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Bitcoin technical analysis

  • #5,321
  • Oct 18, 2017 4:39am Oct 18, 2017 4:39am
Quoting Nicholishen
Are you guys buying this dip?
Wait for the buy signals - "don't catch a falling knife" !
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #5,322
  • Oct 18, 2017 4:40am Oct 18, 2017 4:40am
Last thought for a few months: "You got a horse race, you got a dog race, you got a human race, but this is a rat race" - Bob Marley
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #5,323
  • Oct 18, 2017 5:32am Oct 18, 2017 5:32am
Quoting Nicholishen
Are you guys buying this dip?
Not yet, wait a little more
  • #5,324
  • Oct 18, 2017 11:33am Oct 18, 2017 11:33am
Quoting halichthiep
Elliott Wave: *wave III extension=> the length of wave V= 161.8% X the length of wave I = 161.8% X 2005 points = 3244 points => the top wave V at $6210. **wave V extension=>the length of wave 1 through wave 3 = 61.8% X the length of wave 5=> the length of wave 5 = 2347 points. =>the top wave 5 at $6500. (*)+(**)=> The top wave V: $6200->$6500. Note: a) the length of wave I = 2005 points b) the length of wave 1 through wave 3= 1451 points. After Bitcoin reaches the peak. Next year 2018, correction will be made by wave A, B, C. the length of wave...
Strong Buy around $5000 target $6200
  • #5,325
  • Oct 18, 2017 11:41am Oct 18, 2017 11:41am
Amazing LasVegas Bar (LGD/BTC)

Entry Buy around $0,83 target $20
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  • #5,326
  • Oct 18, 2017 8:30pm Oct 18, 2017 8:30pm
Here's another Elliott Wave analysis for BTC/USD:

https://www.investing.com/analysis/b...wave-200219404
Amor Fati--F. Nietzsche
  • #5,327
  • Edited 2:37am Oct 19, 2017 1:47am | Edited 2:37am
Quoting doji
Here's another Elliott Wave analysis for BTC/USD: https://www.investing.com/analysis/b...wave-200219404
Mostly agree with your wave count. In the 4hr chart, the iii and iv labels could be moved left one subwave each, because I've noticed that bitcoin tends to make a "flat" zigzag for most corrections - with wave B making a new high and wave C (to the downside) reaching the same level as the bottom of wave A.

At the intermediate degree, such as this advance from the Sept low, bitcoin seems to advance in diagonals, like most commodities, so each intermediate wave is an ABC push higher - first the rounded A wave then a B wave correction (too shallow to be a 2nd wave) and then a parabolic C wave. Similarly, downward corrections make a large ABC with the final declining wave, seemingly wave E, pulling to a new low just short of the previous Minor degree B wave's level. Incidentally, this is why almost every "straight impulse" (stocks style) wave count for that old relic gold fails, because it moves in ABCs - diagonals.

Changing perspective from straight 5-wave impulse advance to diagonal advance should give you a new outlook on where the next wave V will push to with its ABC substructure! Diagonal counting also explains the deep corrections and their strange sub-structure better (apparently ABCDE but with an oversize wave E, but actually a WXYXZ resembling a large ABC.

Edit: strangely, when bitcoin declines, at the Primary degree, it seems to do so in straight impulse counts. If you invert the chart you will see that it resembles a regular stock chart! This is discussed in EWP pp. 173-182:
Quote
Hope and fear look different on a chart, which is one of the reasons that commodity market tops often look like stock market bottoms.

I contend that the primary engine that drives bitcoin price higher, in a parabola, is a speculative cocktail of greed and fear, specifically, Fear Of Missing Out.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #5,328
  • Oct 19, 2017 2:08am Oct 19, 2017 2:08am
I don`t agree with the presented elliott count of Bitcoin from the analyst of investing.com.

If you check the other cryptos you will see that they didn`t exceed the highs of beginning of sept.
That`s why i assume that wave "iv" is still unfolding. I count this pattern as irregular flat.

Sixer
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  • #5,329
  • Oct 19, 2017 6:34am Oct 19, 2017 6:34am
Quoting Sixer
I don`t agree with the presented elliott count of Bitcoin from the analyst of investing.com. If you check the other cryptos you will see that they didn`t exceed the highs of beginning of sept. That`s why i assume that wave "iv" is still unfolding. I count this pattern as irregular flat. Sixer {image}
Fair enough, and a rational argument. However, if your proposed wave v tops out in the coming week or two then where does that place price in relation to the necessary coin-doubling rally into Nov ~20th? Price has only rarely declined, as opposed to advance, between new moon and full moon...
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #5,330
  • Oct 19, 2017 6:38am Oct 19, 2017 6:38am
Quoting Sixer
If you check the other cryptos ...
Some people make a good argument that the other cryptos are scams, frauds, and soon to be bankrupt .com ICOs
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #5,331
  • Edited 7:09am Oct 19, 2017 6:51am | Edited 7:09am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Fair enough, and a rational argument. However, if your proposed wave v tops out in the coming week or two then where does that place price in relation to the necessary coin-doubling rally into Nov ~20th? Price has only rarely declined, as opposed to advance, between new moon and full moon...
It can also be argued that the money that would have entered the cryptoscam market was diverted to Bitcoin instead. Hence the altcoins couldn't make a new high, for lack of liquidity, and will probably decline as money continues leaving them (for Bitcoin) during the coming super rally.

Remember, what makes Bitcoin great is not the blockchain and cryptographic security that all the altcoins are cloning, but its "brain trust" - the specific team of developers that keeps it on course - probably the most intelligent group of technologists to ever gather. Not only are they clever, but they are committed cypherpunks - anti-state activists. Bitcoin is happening because of fiat and privately owned central banks. Even the most callous capitalist, like Trump, resents the central banks and will slip some dollars into Bitcoin. Litecoin and Ethereum just don't have that edge - and never will.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #5,332
  • Oct 19, 2017 7:28am Oct 19, 2017 7:28am
venzen,

did you analyze for the cryptos that there are advances between full moon and new moon ?
I did this for the EURUSD and it was not proven - Pesavento is wrong in his book:

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...7#post10253307

Sixer
  • #5,333
  • Edited 9:19am Oct 19, 2017 9:02am | Edited 9:19am
Quoting Sixer
venzen, did you analyze for the cryptos that there are advances between full moon and new moon ? I did this for the EURUSD and it was not proven - Pesavento is wrong in his book: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...7#post10253307 Sixer
Sixer, I had mixed results (little reliability) with moon phase analysis when I was trading forex and gold, as you confirm.

However, with a highly emotional commodity, like Bitcoin, driven primarily by greed and fear (of missing out), the moon phase correlations are 80% reliable. Check it out.

Right or wrong, I have not applied this to altcoin analysis because I agree with the developers and analysts like Tone Vays, that the entire altcoin scene is a delusion. Yes, speculative money can be made there, but it cannot last. Hitting the bitcoin price chart with 20x leverage for 15 minutes, on a confirmed trade signal - long or short - is 100x more lucrative than trading some me-too poopcoin while praying to the upside gods. Bitcoin is the super commodity of our time and is paving new ground in price action, in Elliott Wave analysis; and in stupendous upside/downside.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #5,334
  • Oct 19, 2017 9:55am Oct 19, 2017 9:55am
Quoting venzen
{quote} It can also be argued that the money that would have entered the cryptoscam market was diverted to Bitcoin instead. Hence the altcoins couldn't make a new high, for lack of liquidity, and will probably decline as money continues leaving them (for Bitcoin) during the coming super rally. Remember, what makes Bitcoin great is not the blockchain and cryptographic security that all the altcoins are cloning, but its "brain trust" - the specific team of developers that keeps it on course - probably the most intelligent group of technologists to...
Not every alt is a scam.

Syscoin is merge mined and offers a decentralized marketplace (my next iteration will allow for a decentralized database as a service with sidechains and evm smart contracts done in a scalable way) so you can see there is real innovation happening. In syscoin the work I have lets it compete against amazon/ebay allowing for a paradagm shifting competitor edge.

That is one of the few alts offering real utility and not just speculation. Coins like these will survive. I stress the merged mining part.
  • #5,335
  • Oct 19, 2017 10:11am Oct 19, 2017 10:11am
Quoting sidhujag
{quote} Not every alt is a scam. Syscoin is merge mined and offers a decentralized marketplace (my next iteration will allow for a decentralized database as a service with sidechains and evm smart contracts done in a scalable way) so you can see there is real innovation happening. In syscoin the work I have lets it compete against amazon/ebay allowing for a paradagm shifting competitor edge. That is one of the few alts offering real utility and not just speculation. Coins like these will survive. I stress the merged mining part.
Sure sidhujag, I happen to think that Namecoin has potential for anonymity and an escape route from IANA. However, none of these coins can beat bitcoin's price moves. That people are falling for ICO scams and betting big on Wall Street frauds like Ethereum, is what I am speaking about. Buying $1000 worth of Namecoin, or Syscoin, is not going to yield the same profit as betting $1000 on Bitcoin when it moves. I'm only speaking about risk and reward, not saying that every altcoin is out to scam.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #5,336
  • Oct 19, 2017 10:19am Oct 19, 2017 10:19am
sidhujag, also, think about it this way for a moment: The entire Syscoin developer team combined does not equate to even one Greg Maxwell or Pieter Wuille. If computer scientists like Maxwell or Wuille saw an eventual benefit for Syscoin, would they not be involved in that team? They are not. Nor does Blockstream fund the initiative or even mention including its functionality in Bitcoin. I'm not saying Syscoin is not worth while or that it will not eventually fill a space in the market. Only that money flows into the most self-evident innovations. In as much as Bitcoin is rat-poison to capital finance, I support it 100%
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #5,337
  • Oct 19, 2017 11:15am Oct 19, 2017 11:15am
Quoting venzen
sidhujag, also, think about it this way for a moment: The entire Syscoin developer team combined does not equate to even one Greg Maxwell or Pieter Wuille. If computer scientists like Maxwell or Wuille saw an eventual benefit for Syscoin, would they not be involved in that team? They are not. Nor does Blockstream fund the initiative or even mention including its functionality in Bitcoin. I'm not saying Syscoin is not worth while or that it will not eventually fill a space in the market. Only that money flows into the most self-evident innovations....
I am friends with Blockstream developers. They are not the be-all-end all of the crypto-ecosystem. They may be great cryptographers but they know next to knowing about the business side of things. This is my vision I have from a business perspective. I don't know cryptography as well as them and I don't need to. I only need to know how to develop software USING the cryptography. I have probably just as much experience as them as a programmer so I would say I am just as qualified to develop code on top of the protocol. Thus, yes it does make sense to put more emphasis on Blockstream because they are who they are, but that does not mean that some of these other projects are waste of space, some of them will bring actual utility and solidify bitcoin as the gold of crypto while other alts used as utility for different markets such as marketplaces etc.

My next-gen solution may be of interest to some of them but they do not have the bandwidth to care nor spend time analyzing it because there is no room to even breath while they work on Schnor/CT and other cool new developments we will all leverage.

Risk reward, Syscoin tops Bitcoin by a mile. I do not think you understand the ecosystem well enough yet. The coins that make it from the gutter such as us that provide actual utility give some fantastic risk reward scenarios. This is why you see crypto hedge funds spread out into alts. They hit the home runs and it makes it worth while for them to do so. The dominance is creeping up the last little while which makes people like you believe that Bitcoin will give better rewards. ICO scammers are probably cashing out causing the dominance to go up but make no mistake the trend is down, dominance will head down towards 20% while we approach 1 trillion mcap.

The only situation a newcomer should put money into Bitcoin is if they are planning on putting in a few hundred million $ or more because liquidity would then be an issue.
  • #5,338
  • Oct 19, 2017 11:30am Oct 19, 2017 11:30am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Sixer, I had mixed results (little reliability) with moon phase analysis when I was trading forex and gold, as you confirm. However, with a highly emotional commodity, like Bitcoin, driven primarily by greed and fear (of missing out), the moon phase correlations are 80% reliable. Check it out. Right or wrong, I have not applied this to altcoin analysis because I agree with the developers and analysts like Tone Vays, that the entire altcoin scene is a delusion. Yes, speculative money can be made there, but it cannot last. Hitting the bitcoin...
Whilst I think a lot of Alt-coins will be dead at some point, I don't think you can say it's all a delusion...You have to remember that Bitcoin is still only good as a store of value and it is still limited in many other ways. Also, everyone has their own bias and you have to think about this before taking advice from anyone, especially Bitcoin "maximalists" like Tone Vays, as they have all their eggs in one basket and will do what they can to make sure that basket is safe! There is space for multiple cryptos to become and stay mainstream. For example Litecoin for day-to-day transactions or monero for private transactions etc etc. And whilst I think Ethereum is still far away from a finished, stable protocol...you have to agree that the world wants Dapps and there is no competitor with the same backing and the force of intelligent minds that Ethereum has!
  • #5,339
  • Oct 20, 2017 11:33am Oct 20, 2017 11:33am
Quoting copyrat
{quote} Whilst I think a lot of Alt-coins will be dead at some point, I don't think you can say it's all a delusion...You have to remember that Bitcoin is still only good as a store of value and it is still limited in many other ways. Also, everyone has their own bias and you have to think about this before taking advice from anyone, especially Bitcoin "maximalists" like Tone Vays, as they have all their eggs in one basket and will do what they can to make sure that basket is safe! There is space for multiple cryptos to become and stay mainstream....
Couldnt have said it better myself. I am leveraging the EVM to create a scalable execution environment capable of 10k tps.
  • #5,340
  • Oct 20, 2017 1:40pm Oct 20, 2017 1:40pm
Hello Coin traders

Last couple off hours $6000
man this is huge for the coin markets
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