Disliked{quote} I do because I want to know the best indicator systems out there. I will front run them most likely, but that is me. For the beginner and the intermediate, indicators are important until they can read price bar by bar. I think that indicator based systems, that are properly tuned, can really help a newer trader.Ignored
- #142
- Feb 11, 2018 9:43am Feb 11, 2018 9:43am
- Joined Feb 2017 | Status: Trader | 1,365 Posts
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
- #145
- Feb 11, 2018 10:13am Feb 11, 2018 10:13am
- | Joined Feb 2018 | Status: Nope. I don't think so. | 79 Posts
I am looking at nzd/usd for a potential sell tomorrow. Price is currently sat where previous support was 0.7252 (which should become resistance) and is also in an ascending wedge pattern which in itself usually results in a down move. If price bounces off this current level and then out of the channel next potential support is at 0.7180 and a stop at 0.7290 should be ok giving us almost 2:1 rr. {image}
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZ...-NZDUSD-SHORT/
I agree with you that it will drop again to reach the 0.7170 and possibly 0.7110
Luck Favors the Bold
- #146
- Feb 11, 2018 10:14am Feb 11, 2018 10:14am
- Joined Feb 2017 | Status: Trader | 1,365 Posts
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
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- #150
- Feb 11, 2018 11:07am Feb 11, 2018 11:07am
- Joined Mar 2011 | Status: I should be on your ignore list | 5,597 Posts
- #152
- Feb 11, 2018 11:27am Feb 11, 2018 11:27am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Trader | 13,922 Posts
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
- #154
- Feb 11, 2018 11:53am Feb 11, 2018 11:53am
- Joined Feb 2017 | Status: Trader | 1,365 Posts
The essence of trading is comparing buyers and sellers. With more buyers, price goes up. With more sellers, price goes down. If you are not measuring the difference between buyers and sellers, then you have no idea what you are doing. You are merely guessing, or "gambling". Arbitrarily posting indicators on a chart does not give you the answer. Drawing lines connecting past trades does not give you the answer. Hence, 95% of traders lose because 95% of traders do not measure buyers against sellers. You are either trading historical trades all over...
You're killing the high, man.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
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- #156
- Feb 11, 2018 12:37pm Feb 11, 2018 12:37pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: NQ eta moi lybov... | 3,030 Posts
I can see that the message isn't getting through. I have a wardrobe full of t-shirts.
What's the best way to trade? To find a trend and join in.
How to determine a trend? Simple Market structure (HH/HL or LL/LH's).
Ok, how to join in? Wait for a pullback.
Right then, here is where years and years of going around in circles using indicators led to nothing. Waiting for MA crossovers, waiting for this to turn red/green and CCI needs to be above 50 or 100 blah blah...
You can use 123's as a back into trend or trend reversal, or break of Cup & Handle which is essentially the same thing, or break of a flagline etc. Every single one of those puts you into the trade late, with a bigger risk then trading the pullback to the start of the move (Supply or Demand) and that makes a huge difference.
Charts leave us a clue as to where buyers and sellers enter the market. The reactions spell it out. More often than not a large (instie) order will not get filled straight away, so they then manipulate the price back to their order level where it then gets filled. What that means is that a S/D zone will usually get revisited. Exactly what my previous; 'Look Left' chart shows...
This is a trade i took during the week;
Now lets compare if you had waited for the 123 trigger (break of point 2), this will be similar to most crossover entries too;
Your entry is much later. My initial risk is a mere 6 points. If it doesn't react by then, i'm expecting it to break through. The risk with the stop above the 123 is 15 points, (2.5 x the Supply trades total). Now, let's think about that a second. For the sake of easy computing, let's say i wanted to risk $30, i would be $5/point, whereas the later trade would be $2 point. Both trades exit at the same place. This is the stoploss chase being a point above each finished candle once we are near the prior Demand area (it is likely to react there too). It's a 29 point gain ($145) for the Supply trade vs 16 point gain ($32) for the 123 break.
The difference between the two results is exponential and also why, when you factor in your losing trades, the latter method will just forever make you a bit and then you'll give it back, effectively going nowhere year after year, whereas the former also has plenty of losing trades, but so what? The R:R is massively skewed. So much so, you can afford plenty of losers. With experience you get to know which ones will more likely work in any case, especially when coupled with EW counts etc.
There is also, more often then not enough of a reaction from a S/D zone to get your stop to BE anyway, even when the trend has changed and you are the wrong side of it. In any case, by switching, trades after a loser, you will usually then be the right side of the trade. It often depends what is to the left, whether there is 'blue sky' to the next likely zone or not...
Indicators lag. PA does not.
What's the best way to trade? To find a trend and join in.
How to determine a trend? Simple Market structure (HH/HL or LL/LH's).
Ok, how to join in? Wait for a pullback.
Right then, here is where years and years of going around in circles using indicators led to nothing. Waiting for MA crossovers, waiting for this to turn red/green and CCI needs to be above 50 or 100 blah blah...
You can use 123's as a back into trend or trend reversal, or break of Cup & Handle which is essentially the same thing, or break of a flagline etc. Every single one of those puts you into the trade late, with a bigger risk then trading the pullback to the start of the move (Supply or Demand) and that makes a huge difference.
Charts leave us a clue as to where buyers and sellers enter the market. The reactions spell it out. More often than not a large (instie) order will not get filled straight away, so they then manipulate the price back to their order level where it then gets filled. What that means is that a S/D zone will usually get revisited. Exactly what my previous; 'Look Left' chart shows...
This is a trade i took during the week;
Now lets compare if you had waited for the 123 trigger (break of point 2), this will be similar to most crossover entries too;
Your entry is much later. My initial risk is a mere 6 points. If it doesn't react by then, i'm expecting it to break through. The risk with the stop above the 123 is 15 points, (2.5 x the Supply trades total). Now, let's think about that a second. For the sake of easy computing, let's say i wanted to risk $30, i would be $5/point, whereas the later trade would be $2 point. Both trades exit at the same place. This is the stoploss chase being a point above each finished candle once we are near the prior Demand area (it is likely to react there too). It's a 29 point gain ($145) for the Supply trade vs 16 point gain ($32) for the 123 break.
The difference between the two results is exponential and also why, when you factor in your losing trades, the latter method will just forever make you a bit and then you'll give it back, effectively going nowhere year after year, whereas the former also has plenty of losing trades, but so what? The R:R is massively skewed. So much so, you can afford plenty of losers. With experience you get to know which ones will more likely work in any case, especially when coupled with EW counts etc.
There is also, more often then not enough of a reaction from a S/D zone to get your stop to BE anyway, even when the trend has changed and you are the wrong side of it. In any case, by switching, trades after a loser, you will usually then be the right side of the trade. It often depends what is to the left, whether there is 'blue sky' to the next likely zone or not...
Indicators lag. PA does not.
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
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- #160
- Feb 11, 2018 10:42pm Feb 11, 2018 10:42pm
- Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Servant of wealth | 1,193 Posts
