I've been wondering.
Lets assume we have done sufficient statistical back testing (a decade of data) and discovered a mechanical system with a 60% win rate.
Monday we have a loss which was a 40% probability.
Tuesday we had another loss.. Is this still a 40% probability?
What is the probability of having 5 losses in a row (Monday to Friday)
-surely the probability of a loss gets smaller every consecutive loss day..?
Lets assume we have done sufficient statistical back testing (a decade of data) and discovered a mechanical system with a 60% win rate.
Monday we have a loss which was a 40% probability.
Tuesday we had another loss.. Is this still a 40% probability?
What is the probability of having 5 losses in a row (Monday to Friday)
-surely the probability of a loss gets smaller every consecutive loss day..?
Well sir, looks like you're playing checkers at a chess match.