Bitcoin technical analysis

I was alive when 7441.1 was violated. Bears have been overcomed... and bulls have managed to put their acts together and it is a bull's country until the next bend.

eyes wide open

Update

After my horrible TA, (that pay me too much today...+17%) short btceur.

My first tg 2k.


Charts don't lie.

The difference between a correction and a crash.

For comparison sake, firstly, the daily chart of the Nasdaq showing the Tech Bubble burst;



Now the current daily Bitcoin chart;



If Bitcoin survives... Here is why there is never usually any rush to catch the 'falling knife'. Let PA show you the way. Waves 1&2 are usually lethargic. The market does not have the same memory as humans. Everyone believes that Bitcoin will go back up as fast as it did before. The markets don't usually work that way. You see, our memory is of the most recent price action (PA), thus everyone feels like they MUST buy into Bitcoin at these levels, because it will soon take off again to $100 or beyond... Slow down! Firstly, it needs to prove that it will survive.
Here is the daily chart of the Nasdaq (US 100 tech market), spanning back several years. Then i have included a like for like chart of Bitcoin. That is not to say, it will follow an identical path, however, it does show that wave 1 takes a while to gain any momentum and wave 2 is usually deep, taking you almost back to where it started from again. That is when to buy. Later this year according to the scales...

8330 need to be defended by bulls failure to which bears will reign again

Here is my comparison to the NDX pattern since the Dot_com High. The correction after the top took 9 years ....

Sixer

Edit:
Is Bitcoin in 1998 or 1999 already ??

https://www.rt.com/business/418215-w...cast-gold/amp/

Bitcoin twins went totally crazy!!

Lets prepare for them a 2 bunk bed room in a mental disorder hospital.

Don't worry, we'll see them there soon when bitcoin crash below $1000

Hi Sixer,

I usually find people get very defensive when their charts require correcting, but if i may...

A 4th wave has to be in proportion to the prior cycle beforehand. Actually, often they are really quite small, less easy to spot than a 2nd wave. This is because 2nd waves are usually deep, due to indecision at the time, whereas a 4th occurs after the powerful 3rd and not always there is much interest in the counter-move at that stage.

Also look at your ABC, it is the perfect shape of a triangle ('up the stairs' -impulse, followed by the 'down in the elevator' sharp drop, deep corrective... a nailed on wave 1&2. Very rarely you will see a truncated 'C' wave that does not go beyond wave 'A'

Hope you can see what i mean?)

Regards

CG

CG,

thanks for your hints. I have no problem if i get comments as most of the Elliotticians do.
My LT NDX count for wave IV is oriented at the LT DJI count and at the LT Delta count.

Sixer

First off let me say, I'm not interested in buying Bitcoin right now. My interest lies in alt coins. But since its the big kid on the block, and many coins are priced and traded in BTC, I think you have to have an opinion on it. To me 5800 was/is good support. But its also an area that was well advertised, and it seems that there where a lot of people looking to buy this dip, didn't feel like capitulation. At any rate, don't know if it holds, it could. I still favor entering the space on a test of 3200 now, with the possibility of trading down to 2200, which from my understanding is under the current cost of mining. The similarities to the tech bubble are there, sure, but with one fundamental difference in my opinion. The internet is established now. You are not going to have to convince people to use it, like you did back then. Naturally, many of these coins/projects are in their infancy, many without working products/applications. Who knows who is around in five years, let alone who the leader is, but that's part of the reason its an extremely high risk, high reward situation.

binance.com the most (??) important exchange "temporarily" down, nice to force up my TA, short, levels 2k (btceur)...

IMHO, a break below 8159.2 will confirm this analysis

I have moved to Bitstamp, the approval process was pretty involved, but it looks like it is a necessary part of having a stable platform. So far very stable and no issues with extended website maintenance.

Thanks for trying to chart the way. I think we have a few more cycles to go before the technical analysis can transition into more of a science. We have just passed USD8,800 and from your chart, if we breach USD9,200 we may well be able to confirm the low at USD6,000. Who knows maybe the "Bitcoin twins" mentioned above will be proven correct this year.

"a break below 8159.2 will confirm this analysis" has not happened yet or did I miss something
update: IMHO, a break below 8745.9 will confirm the beginning of the last leg south

I love reading everyone trying to predict the bottom. This is why crashes do so much damage, people try to call it after a new high has been reached. Buy at $9k and see what happens.

Guys, we haven't had the death plunge yet. The market wont recover until it scares the shit out of everyone...