher time frame is down, I also know that you have based on pattern to show that but why they couldn't go a little bit higher taking some orders as I show on D1 chart and then start to drop? {image} {image}
I don't understand why you choose the way you do but it is also a possibility and you may very well be correct. I can cite many things that support my view, but my diagram was from a hastily done price map, created from a smaller time frame. The pattern is also a completing 3 level. PL-PH formation. From my experience with mapping, I know that other elements will support the map, so I don't normally seek them out for confirmation. Here is one for you to consider...inverse H&S...

-CJ-

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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #1,164
  • Edited 9:02am May 6, 2018 8:17am | Edited 9:02am
Quoting tsan
{quote}my question is that i see only 2 pushes and i wait a third one.where i make wrong teacher?(2 attachment) (it seems i must go to study again yout writings) {image} {image}
I would recommend that you concentrate on trading the H4 and D1 time frames.... less time is required, meaning more time for job and family. Both of which are more important than trading.

Consider...

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-CJ-

Edit: The topic of the post is "Why it is possible to predict price movement?", and not wanting to hijack the thread, I won't continue the discussion here on cycles and levels. I stop by from time to time to update the posted maps, showing that price movement can be predicted and I will leave it at that.
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #1,165
  • May 6, 2018 1:12pm May 6, 2018 1:12pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} I would recommend that you concentrate on trading the H4 and D1 time frames.... less time is required, meaning more time for job and family. Both of which are more important than trading. Consider... {image} -CJ- Edit: The topic of the post is "Why it is possible to predict price movement?", and not wanting to hijack the thread, I won't continue the discussion here on cycles and levels. I stop by from time to time to update the posted maps, showing that price movement can be predicted and I will leave it at that.
I followed your teaching for years cj, from forexfactory to stevehopwood, i stacked my trades on m15 and all, not as daring as your way but it is good. Anyway, this is the best post ever from you. "More time for job and family. Both of which are more important than trading"..

Lastly, thank you very much for your teaching, wisdom and sharing the way to trade the market, sincerely thank you.

Anyway, is it possible for you to elaborate more on mapping or sharing your charts with marked levels so that I will be more confident in counting levels and to stack my trades like you do.
  • #1,166
  • May 6, 2018 3:15pm May 6, 2018 3:15pm
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} I would recommend that you concentrate on trading the H4 and D1 time frames.... less time is required, meaning more time for job and family. Both of which are more important than trading. Consider... {image} -CJ- Edit: The topic of the post is "Why it is possible to predict price movement?", and not wanting to hijack the thread, I won't continue the discussion here on cycles and levels. I stop by from time to time to update the posted maps, showing that price movement can be predicted and I will leave it at that.
thanks a lot for your advice.i will try to follow.i have to learn more ,only what u gave u replied to bzzzz are enough to make thoughts ..... thanks again from my heart
  • #1,167
  • May 7, 2018 2:03am May 7, 2018 2:03am
Quoting tsan
{quote} i feel like a pupil in front of my teacher that i admire and i have him as an example. i am not a professional trader .i work 8 hours and i have 2 litle girls 8 and 12 years old.so ,i am trying to be a good trader but first a good father.i share all these with u as u have shared yours. is to learn how and why the market makers move price wise questions and advice together. why? the response is to make money. i think they have daily acounts ,weekly acounts and monthly accounts. they must to produce money and to...
Exactly the same feeling my friend,wish you success,health and wealth.
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #1,168
  • May 7, 2018 2:29am May 7, 2018 2:29am
Quoting Captain Jack
{quote} Once you know the location of price within the cycle, then you will know it's direction and intent. This is all you ever need to know, to step in and take a trade anywhere within the cycle. One can trade the pair continuously, with a very high probability of success. I would advise you to spend time on learning the cycle, which is created by the daily MM activity. We are all humans and we all follow our habits and patterns. Theirs differs from ours and we all need to know this. BUT, they follow their patterns over and over again because...
I can't disagree with you CJ when you say that one doesn't need necessarly to learn mapping to be successful in this endouver but i must confess that it is highly tempting and more often that not i yield to the temptation .
thank's for your time and sharing your knwoledge and wisdom
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #1,169
  • May 7, 2018 4:09am May 7, 2018 4:09am
Quoting kk007
This sounds a simple question, but it is not indeed. There are a lot of trading methods claim working. Nevertheless, I wonder in general what logic these methods based on in predicting price movement. Can anyone give me a good answer? Thanks, kk007
Sometimes the simplest questions require complex answers...
The essence of market formation is based on psychology. That is why one correct approach or logic can not be determined for forecasting the market. Each market participant has his own psychology. The market possesses psychology, which includes every participant. Thus, the prediction of the market is an attempt to predict the behavior of other participants.
We can put this thought as the basis and assume that the market is controlled by events that affect the behavior of participants. Therefore, the forecasting logic is based on the market participants reaction analysis.
Dont hurry in three situations: marriage, sex, trade.
  • #1,170
  • May 7, 2018 4:39am May 7, 2018 4:39am
There are a lot of successful trading methods but you have to choose from them suitable for trading schedules and goals as well
I believe that the simple methods that depend on the support, resistors and lines of direction are the best and most successful methods of trading
  • #1,171
  • May 7, 2018 5:10am May 7, 2018 5:10am
I guess I made my entry too early. Now I'm unsure if they are going to take traders with orders above that pin or not. I entered because of the long pin...
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  • #1,172
  • May 7, 2018 5:21am May 7, 2018 5:21am
Quoting mfoste1
short term, price is completely random......however long term I believe price does become predictable
Cuz the main price movements on the long term is constructed by fundamental news, and short term period movements can depends on different technical factors like psychological levels, historical patterns, large market participants manipulating, ect.
  • #1,173
  • Edited 8:26am May 7, 2018 8:15am | Edited 8:26am
Quoting Talk2Know
{quote} Cuz the main price movements on the long term is constructed by fundamental news, and short term period movements can depends on different technical factors like psychological levels, historical patterns, large market participants manipulating, ect.
Fundamental news affect short term period as well where price movements are born then grow and mature later in longer time frames
both short and big time frames countains the same genetical prints of human reaction,that's why i beg to differ with mfoste1 when he said "short term, price is completely random"
Let me dig to find an example mentionned by CJ
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #1,174
  • May 7, 2018 8:38am May 7, 2018 8:38am
Here it is https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...12#post8556912
When you look at M5 and H4 you can not ignore the similarity,personally i held my breath and stared open mouthed at the charts asking discomfortingly myself:WHY?
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #1,175
  • May 7, 2018 11:22am May 7, 2018 11:22am
I don't understand why?! Price Hit my Sl and started to go where I was expecting...
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  • #1,176
  • May 7, 2018 1:58pm May 7, 2018 1:58pm
Quoting Luciferz
I don't understand why?! Price Hit my Sl and started to go where I was expecting... {image}
Same sad song sung by 95%+ traders out there....

-CJ-
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #1,177
  • May 8, 2018 5:23am May 8, 2018 5:23am
Quoting Luciferz
I don't understand why?! Price Hit my Sl and started to go where I was expecting... {image}
The issue is a rule about sl should be placed near the support/resistance level so when the move is reversed, the price could stop at a level and not reach sl. This rule helps to avoid such situations. Maybe you just put your sl on the same level with resistance and therefore, your sl and the price turned around.
Dont hurry in three situations: marriage, sex, trade.
  • #1,178
  • May 8, 2018 10:41am May 8, 2018 10:41am
Quoting Flash22
{quote} The issue is a rule about sl should be placed near the support/resistance level so when the move is reversed, the price could stop at a level and not reach sl. This rule helps to avoid such situations. Maybe you just put your sl on the same level with resistance and therefore, your sl and the price turned around.
Yes you are right, my problem is that I made the entry too soon because it did a nice pin getting the fridays orders and I thought I was missing "something" so I entered and put the Sl just where is that red horizontal line. I wasn't expecting them to reach there. Now I know what should I do next time.
  • #1,179
  • May 10, 2018 5:13am May 10, 2018 5:13am
CJ,are you still holding your EURNZD short?
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #1,180
  • May 10, 2018 7:33am May 10, 2018 7:33am
Q:

A: Because prices are determined by actions of people. People's psychology, and thus actions, are predictable. Therefore prices, a mere reflection of this activity, would show signs of predictability.

If you consider a chart, you'll notice how easy it is to predict price action. But going forward becomes hard due to personal biases and uncertainty.
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
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