Is Bitcoin about to crash?

Actually, my Daily 100sma, which is more significant in terms of potential support than a nice round number, is still a little below the price yet at 9,760. If 10,000 breaks, which is touch and go right now, it can drop hard right through any support down as low as you like, or, it can hit a big moving average such as this daily 100sma, and pop straight back up, just as the Dow did on March 10th, 2009, when it was falling like a rock until it hit the bi-monthly 200ema, stopped dead in its tracks, and turned north, barely looking back. I remember that day well.

nah, you should be buying it.

when everyone thinks its going to explode, you short it. when everyone thinks is going to crash you buy it. simple as... trading.

actually when to think about it, it is a pretty much good gamble trade at the moment - it touches the yesterday`s bar long tail and the price is near a huge support of the china news. look at the enormous volume during the bad china news - there must be buying. sl somewhere bellow the gap before the news.

i would still prefer trading the euro/usd, tho - spread and margin are much, much better, you can trade it even 5 min timeframe and btc is too volatile and lacks liquidity.

Any confirmation there might have been of a reversal has vanished now, and she is on another leg down I would say. Daily 100sma decisively broken, so I think its $8000 here we come.

Can anyone see this support, because I can't see it. The next potential support I have is 8000. I was thinking once 10,000 broke we'd drop $2000 in the blink of an eye....taking a breather before the evening session?

Depends who you mean by everyone - the naive investor, or the seasoned pro. Certainly your logic will see you killed off very quickly indeed.

Not out of the woods yet, but my moving average order on the 30m chart , which was entirely bearish yesterday, is now broken, meaning a higher one has now crossed beneath a lower one, which, should, according to my system, take the edge off the selling pressure, not remove it, yet, but dull it. It means that the low we saw today of 9,180 may not be broken from this position, so the price should consolidate and move up, at least temporarily until it rises and rolls over for new lows, potentially. The higher time frames are still extremely bearish though, with MAs all in their correct descending order. If it rises from here, it will almost certainly fall again, and it is only then that we will know whether BTC is bottoming out, or pushing on for another leg down.

Rising from here, then falling again but to a higher low, could pull in new buyers. Breaking today's low though, in this evening session, and 8000 surely awaits.

It may help to see the bigger picture. South Korea and Japan are considering restricting how we can use cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has an equal chance of falling more.

Yes, thank you for that. The fundamentals are important but I have not discussed them here as personally I prefer to focus on my chart visuals. This does not mean that they should not be discussed here though, and I welcome any input from a fundamental perspective.

If I were invested in this Bitcoin bubble, I'd be taking at least a 50% take profit ASAP. Talk about market control; it's about 1000 people that hold about 40% of all Bitcoins.

Looks like people are dumping BTC and buying EUR

The thing about this is that people buying Cryptos are unleveraged, unless they are buying the futures or broker-bets.
Therefore you might get a sore ass but you should have something left at the end, assuming the exchanges will pay....

I see the next support in the 7800 ~ 8200 range. It is obvious on the daily chart.

Does this "bigger picture" include the fact that South Korea wants to regulate exchanges which charge 30% more for crypto?

The industry needs regulation and long term/bigger picture will be good for BTC and crypto

For every bad news crypto story out there there is a counter balancing good news story ( plus alot of doomsday / misinformation news pieces inbetween)

Signal of the bottom of this sell off I suggest will be (MSM and zerohedge/FF)

good news events from Asia
crypto endorsement from 'leading banker/investment company'

price will rise rinse and repeat

9700 reached, soon it will go to 8700. On D1 if goes to ema200 or close bellow ema 200 that is already 8000. So....doesn't need imagination for conclusion....

BTC did indeed rise as I thought it might as per my last post, and now has indeed rolled over off of the 30m 100sma, though it did breach it a little. Now the test is to see whether it can break through yesterday's low. or, put in a higher low before rising again to breach the 100sma and then the 200ema, which could then see it rise back up towards 13,000.

Btc (D)

the news is that ...
it could be a fifth (@9189) if the ...
... climb will be over 47% (to be confirmed)

it is advisable to wait for the trendline break


P.S.
(TP 21.4k)

Bullish hammer yesterday, which is a positive sign for bulls, and looking at my 15m chart, it looks as if the price is about to rise higher, perhaps to 12,270-13,000 today if it gets a good run.

The rollover danger is not yet passed I don't think, though I think we should know by this afternoon if not before.

Short term bullish momentum has been maintained throughout the morning session, and I'd be surprised if R1 at 12,260 isn't hit today, which is also the H1 100sma, and possibly up as high as 13,000 is definitely within range. Complete meltdown looks to have been averted , for now at least.

Bitcoin stabilizes after plunge, but downside risks remain

Recent volatility in Bitcoin trading has been nothing short of extreme when placed within the context of traditional financial markets. But in the relatively new world of cryptocurrency trading, the recent wild swings in Bitcoin have only been slightly more vigorous than usual.

The latest plunge for BTC/USD began in earnest earlier in the week when reports surfaced that South Korea and China were considering tighter regulations, and even a potential ban in the case of South Korea, on the trading of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. These reports triggered an avalanche of falling prices for key cryptos, most notably the widely-traded Bitcoin, which fell by well over 30% at one point this week.

As the initial concerns over increased Asian regulation began to wear-off, however, BTC/USD began to stabilize on Wednesday after hitting a low well below the key $10,000 psychological level and establishing a new year-to-date low just above the $9,000 handle. By Thursday afternoon trading, BTC/USD was above $11,000 once again, and tentatively taking a breather after a wild ride.

While Bitcoin traders have calmed down in the latter half of this week, the specter of greater Asian regulation on the cryptocurrency has not gone away. The danger to Bitcoin of any increased regulation or outright bans in Asia, which is home to a great deal of cryptocurrency investment and speculation, should not be underestimated. If such tighter regulation comes into being, the price of Bitcoin could take an even more substantial hit.

From a somewhat limited technical perspective, BTC/USD dropped below a key short-term support level around $12,500 in the process of the recent plunge. If the cryptocurrency is unable to re-take that level, and instead falls back below $10,000 again, the outlook should remain bearish given the still-prevailing pressures on Bitcoin. Any further fall below Wednesday’s $9,000-area low would exacerbate this bearish outlook. In contrast, a sustained move back above $12,500 should indicate that traders are brushing off the threat of tighter Asian regulation, in which case BTC/USD could potentially be poised for a return towards January’s highs just above $17,000.


Source: FOREX.com

BTC moving sideways beneath its 30m 200ema since yesterday. If it falls away a bit this morning, as it looks likely to do atm, the support test will be the fibs I think, so 61.8 and 76.4% are key at 10,280, and 9,855 respectively.

The 30m 100sma is now beneath the price in a potentially supporting position.

Here's a possible scenario going forward.....

Bitcoin is rich in harmonics and the current harmonic pattern indicates that the price has a high probability of rallying