Is Bitcoin about to crash?

It was the diversion on number two on this H6 chart that first alerted me to the signs of a potential crash, and I posted the chart above. The price then pushed up again, very steeply before halting, and once the 20sma was broken at number 3, with the diversion still in place, and with the price so far above its 200 ema/sma moving averages, this was a big sell signal, and would have been with any market, in fact, it is one of the patterns I always look for, whatever I am trading on any time frame. So people who say, and many have said it to me, that technical analysis doesn't work with Bitcoin, simply do not know what they are talking about. I cannot of known for sure that it was about to fall as precipitously as it did, but the signs were there and it was no surprise to me that it did.

BTC looks like it could be in trouble, with as I type the real possibility of another push down. The trend line has been broken on this H6 chart, the time frame which for me is giving the clearest picture of what it is doing and likely to do.

I do have some potential H1 support at around $13,126 down to around 13,000, so if it is going to avoid dropping, it really has to pull in some buyers at these levels I think, and actually, right now as I type, it is pushing down and has just hiot the higher of those levels. So 13,000, perhaps a bit lower for a turnaround, otherwise Monday could be a very fraught day for those still hanging onto their BTC gains.

If you're watching BTC, you'l see that the price has indeed reacted within that potential support level, rallying almost $200 off of 13,050. This is a massive test for BTC now, as I think it's staring over the edge of a cliff, and the question is, does it want to jump, or will it change its mind and back away?

Who do not know ...
... there is a report on criptocurrencies

another point of view ...

Bitcoin : quarterly, monthly and weekly timeframe

trend:
lt=quaterly (N),
mt=monthly (L) ... Neutral under 12160,20 (@close monthly bar),
bt=WEEKLY timeframe (Neutral)... LONG over 17754$ ...SHORT under 13105.90$ (@close weekly bar)

cycles: lt (DowN), mt (DowN), bt (DowN)


P.S.
(to download for free for a certain period of time)
https://www.cicliemercati.it/cryptoraiderreport

H1 is currently bullish, so I would expect a rise. Charts below show my set up on both the H1 and H6. If it does rise today, then first line of resistance is the H1 200ema. Above that I've put the fib levels on, the highest being the 76.4% in orange, then 61.8% in yellow.

On the H6 chart, that 100sma which is the dark blue one coming over the top, should be a magnet pulling the price towards it, but whether the price can break above it, or fail to remains to be seen.

BTC is not out of trouble yet, and though I think it may rise today based on the technicals on H1, the H6 is still showing a bearish set up, and this H6 200ema/trendline could be challenged again this week.

It is a difficult one to call at the moment, because I think BTC can go either way from here.

A friend of mine who's been holding Bitcoin since 2012 just posted on her FB page - " Bloodbath for cryptos or are we just warming up "?

What do you savvy traders reckon? Are we going to see BTC move higher, or has it had its day?

I think more up.. but we are near the end. of this bull trend.

will it reboot in 2 years, I don't know.

Almost touched this H1200ema ( 14,228 ) I plotted above, and it is dropping back a wee bit as I type, but I would expect the price to punch through this today, at least to the 200sma above at 14,500 on my charts, and if it can get above that and really get some steam going, then I think 15,500 could be hit today, and that's the H4 200sma, the 61.8% fib retrace, and today's pivot level R3. That should be a big resistance level if it gets there.

I notice something anomalous ...
(both in the Elliott count and in the trendline breaks)

(But it's my feeling ...)

Abnormal because I would have expected a 5th one (of 3rd composed : 12345=1st wave) ...
... faster ( ... and instead is under ma200 = "h4" timeframe)

Abnormal because in the break of trendlines there is a pullback ...
... too pushed and the next break is a trendline inclined upwards (usually downwards)

It would make me think of an AbC correction
(we would be inside b waves) but ...
the 12345 count = 1st wave is also anomalous ...


P.S.
Big boys repositioning ?

Btc (h4)

... but ... the trend is clear


P.S.
(stoch 170,5,5)

The 76.4% at $16,180 is looking like it might be a target if she can break through the current H1 200ema resistance. I have a potential topping ma just above that at 16,500. That is as high as I want to look at at the moment, because if it gets there, and that 16-16,500 breaks, then we could be into bull territory again, so we shall have to wait and see. For now, this support has the potential to lift it a couple of thousand dollars at least over the next couple of days or so.

The real value of bitcoin is exactly $0. With that said, I wouldn't dare short it, as God only knows how many more people will buy into the nonsense before it implodes.

H1 shooting star, and these clear candle signals tend to get bought and sold pretty strongly on BTC from what I've observed, especially when they come at obvious potential S&R levels. H1 support is still there though, so I wouldn't expect this to push too far down, but so is the resistance potentially strong, so one side has to break. I stick with upside momentum for now.

I think that a crash (though perhaps not the crash) will be largely dependent on how the situation in South Korea will develop in the future. Right now they are still on the fence in regards to a cryptocurrency ban.
That fact alone already rattled the markets. I think that if they do implement such a ban we could see a serious crash.

What happens if they are followed by another Far-Eastern entity such as Malaysia. Do you think a crash might become the crash?

I offered two scenarios above, as BTC has been at a pivotal level these last few days, and it has decided to go south.

Trend line and H6 200ema decisively broken, and now, it could be in big big trouble, with the way open for 10,000 or lower.

11,380 is the H12 200ema, and it's just north of it now, so that could provide the support it needs. Below that, and we are in freefall territory if we aren't there already. Yesterday's Daily shooting star was the catalyst for today's selling.

H12 200ema potential support.

Price reacting atm. Price may now move back up towards the 100sma.

Daily chart shows open water all the way down to just below 10,000, so this support has to hold if the price is not going to put in new lows in the very near future. Then, I would say the real panic selling could begin, which could, conceivably, take Bitcoin back down to 8,000 or lower.

Cryptocurrency bloodbath: Bitcoin below $12K

Today’s small gain in the dollar or the fall in the pound following the publication of UK inflation data was nothing compared to the sell-off in crypto currencies. Bitcoin was down some 15% while Ripple had shed 30% at one stage. Cyptos have been held back in recent days amid increasing levels of scrutiny from regulators, most notably in South Korea, where the government is planning to clamp down on trading in virtual currencies. The justice ministry is apparently working on a bill to ban cryptocurrency trading through exchanges. If the bill is eventually passed by the National Assembly it would be very bad news given that South Korea is the world’s third-largest market for cryptocurrencies. The uncertainty is weighing on investor sentiment. However suggestions that this is the start of the demise of cryptos is very premature.

This uncertainty is reflected in price action, with Bitcoin trading near the lower end of its wide range. The key support that needs to hold on a closing basis is at 11400, a level which previously support and resistance. If BTC/USD breaks below this level then it could very easily drop to the next psychologically-important level of $10K next. Below that, the next support comes in at 8350, which was previously a resistance level. Meanwhile resistance comes in at 12800, last week’s low, followed by 13430, the low of the doji candle from Monday. If these levels break then Bitcoin will likely go above this week’s opening price level of 13648, which, if realised, would be a bullish outcome, particularly if the most recent swing high at 13495 is also taken out.


Source: TradingView and FOREX.com