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Why it is possible to predict price movement?

  • #1,101
  • Mar 27, 2018 12:51am Mar 27, 2018 12:51am
Quoting Woohiye
{quote} I have had traders ask this question before and here is my personal opinion, yours may be different. Placing a trade is making a prediction. When you place a trade you're predicting that the market is going to move in the direction of your position over a long enough time horizon for how you trade for that position to close profitably. This is why performing various types of analysis is important. The more completely and accurately you analyze the market, the more likely your predictions will be accurate when you place your trades.
My strategy is similar to yours, maybe a little less on the analysis. The best trader in the office does no analysis at all, he simply enters when the market is moving and then it's all money/account management and while we are in the same trades a lot - he's almost always in there before me.
  • #1,102
  • Mar 29, 2018 12:50am Mar 29, 2018 12:50am
I consider that experience always counts and with the passage of time traders are getting more familiar with the market changes. And with proper technical and fundamental analysis; experienced traders try to make a forecast about the future movements. Somehow; in many instances average and retail new traders are following their trends. It is not that pro traders just make prediction randomly. Rather they try to analyze all the facts scientifically with the help of various trading tools.
  • #1,103
  • Mar 29, 2018 1:16am Mar 29, 2018 1:16am
A better question would be why is it IMPOSSIBLE to predict price movement? That's not to say the possibility is truly thrown out the window, but we all have to wonder why 95% of retail traders seem to be trading against price and the other 5% are actually getting it.
  • #1,104
  • Edited 5:37pm Mar 30, 2018 5:11pm | Edited 5:37pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} The problem is that out of the 484,000+ FF members, only a few hundred of us understand. Don't let it bother you. Find real people in your life to share your knowledge with and ignore the invisible ones. The other 483,000 members are all brainwashed to trade support/resistance and passionately committed to it, even though they know it doesn't work. They are the 95% and know it, yet won't change for anything nor anyone and will ride that mule off a cliff. It is perplexing to me too, but I am past the point of caring. I cannot let their negativity...
The lines do matter; you have to remember that there are Goliaths that can't move everything all at once and that there are limits to how far even the banks want price to deviate. How big those lines are and where they are matters a lot. Also, since you know people use them; you can expect price action to pause at them. Why they're being touched and who is trading at them makes a huge difference with how much of a pause. Bounce? Not necessarily.

If the market recently broke out of a several month range on strong news and is heading back the direction it came... Then it retraces on nothing or weak news and a small line starts to form I sure as shit am expecting it to bounce and continue in the direction of the major breakout. I'd also expect it to hold if price were to tap it again without significant reason as it's now the upper edge of a channel. And everyone else that knows the same thing is going to be there with me defending it. Along with the senseless S&R traders that don't understand PA but see a line or are taking profits at the line.

Obviously it's just a high volume cluster but there will still be some remnants of it. The market certainly isn't going to have LESS orders there than in a random spot where there's been a gap. WHY? The market wasn't at those prices long enough for impatient traders to put orders down and there was no line so it didn't stick out in their mind.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,105
  • Edited 6:17pm Mar 30, 2018 6:07pm | Edited 6:17pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} Okay, lol. Good Luck guessing which is which, which bounces and which breaks. Must be exciting! I am not Goliath, so I have no need to know what line to stop at, lol. I am a pick pocket. If they see me hanging around their internally-decided levels, I am dead, so I don't go there. Good Luck to you though!! Seriously. The stats show about 95% of traders trade support and resistance and about 95% of traders lose, so that is your personal decision. Go beat the stats!! Saw this video the other day that explains why some line traders tend to...
I don't trade line to line. I trade within the lines and outside of the lines while paying attention to what happens at them. You can't sell me the pizza but if I want some pizza shit then I know where to expect it. I'm not stupid; but I'm also not stupid enough to disregard the value of understanding other people's stupidity.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,106
  • Mar 30, 2018 6:26pm Mar 30, 2018 6:26pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} Okay, lol. Good Luck guessing which is which,
Just because trading that way doesn't fit the way you think of the markets and doesn't help you to trade DOES NOT automatically mean that it can't work for others.

Just because it isn't YOUR method doesn't mean it's wrong. This is what I tried to get ztop to comprehend.

I'm not saying your method is wrong; but for you to suggest that mine is ... is just silly.
Woohiye is a Lakota Sioux word that means success, or overcoming obstacles
  • #1,107
  • Mar 30, 2018 6:44pm Mar 30, 2018 6:44pm
Quoting guttsman007
A better question would be why is it IMPOSSIBLE to predict price movement? That's not to say the possibility is truly thrown out the window, but we all have to wonder why 95% of retail traders seem to be trading against price and the other 5% are actually getting it.
I think the 5% is not trying to be “smart” by predicting where the market will end up some time in the future ...
They are “wise” that they know most of the textbook setups, but have enough patience to trade only the fail ones for example ...
The difficulty is not so much in finding trading opportunities, but in making sure that the opportunities fit our trading discipline. Thus, it’s important that we concern ourselves with getting the entry we want and following through with predefined stop and target in place without having to get in on every opportunity. While we will miss some good gains, it will also save us from some hefty losses ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #1,108
  • Edited 7:28pm Mar 30, 2018 7:08pm | Edited 7:28pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} Sorry. Your first sentence to me was that lines do matter. If you don't know what you really mean, I don't think I can respond to you. You sure you're not stupid, lol? Just kidding. I think you mean the lines matter to the banks, as per the video I shared, so they can move their money at the expense of the zombies. If you want to track when to expect manipulation, all good, though there are so many lines that qualify, it seems worthless to me, so I don't even bother with it. Don't care. That is their money problem, not mine. Good Luck.
Far less lines qualify; the idea is to figure out which ones don't qualify and why.

The problem with mean reversion is; which mean? The past 5 years? 5 minutes?

The lines matter just as much as the mean reversion does.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,109
  • Edited 7:49pm Mar 30, 2018 7:10pm | Edited 7:49pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} ... I hope someday you can trade it for real, but of course, maybe you don't want to ...
Although my TE is a demo, it’s not a mean for testing out strategy ... it really reflects my live trading account which I’m reluctant to share publicly ...
It’s my way of sharing my “walk” ... and let the TE results do the “talking” ...
Btw, for every trade we open, “hope” is in there whether there’s a target or not ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #1,110
  • Mar 30, 2018 7:12pm Mar 30, 2018 7:12pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} If you don't think your method is silly, why do I care? That is up for you to decide, but if you don't know there is another way to do it, then how do you improve it?
I spend time in other system threads for that exact purpose. But ask ztop ... or you ... to provide ANY sort of rules, or what you look at, or really ANY kind of details to let anyone see what you're doing and you act like I'm asking you to write me a check and I get, "well if you can't figure it out for yourself."

But you see that's not what this forum is for now is it. You state an opinion that you think the way you trade is profitable, and then you explain how you do it. If you don't want to do that then why tell us that your method is any good in the first place.

Further I am very well aware that there are other ways of trading. I don't think I'm asking too much when someone says, "I have a superior way of trading" to ask them to back that up with a few details.

Quote
When I began trading I studied what everyone else did and it didn't make any sense. Each new trade is a new event. It is illogical to trade the same trade over again and again and again. I saw the stats that most people lose, and most people trade support/resistance, so I came to the conclusion that it was not only illogical to me, but has a proven trading record of failure. I found it was easier to apply business analytics to a trading graph,
Which analytics did you use?

Quote
just like any other business graph. Silly. Not silly. I don't really care what you do, but I won't be trading lines...ever. Your passion to your trading system has slightly biased your ability to read. You have applied emotion to your trading style, which is not really a good sign. You either trust what you do, or you don't. My method should not influence your mood.
Wow.

1) Your method doesn't affect my mood one bit. It can't because you won't provide any details other than, like ztop, "real time order flow" without bothering to provide even so much as a screenshot of what you do, or explain how you make your decisions, or anything else. You don't affect my mood at all. I just find it interesting that you want to talk so much about how awesome the way you trade happens to be without bothering to explain how you happen to trade.

Actually I find it quite funny which is why I've continued to engage in this thread.

2) The way I trade has made me a profitable trader for 6 years. More than that, as my analytical skill has improved so have my profits. You have zero idea if I'm applying emotion to the way I trade because you've yet to ask me any questions about my analytics in my thread. I trust my method enough to make my living trading the way I do for 6 years. And I find it interesting that you who, who seemingly insists your way of trading is better than any other, is telling me that my emotion biases my ability to read. It's just more of the humor you keep dishing out that has me continuing to engage with you.

Quote
Not one time have I ever said woohiye cannot trade.
You've suggested that using S/R results in losses, if not you then ztop who you clearly agree with has suggested that looking at historical data is a waste of time, that most indicators are pointless. While you have not addressed me specifically you have denigrated pretty much every aspect of technical analysis most everyone on this forum is working from ... at the same time you refuse to explain the analysis you perform yourself.

Again, this doesn't make me angry, I find it comical.
Woohiye is a Lakota Sioux word that means success, or overcoming obstacles
  • #1,111
  • Mar 30, 2018 7:53pm Mar 30, 2018 7:53pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} You didn't ask me for anything. I looked back and ... nothing like that.
Good lord. I did ask ztop for that repeatedly. You seemed to indicate that you trade the same way he does or at least you agreed with some things he said.

Quote
I have a thread explaining my concept and another thread with screenshots.
I'll check it out ... but why two separate threads? Why not just put the screenshots into the thread that explains the concept? That's not a challenge I'm legitimately curious as to your rationale there. It would seem that your explanation would be easier to grasp with screenshots included.

Quote
Do you want me to high jack this thread so I can teach you how I trade, or do you think you can read what I have already written?
So the what, four or five times if I had to guess, that I asked ztop for an explanation as to how he trades it never occurred to you to say, "here, check this out" until now when I had to pin you specifically down? lol, okay.

And here's where it gets funny. You use indicators, perform technical analysis, but you've suggested that my method is silly though it doesn't seem you've seen my method, the indicators I use, or gained an understanding of how I perform my analysis.

And yet you say I'm the one acting emotionally and without logic? lol

Quote
The exact tools are intellectual property,
lol .... ooooooof course they are. You understand that the combined weight of every single active member of FF isn't enough to affect the markets of even the smallest cross even if 100% of us adopted your system? Even if 100% of FF visitors adopted your system it'd barely register as a blip on the radar. Or do you subscribe to the conspiracy that institutional traders monitor FF (I assure you they've got better things to do with their time)

Quote
Next time, more logic and less emotion, okay? Some of us are the real thing.

My sentiments exactly. I'll check out your threads and reply to you from now on there.
Woohiye is a Lakota Sioux word that means success, or overcoming obstacles
  • #1,112
  • Edited 10:03pm Mar 30, 2018 8:03pm | Edited 10:03pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} Well, there is the one for the market, and the one for the time frame. Once I figured out the one for market, then I converted it into my preferred time frame to gain more precision. Then I converted it again to the next time frame to smooth out the trading signals. I have two choices. 1. Trade the sweet spots when the two signals match. 2. Convert the higher time frame ranges into lower time frame trends and essentially trade the higher time frame with the lower one as a swing trade. There is only one mean. I just overlay it from multiple...
And what is the one for the market? 15 years average? Or CoT?

No; it's the balance between multiple things. Fundamentals, the cycle's mean, recent movement and recent news around areas of accumulation, sentiment, ect.

Sure you can trade with just mean reversion but it's only a part of the picture. Using S&R lines isn't exactly why most traders lose. They lose because they risk more to stay in losing positions when they should be getting out than they gain by staying in winning positions. Trading around mean reversion works most of the time; enough that you can profit and notice when it isn't working to decide not to give everything back. That's where harmonics helps(not something I've bothered looking into on the forum since it's a pretty simple concept). Of course; you can also take the alternative route and decide to trade only when the mean reversion/harmonics stop working and that's where the big money is made. The gray area between those two methods is where the masses are getting caught in traps and flailing wildly in confusion.

S&R lines are just clusters of confusion but it's important to know where the confusion is if you have clarity. To say that they no longer matter just because price left them behind isn't accurate; there will be trapped traders and unfilled orders waiting. Usually the trapped traders are playing around with mean reversion with no clue that it stopped working.

You'll accomplish just as much with a higher timeframe mean as you will by trading off of the 5th consecutive broken support level; for instance. The fuzzy area between both are the pivots. It's all skinning the same cat. The only thing that really matters is how you respond to being wrong.

I do agree that using a large enough mean for reversion(a.k.a. waiting until most of the other fools have been wrong for a while and are in pain) is one of the simplest ways to avoid having to face that problem very often and profit enough in the meantime to make that decision more easily. But it doesn't do much good if the market doesn't give a damn about where price was... Which I do believe was the point you were making about trading S&R, no?
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,113
  • Mar 30, 2018 10:23pm Mar 30, 2018 10:23pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} I really have no idea what you are talking about. I guess you haven't read my thread either. No problem. Do your thing. Good Luck.
No,no, I get it. Equilibrium MA period and whatnot. Same thing as harmonics.

Except when the range becomes a trend.

I'm just wondering how you managed to make money buying TRY/JPY.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,114
  • Edited 11:44pm Mar 30, 2018 11:31pm | Edited 11:44pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} TRY/JPY? You need me to show you signals for it? WOW! I thought you were a hot shot trader? lol. This is not a pair I trade, but here is my analysis. You don't get to see how. You will just have to trust me. I trade pretty lazy these days, so you might make more pips, but unless you are going to give me your profit, it doesn't matter to me. It looks like I would have made money though. The first two trades look like break-even, but the rest all look good. Tomorrow, April 1, marks 11 years trading Forex. Over 40,000 hours when I include my...
-shrug- Do whatever it is you think you're doing. Your 'system' still falls within the same parameters as the others. I noticed in your thread that you were saying something about bell curves. I hope you've realized by now that the market isn't a bell curve.

To be honest; 11 years ago I was already running mean calculations and waveforms in my head to find the missing piece of the markets. I should've just watched the market itself. I'd rather not waste any more of my time on such shenanigans.

What I will say though is that 'your method' is really missing the point of it all.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,115
  • Mar 31, 2018 1:16am Mar 31, 2018 1:16am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} -shrug- Do whatever it is you think you're doing. Your 'system' still falls within the same parameters as the others. I noticed in your thread that you were saying something about bell curves. I hope you've realized by now that the market isn't a bell curve. To be honest; 11 years ago I was already running mean calculations and waveforms in my head to find the missing piece of the markets. I should've just watched the market itself. I'd rather not waste any more of my time on such shenanigans. What I will say though is that 'your method'...
Redflect,

"To be honest; 11 years ago I was already running mean calculations and waveforms in my head to find the missing piece of the markets. I should've just watched the market itself."

Could you please dumb it down and kindly elaborate this part of your experience.

Thanks
  • #1,116
  • Edited 4:16am Mar 31, 2018 2:52am | Edited 4:16am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Redflect, "To be honest; 11 years ago I was already running mean calculations and waveforms in my head to find the missing piece of the markets. I should've just watched the market itself." Could you please dumb it down and kindly elaborate this part of your experience. Thanks
As they say, "trust in the process". I spent more than enough time trying to figure out mathematically what it should do that it took years to occur to me that I should just take the time to watch it and figure out what it does do. Some of the things you'll learn by putting in enough screen time and others you'll learn from people sharing bits of information from their perspectives. If you've put in the time to watching the market move you'll be able to understand what they're seeing and what they've noticed. Then you naturally just start paying attention to those things out of habit because they become familiar enough that you expect them... Looking for them even.

The first few months I traded the tick charts, 1m and 5m charts for most of the day; valuable experiences. The next few months after that I traded the wrong direction in a trending market; more valuable experiences. The next few months I traded against fundamentals in an exotic; more valuable experience. Then I traded against a political black swan in an exotic(that I had been expecting all year);more valuable experience. Then I traded against the banks; yet more valuable experience. That you can see at the beginning of my VDM TE.

Making money is easy. Not losing it when they're wrong is the part people screw up on.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,117
  • Mar 31, 2018 3:01am Mar 31, 2018 3:01am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} As they say, "trust in the process". I spent more than enough time trying to figure out mathematically what it should do that it took years to occur to me that I should just take the time to watch it and figure out what it does do. Some of the things you'll learn by putting in enough screen time and others you'll learn from people sharing bits of information from their perspectives. If you've put in the time to watching the market you'll be able to understand what they're seeing and what they've noticed.
Thanks Redflect for taking the time...

Once you took the time figured out what the market did, did you go back and map it to any of your previous math work?

In general, what is your take on trading the market via Quant Side/ Heavy on the Math aspect vs Good old School of Technical Analysis?

Thanks
  • #1,118
  • Edited 4:57am Mar 31, 2018 4:33am | Edited 4:57am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Thanks Redflect for taking the time... Once you took the time figured out what the market did, did you go back and map it to any of your previous math work? In general, what is your take on trading the market via Quant Side/ Heavy on the Math aspect vs Good old School of Technical Analysis? Thanks
That after going to college for programming specifically to do what quants do(long before I even knew how the financial industry worked and that there were people just starting to do it)... boring shenanigans. If you want to turn to automation and just want the money while watching a computer all day I guess it could be 'fun'. I enjoy being more hands-on with my trades even if my order entries are inconvenient most of the time. Semi-automation is more of what I'd enjoy.

Plus, the algos are kind of fucking things up. It was fun to dream of years ago until I found out the repercussions. I have a lot more respect for the art than I do the science.

That isn't to say I don't look at indicators at times for quick and detailed information or that I don't use them as a filter often. I just don't really want to turn my trading into a fully-automated system where I have to peel my eyelids back just to keep my attention on the market. Of course my trading capabilities and profits suffer from this decision but whatever.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,119
  • Mar 31, 2018 8:34am Mar 31, 2018 8:34am
Quoting Redeflect
Your 'system' still falls within the same parameters as the others.
This was what I tried to get him to understand. He kept insisting otherwise while providing no details. Then after nailing him down he links me off to two threads where he claimed he explained how he traded ... which never happened. One was little more than various trading philosophies and the other nothing but screenshots with no explanations as to what the indicators were.

And now good old Dkrock has deleted all of his posts from this thread. I found that pretty interesting.
Woohiye is a Lakota Sioux word that means success, or overcoming obstacles
  • #1,120
  • Mar 31, 2018 9:42am Mar 31, 2018 9:42am
It's a game of probability. No one can exactly predict the price movement. With given data, by analysing people predict the probability of the price direction. Human being are habitual being. That's why price also have some habits. That's why different chart patterns are formed. And price follows the patterns.
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