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The effect of a stock market correction/crash on cryptos? 4 replies

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Is Bitcoin about to crash?

  • #21
  • Dec 20, 2017 3:58am Dec 20, 2017 3:58am
Quoting mw108
{quote} Maybe you should have chosen a different title then? Just saying.
It was a toss up between ' Bitcoin for Aardvarks' and this one, but after much strained deliberation, I went for the latter.
  • #22
  • Dec 21, 2017 1:59am Dec 21, 2017 1:59am
BTC can be bought pretty hard from this level now, as it is coming off the H2 200ema with further MA support beneath it. There is resistance from here to the high, so we'll have to see whether it breaks or holds.
  • #23
  • Dec 21, 2017 9:36am Dec 21, 2017 9:36am
Well, it's not being bought as it has been in the past off of strong support, which could be significant. $4000 down now from the high, and beginning to look like it could very soon drop a lot lower.

The attached chart is the H4 showing that currently, the price is sitting on the 61.8% fib plotted from the 10th Dec low, and even as I type this, it is pushing lower. The next big potential support is the H4 200ema I've marked on the chart, unless it reaches the 76.4% fib and that holds it, though I reckon if it gets down there, it'll go all the way to the 200ema.

One thing is certain - all those sucked into the hype who bought Bitcoin up near 20,000, and believe me there would have been a fair few, will be sweating buckets by now. I certainly would be!!
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  • #24
  • Dec 21, 2017 10:08am Dec 21, 2017 10:08am
BTC has just lost $2000 during the last hour alone. Technically, it is now in freefall zone down to $13,500 or so. Whether it will collapse to this level or not remains to be seen, but it would not surprise me at all, even if it happened today. From $20,0000, down to that level so fast would be a massive shock to many people, and a lesson that, when any speculative bubble is being hyped to the rafters as much as BTC has been recently, you know you don't want to be buying into it.
  • #25
  • Dec 21, 2017 1:39pm Dec 21, 2017 1:39pm
The thundering of hooves.............
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #26
  • Dec 22, 2017 2:22am Dec 22, 2017 2:22am
From just shy of $20,000 down to $12,500 in a single week - that is a crash whichever way you look at it. The answer therefore to the question asked in the title of this thread, is now a resounding ' Yes '. the question now is, just how much further can it, will it fall?

At present, it is the H4 200sma that the price has found support on, and I would not be surprised to see it pullback off this, though for how long before it falls further we will have to see. Could this be the bottom? Yes, it could, but momentum is pretty strongly down on time frames below the Daily, so there is strong selling pressure for sure, and the lower BTCfalls, the greater the pressure is going to be. If this H4 200sma breaks, then the next level of potentially strong support I have is the H6 200ema at $12,000.
  • #27
  • Dec 22, 2017 2:28am Dec 22, 2017 2:28am
going back to history bitcoin got a habit of going up a whole year and loosing its value the next year by 80%. might be happening again who knows.
  • #28
  • Dec 22, 2017 2:57am Dec 22, 2017 2:57am
Quoting maflip
going back to history bitcoin got a habit of going up a whole year and loosing its value the next year by 80%. might be happening again who knows.
If it is, then its already on its way that's for sure. The media hype reached a crescendo during the past couple of weeks, no doubt suckering a lot of new investors into buying it completely blind, and history shows time and again, that when a bubble reaches that kind of euphoria, it is close to popping.
  • #29
  • Dec 22, 2017 3:12am Dec 22, 2017 3:12am
I think a pullback up to perhaps $16,000 is possible from this level, though if it does pullback that much, then it's too early to say now whether this would constitute a resumption of the uptrend, or a pullback before falling again.

In a pattern such as we have right now, with the price down on the H4 200sma and the 100sma coming round over the top, the 100sma often acts like a magnet to pull the price back up towards it. This is a well recognized pattern, and the big money very often responds to it, on any instrument on any time frame.
  • #30
  • Dec 22, 2017 3:31am Dec 22, 2017 3:31am
Quoting cat
From just shy of $20,000 down to $12,500 in a single week - that is a crash whichever way you look at it. The answer therefore to the question asked in the title of this thread, is now a resounding ' Yes '. the question now is, just how much further can it, will it fall? At present, it is the H4 200sma that the price has found support on, and I would not be surprised to see it pullback off this, though for how long before it falls further we will have to see. Could this be the bottom? Yes, it could, but momentum is pretty strongly down on time frames...
Real demand is at $1336.Sooner or later will get there.

To the people who invested at 20k$ thinking it will go to the moon before making a big correction and being unable to detect a bubble like this...well they deserve to lose.
  • #31
  • Dec 22, 2017 4:27am Dec 22, 2017 4:27am
So it is indeed reacting pretty strongly to the H4 200sma which is no surprise, up already $1,700 as I write. The level I will be watching very closely is today's central pivot around 16,000, with the 100sma just above currently at 16,200. It may not get that far, but if it does, then that could be an important resistance level.

This thing is going play out over Christmas, and all depends on how many buyers are piling into BTC at the moment.
  • #32
  • Dec 22, 2017 7:32am Dec 22, 2017 7:32am
Right on S3 Daily pivot now as I type. If this breaks, she can fall to $10,000 at the drop of a hat.
  • #33
  • Dec 22, 2017 7:53am Dec 22, 2017 7:53am
To all those, and I know many, who have maintained BTC was not a bubble, and failure to buy, even up at 19-20,000, would risk being left behind, I now say confidently that they were wrong, very wrong, but so adamant were they that somehow the rise in BTC was above and beyond the impulses which govern human nature, that even I was beginning to believe them.

Whatever happens to the price from here, what we have been seeing was a bubble, and like every speculative bubble throughout history, it has now popped, not completely as it is still holding an incredibly high value compared to a year ago, but the air has gone out of it for sure, at least for the time being. To have believed that it was anything other than a bubble, was naive and myopic in the extreme.
  • #34
  • Dec 22, 2017 8:01am Dec 22, 2017 8:01am
....and down again we go!! Watch the H6 200ema level I mentioned above. It's pretty much on 12,000. If that one breaks, then all hell may break loose to the downside!!
  • #35
  • Dec 22, 2017 8:08am Dec 22, 2017 8:08am
Quoting cat
....and down again we go!! Watch the H6 200ema level I mentioned above. It's pretty much on 12,000. If that one breaks, then all hell may break loose to the downside!!
Already smashed through.
  • #36
  • Dec 22, 2017 8:09am Dec 22, 2017 8:09am
Advice for all those currently holding Bitcoin..

Pray!
  • #37
  • Dec 22, 2017 8:11am Dec 22, 2017 8:11am
11200 touched
The Phoenix Trader....
  • #38
  • Dec 22, 2017 8:15am Dec 22, 2017 8:15am
I'm not happy now, because I know people who are losing a great deal of money today. However, I feel a bit justified, because I sent certain people the link to this thread when I first opened it and to a large extent I was ignored, especially by fundies who do not believe in technical analysis.
  • #39
  • Dec 22, 2017 8:20am Dec 22, 2017 8:20am
11,000 and the H6 200sma now approaching, but it smashed through 12,000 and the 200ema as if it wasn't there.
  • #40
  • Dec 22, 2017 8:21am Dec 22, 2017 8:21am
I feel bad for those who took out mortgages to buy BTC at or near the peak. God save their souls.
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