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(binned per thread starter's request) Market bottom rotation trad

  • #2,741
  • Apr 24, 2018 3:55pm Apr 24, 2018 3:55pm
Know the behaviour, know the dusk, know the twitches, but never bet against the one who has superiour long term dedication and knowledge. History has order book of the fools that did so, those orders are well buried. Whenver Tesla shorts are squeezed there is 1 point to mark on the wall. Shorts are feed but longs, they get food.
  • #2,742
  • Edited 10:32pm Apr 24, 2018 10:20pm | Edited 10:32pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} First attempt stoped out -0.7R loss. Will seek for another play. Bulls are here, the question is where the spearhead is going to be launched from. {image}
Dear Janpec, i've been still reading page by page, and only pathetically reached 53rd so far.

then i noticed this one. i've found that you sometimes don't take this kind of supply as significant ones. but i have some long research history on this type of supply, it is sort of like a flip. It seems that a few of your loss are in this kind of situation (according to what i've seen until page 53rd). In other words, this kind of supply tends to cause price retrace. We might need to consider take some profit off here?

just my 1 cent, but i have done a lot of tests in this situation. i could be wrong though. lastly, many thanks for your teaching. i saved all your charts, and repeatedly observing them complement so much PA reading knowledge for me.
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  • #2,743
  • Apr 25, 2018 2:36am Apr 25, 2018 2:36am
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  • #2,744
  • Apr 25, 2018 2:40am Apr 25, 2018 2:40am
nice, but missed...
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  • #2,745
  • Apr 25, 2018 2:41am Apr 25, 2018 2:41am
eyes on:
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  • #2,746
  • Apr 25, 2018 2:58am Apr 25, 2018 2:58am
Quoting TheRealDeal
{image}
0.5R loss. Managed to close second pos on BE
  • #2,747
  • Apr 25, 2018 4:00am Apr 25, 2018 4:00am
Quoting TheRealDeal
eyes on: {image}
supply still in tact
  • #2,748
  • Apr 25, 2018 4:05am Apr 25, 2018 4:05am
Quoting charvo
{quote} Dear Janpec, i've been still reading page by page, and only pathetically reached 53rd so far. then i noticed this one. i've found that you sometimes don't take this kind of supply as significant ones. but i have some long research history on this type of supply, it is sort of like a flip. It seems that a few of your loss are in this kind of situation (according to what i've seen until page 53rd). In other words, this kind of supply tends to cause price retrace. We might need to consider take some profit off here? just my 1 cent, but i have...
Hey sure, that point holds good. It is true that very recent flipped demand will act as liquidity gap area or act as supply if it was taken out by strong sellers so one should expect bounce from it. Especially on targeted attempts. With other words to put it in picture:
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  • #2,749
  • Apr 25, 2018 4:08am Apr 25, 2018 4:08am
Quoting TheRealDeal
eyes on: {image}
Yeh there might be something towards NZDJPY, its asymmetric setup so RR most likely 1:1 at best, but might be worthy attempt.
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  • #2,750
  • Apr 25, 2018 4:11am Apr 25, 2018 4:11am
Jan,
dunno how it will be on equities or futures, but on spot fx i am paying considerable amount in commissions and spread when taking M1 or M5 setup. So i am thinking taking micro setups in conjuction with a macro setup in the same direction. I will reduce the costs by targeting the macro setup
Did you do research based on that? What is your experience with it?

Thanks
TRD
  • #2,751
  • Apr 25, 2018 4:27am Apr 25, 2018 4:27am
Quoting TheRealDeal
Jan, dunno how it will be on equities or futures, but on spot fx i am paying considerable amount in commissions and spread when taking M1 or M5 setup. So i am thinking taking micro setups in conjuction with a macro setup in the same direction. I will reduce the costs by targeting the macro setup Did you do research based on that? What is your experience with it? Thanks TRD
For sure trading along macro setups and using micros is the best way to reduce impact of commissions. You wont get as much trades though. On equities spreads and commissions have no impact whatsoever, no matter how small the liquidity is (with exception of some brokers that charge insane commissions). If you take for example trade with 20 bucks of SL in aim on most setups youll pay either 1-3 bucks in commissions or 0 if with Tradezero, so that will have no impact whatsoever on one being or not being profitable. On FX however in low volatility situations things can go quicker on the downside, for example if you trade 1-3 pip setups with most brokers you wont have a chance to be profitable. The thing is that your problem isnt in general just a setup by itself, its the volatility that matters, structure needs a depth so that you can get decent pips where the commission costs wont matter much or the spreads. Check the depth of structure before you enter, if its 10 pips in depth for example its a solid go, if its 3 pips then it will be most likely too small. With broker that i trade on tight spreaded asset the lowest depth is 2 pips (and aim of 2 pips on TP) to be able to make profits, technically its actually break even trading you need 1 or 2 extra pips to actually have long term positive gain.
But goes without saying why i stated many times to focus on equities first FX second, there are some things you can get away with it in equities.
  • #2,752
  • Apr 25, 2018 4:40am Apr 25, 2018 4:40am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Yeh there might be something towards NZDJPY, its asymmetric setup so RR most likely 1:1 at best, but might be worthy attempt. {image}
taking the micro with macro level
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  • #2,753
  • Apr 25, 2018 4:44am Apr 25, 2018 4:44am
another macro on the watchlist
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  • #2,754
  • Apr 25, 2018 4:48am Apr 25, 2018 4:48am
Quoting TheRealDeal
{quote} taking the micro with macro level {image}
This one doesnt have macro.
  • #2,755
  • Apr 25, 2018 4:49am Apr 25, 2018 4:49am
USDRUB some supply absorption maybe move up, wont take it though.
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  • #2,756
  • Apr 25, 2018 5:24am Apr 25, 2018 5:24am
Quoting janpec1000
USDRUB some supply absorption maybe move up, wont take it though. {image}
USDRUB some decent progressive move up but goes without saying that spreads are untradable atm.
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  • #2,757
  • Apr 25, 2018 5:41am Apr 25, 2018 5:41am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} This one doesnt have macro.
yes, i meant "to" the macro level as target, but also at it i will be looking for micro
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  • #2,758
  • Apr 25, 2018 5:53am Apr 25, 2018 5:53am
GBPAUD tracking supply with alert.
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  • #2,759
  • Apr 25, 2018 6:11am Apr 25, 2018 6:11am
Turkish lira spiking on pre - election results pointing towards some chances of oposition to get some votes. Its pretty safe to say that chances are Erdogan will get votes again which means that if markets keep pricing TRY to the upside towards 24th June, this will create cheap oportunity to short TRY with solid head wind.
If 24th elections bake another Erdogans victory, the TRY is done and baked for another multi year drop towards 5 and 6 USD for TRY. This will then open long term watchlist to short TRY. Lets see if we get a cheap deal though ahead of it the more TRY gains towards elections the better.
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  • #2,760
  • Apr 25, 2018 6:27am Apr 25, 2018 6:27am
Quoting janpec1000
GBPAUD tracking supply with alert. {image}
GBPAUD supply takeout, exited long on break even after strong drop back .
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